Arsenal 5-1 Manchester City Review

Premier League GW24

As has become frequent this season, the loss to Arsenal is one we have to take on the chin as the team continues to deal with the same persistent, deeper issues that won’t improve until next season. Guardiola has admitted the mistake of not rebuilding sooner; the club has acted in the transfer window, new signings will shift poor performers out of the lineup, and injured players will return. But the hungry, composed, and sharp Manchester City we are used to won’t be seen until next season. In the meantime, it’s about building towards that, making the top four, and bringing new/young players into the team.

Notable Stats:

• Manchester City have conceded 4+ goals in a game for the fourth time this season, which is now the most in a single campaign in Pep Guardiola's managerial career.

• Declan Rice yesterday became just the second player to provide an assist for two different teenagers in a single Premier League match (Lewis-Skelly and Nwaneri), after his manager Mikel Arteta did so in April 2007 (Vaughan and Anichebe).

• Ethan Nwaneri's goal ended a passing sequence of 36 uninterrupted passes in a move that lasted one minute & 54 seconds and involved every Arsenal outfield player. It was the longest passing move leading to a Premier League goal since September 2023.

• Mikel Arteta is now unbeaten in five games against Manchester City (W2 D3); the joint-longest run by a manager against Pep Guardiola, after Thomas Tuchel (2016-2021) and Jürgen Klopp (2021-2022).

Game Stats:

Arsenal 5-1 Manchester City

• xG: 1.0 - 0.8

• xThreat: 0.93 - 1.46

• Possession: 45.8% - 54.2%

• Field Tilt: 39.0% - 61.0%

• Penalty Box Shots: 8 - 5

• Deep Entries: 9 - 7

• PPDA: 13.0 - 12.7

• High Turnovers: 5 - 2

Manchester City is certainly in a different period from the losing run earlier in the season. However, some problems have persisted throughout the whole season.

One of those problems is how many errors they make leading to an opponent's shot. Brentford (H) and Liverpool (A) gave up three. Arsenal (A) gave up four. In half of their matches (18), they've given up at least one error, leading to opponents' shot on goal, and are averaging 0.81 per match.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Arsenal set up well to press Manchester City high up the pitch, shifting away from their usual 4-4-2 that brought them success last season. Havertz would look to push the keeper one way, and Odegaard started deeper to pounce on Stones. Martinelli and Trossard went deeper to cover passes into Gvardiol on the left and Akanji on the right, respectively. Miles Lewis-Skelly could jump to Nunes if needed and Timber to Savinho if needed. Gabriel is tracking Haaland, Saliba on Marmoush, and Partey on Foden. Rice was then able to jump up between Kovacic/Bernardo.

For Manchester City, the staggered pivot and full-backs wide were the way out of the pressure, but there were plenty of issues in getting there. You don’t have Ederson in goal, so Arsenal could afford to leave more space at the back and shift across when needed. Stones is not left-footed, so he doesn’t open up his body well enough to make the passes to Gvardiol/Bernardo or carry into space. Akanji has struggled when pressed directly on the ball, Trossard did that throughout the match. Foden dropped deeper later in the first half to help elevate that pressure.

That aggressive press paid off from minute one; the square pass to Akanji was intercepted by Trossard, Havertz was put through on goal, and Odegaard opened the scoring. The start to a match Manchester City did not need when proven so fragile throughout this season. Guardiola would have wanted a left-footed defender in place of Stones ideally so that the pass was made to Bernardo, who was free, but the pass across to Akanji is as poor as his effort to control it.

Manchester City did well to regain control of the match in the first half and had the advantage in the midfield with the 3-4-3 diamond Guardiola used with Marmoush and Foden in the half-spaces, but the passing ability of Kovacic and Bernardo playing vertically didn’t exploit that advantage well enough. Nor was the first touch of Marmoush good enough on a couple of occasions. Bernardo helped to create some overload on the right half-space, which meant they could feed Nunes the ball consistently, arriving onto it in space but he did not take advantage. Reluctant to cross or take on a player 1v1. Mentioned this last season with Akanji being the ‘spare man’ against Real Madrid in the second leg of the CL Quarter Final. It matters who your spare man is.

The time Manchester City used this advantage was when Savinho moved into the right channel, left unmarked to provide a cross to Haaland to score. A fantastic pass from Foden, movement/cross by Savinho, and movement/finish from Haaland. That’s three of the future City team in this rebuild to be excited about playing together more often.

The poor pass from Foden across the pitch is jumped on by Partey, who isn’t closed down and allowed to shoot. Deflected goal that kills any momentum City had after scoring. A moment that Arsenal took advantage of, the positional rotations against a team that has struggled all season to have defenders and midfielders track players out of possession left the opening for Lewis-Skelly to drive into and score.

Shortly after the third goal, Guardiola made a couple of substitutions. De Bruyne (72’) for Marmoush and McAtee (72’) for Foden. Instructing the two full-backs to advance further forward made Manchester City more vulnerable due to a poor counter press being exposed, and Arsenal was able to score their fourth goal. On a fast break, the team conceded a league-leading number of them this season; Kai Havertz scored for Arsenal.

Ethan Nwaneri provided the final blow with his goal after an excellent switch out to the right side from Declan Rice, something Arsenal are not known for doing under Arteta with Saka in the team. It is far too passive and unorganized from Manchester City to allow Rice the space to switch, let alone Nwaneri being free and then being shown inside to shoot. Whilst it’s a big moment for Arsenal, seeing an academy graduate score, it’s built on a series of poor defensive errors from Manchester City that lacked any intensity towards the end of the match. That we have seen all season long.

This is the most frustrating part of the match, to know that at 1-1, the game was in the balance, and for all Arsenal impressed with their aggressive press, Manchester City had still managed the game relatively well given the version we are used to seeing this season. It’s poor individual errors that gave Arsenal all of their chances, and that was the same from Foden for the second goal. Carless pass across the pitch that Partey pounces on. From there, we see the usual drop-off in intensity. Arsenal capitalized to get the statement win they’ve long wanted.

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Moving Forward

Chelsea play later today against West Ham and have the chance to overtake Manchester City by two points, but the weekend as a whole produced some good results in the race for the top four as Bournemouth, Villa, and Newcastle all lost. The latter two losses were games they should have won. Losing to Arsenal is not going to make or break the top-four race for Manchester City.

Next up is quite possibly the most bizarre back-to-back fixtures you’ve seen for a long time as the team travels to play Leyton Orient in the FA Cup before welcoming Real Madrid at the Etihad midweek. They also lost in the league this weekend. The FA Cup match is a perfect opportunity to rest players and introduce new signings to minutes.

It looks like as the transfer window closes, Manchester City will have brought in Omar Marmoush (25), Vitor Reis (19), Abdukodir Khusanov (20), Nico Gonzalez (23), Juma Bah (18), Christian McFarlane (18), and Claudio Echeverri (19). Juma Bah has been sent out on loan to RC Lens, and the last two players are not expected to pick up many if any minutes during this season. But it’s Omar Marmoush and Nico Gonzalez who’ll likely be starters for the rest of this season. Starting the rebuild which will see the majority of the outgoings happen in the summer, 5+ in my opinion, and more arrivals.

Ederson is expected to be back in training and then available for the next match, we will likely see him return against Madrid. Ortega's performance playing out from the back against Arsenal is another reminder of what the team misses without Ederson. Oscar Bobb has been training for several weeks now, and it is possible he will return in the FA Cup this weekend. Doku, Dias, and Ake's return dates are all unknown, and it’s the two defenders we desperately need back fit for the rest of this season.

As mentioned at the start, individual mistakes have plagued this season, and the one by Akanji at the start of the match against Arsenal set the tone. Ortega followed up shortly after. You simply cannot expect the team to be confident if they are seeing teammates do that every game. It feeds into us being risk-averse, not wanting to be brave on the ball, playing the passes between the lines, picking out a run in behind, or willing to cross the ball into the box.

The positive is knowing we have Erling Haaland, along with Marmoush joining, to pick out upfront. If the team can create chances, they’ll have no problem scoring enough to make the top four. Foden included in that.

This is another area that the team must improve. Rodri's return will do that next season, and Nico Gonzalez will also play these passes, but there is no point in having the excellent runs of Marmoush/Haaland if you don’t have the players to pick out those runs. Part of why I think Adam Wharton would be an excellent midfield addition in the summer is that he’s going to spot and play those passes.

Next up for Manchester City is Leyton Orient on the 8th of February at 12:15 (GMT). The preview for the match will be published on Friday.