Brentford vs Manchester City Preview

Premier League GW21

As well as the team has done in moments, on certain parts of the pitch, it’s against Brentford that’ll be the real test of whether the team is trending in the right direction. The club is active in the transfer market but the midfield reinforcement won’t be here for this match, so there are still the holes in transition that a good team can expose. Brentford are set up perfectly to do that.

I’ve mentioned the G+A leaders for a few weeks now, and we’ve now got Doku and Nunes with 10+ goal contributions—Doku and Foden with 5 goals. That’s trending in the right direction, but we’ve not yet got the standout secondary scorer we need.

Previous Results:

• Manchester City have won their last two Premier League matches, against Leicester City (0-2), and West Ham (4-1). They also beat Salford City (8-0) in the FA Cup 3rd round.

• Brentford lost to Arsenal (1-3) but also beat Southampton (0-5) in their last two Premier League matches. Also being knocked out of the FA Cup by Plymouth Argyle (0-1) on the weekend.

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City is without Rodri, Oscar Bobb, Ruben Dias, and John Stones.

• Brentford is without Joshua Dasilva, Ethan Pinnock, Kristoffer Ajer, Aaron Hickey, Igor Thiago, Gustavo Nunes, and Ryan Trevitt. Ben Mee is expected to be back in the squad.

Interesting Brentford Stats:

• Manchester City do not have two 10+ goal scorers in the Premier League this season, but Brentford have two. Bryan Mbeumo (13) and Yoane Wissa (10).

• Mikkel Damsgaard has already matched his career best for assists in a single league season (6) with still eighteen matches to play.

• No other Premier League goalkeeper has faced more shots on target (121) or made more saves (87) than Mark Flekken this season.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Brentford

This season Thomas Frank has shifted it up as we saw at the Etihad earlier last year, they’re here to press and play out from the back where they can. Against City (A) Brentford targeted the RHS to build out as Flekken put balls over the top to Nathan Collins or used the LHS as Damsgaard being the free man helped to find Mbeumo running off Akanji into space. Which had more success than it should have done since Man City pressed very aggressively in the first half (4-4-2), leaving the two CBs without midfield support and the midfielders with too much ground to cover.

Gvardiol came on at half-time, and Manchester City shifted to a 4-1-4-1 in their press as they adjusted to how Brentford was playing. Ederson continued to target Haaland in behind given the man-to-man press at the back, which eventually led to the game-winner.

They have only won once in the last five, it’s not a Brentford team that is flying, but they do have their most dangerous players fit, which they didn’t have last season. I think Frank will take more risk and play a 4-3-3 since Brentford is at home, with the form of Schade, and the holes Manchester City have. Very little reason to not play the team that beat Southampton 0-5.

One to Watch - Mikkel Damsgaard

Damsgaard has led Brentford for assists (6) and progressive passes (115). He’s second for key passes (30), passes into the final third (75), and passes into the penalty area (25). Against Manchester City they’ll get chances to break in transition, the spaces will be there, and in Mbeumo/Wissa you have the strikers to take those chances in front of goal. The problem is making the right pass before that, and Mikkel Damsgaard has been that player this season getting it right.

Manchester City

We’ve seen who got rested against Salford City in the FA Cup on the weekend, it’s quite clear that most if not all of those players are going to start tonight, and you’d hope the rest will give them an advantage. On top of the confidence, this three-game winning streak can bring. Damsgaard and Jensen had to play ninety minutes against Plymouth. Lewis-Potter, Mbeumo, Collins, and Wissa all had to come on for 20+ minutes in the second half to try to win the match.

There is some question over playing Rico Lewis at RB, given that Guardiola played four CBs last season away to Brentford. Did the performance of Nunes/O’Reilly do enough to convince him?

I’d also wonder about the keeper choice, now we are not sure about whether Ederson has been displaced, but his kicking long into the front line is absolutely something that will be useful against Brentford.

One to Watch - Erling Haaland

Regardless of how well the team defends, if Erling Haaland has chances then Manchester City can win the match. Since the Arsenal draw earlier in the season, Haaland has only overperformed his xG for a match twice, against Crystal Palace and West Ham. Every other one he’s underperformed. You can ignore the likes of Aston Villa (A) with 0.08 xG or Liverpool (A) with 0.11xG for him, part of this poor run has been games with little created for him. But it’s 1.09 xG against Spurs (H), 2.10 xG against Brighton (A), and 1.6 xG against Bournemouth where he must take the chances.

Final Predictions

Predicted Lineup:

Predicted Score: Brentford 1 - 2 Manchester City