Brighton vs Manchester City Preview

Premier League GW11

Heading into the final away match of the run, the last one before the International break, the team is in desperate need of that break to regroup but more importantly, they need to get back to winning. Playing Brighton (A) in the evening slot, against talented young players and a promising manager, this is a moment for them to step up and get the win. Not through a brilliant bit of individual skill but by delivering a performance as a team.

Previous Results

• Manchester City have lost their last three matches in a row, across all competitions. Losing against Spurs (League Cup), Bournemouth (Premier League), and Sporting CP (Champions League).

• Brighton has not won since beating Newcastle (0-1) on the 19th of October. After that, they drew against Wolves (2-2), lost to Liverpool in the League Cup (2-3), and lost to Liverpool in the Premier League (2-1).

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City is without Rodri, Oscar Bobb, Ruben Dias, John Stones, and Jack Grealish.

• Brighton are without Adam Webster (thigh), James Milner (thigh), Minteh, and Solomon March (knee). Joao Pedro and Matt O’Reilly have a big chance of being in the squad after a late fitness check. Yasin Ayari, also injured, has a small chance of making the team.

Interesting Brighton Stats:

• Brighton are the only team in the top 10 of the Premier League with a negative xGD (-2.1).

• Only Manchester City (588) and Tottenham (548) have completed more progressive passes than Brighton (470) this season. They have only conceded one corner kick goal this season.

• Brighton (36.3%) has the lowest success rate for take-ons in the Premier League this season despite attempting the 2nd most. Manchester City by comparison has a success rate of 46.5%.

• Only Ipswich Town (150) has more miscontrols than Brighton (149) this season.

Brighton spread around the goals this season with ten different scorers in the Premier League, only three have more than one goal, and only one has more than two goals. That’s Danny Welbeck, who has been in great form for Brighton at the start of the season, scoring six goals, and always finding himself in space in the box or arriving at the 6-yard box at the right time.

They have only lost to Chelsea and Liverpool this season across all competitions, getting a draw against Arsenal (A), and Nottingham Forest (H) who have been in excellent form. This shows just how well Fabian Hurzeler has started as a young manager in a new league, with several new players to integrate into the squad and taking over from a manager as influential as De Zerbi was at Brighton for his short time there.

Here is how they lined up against Liverpool in the Premier League last week, with only Yasin Ayari from that team being an injury concern this week I’d expect something quite similar. Perhaps Baleba comes into midfield who has been excellent this season, very much the next big Brighton transfer in the making. Simon Adingra surprisingly seems to be struggling to get himself minutes so could make an impact off the bench, same for Evan Ferguson. Brajan Gruda is another one who could be involved off the bench, he’s incredibly talented and will be quite the player once he gets going for Brighton.

Kaoru Mitoma is the obvious threat down their left side to worry about in this match, who leads Brighton for goal-creating actions (5), assists (2), progressive carries (57), passes into the penalty area (13) and carries into the penalty area (24).

Pep Guardiola spoke before the match about Nathan Ake still not being back to full fitness, which makes me think there is a good chance Simpson-Pusey starts next to Akanji and he fully deserves it.

The team cannot afford to have players giving away the ball so cheaply as they did against Sporting CP, Savinho and Gvardiol are the two most obvious examples from that match. They also cannot afford to be so easily run through in midfield. Your number six out of possession has to do more than a training cone, read the situation, and be in a position to be aggressive in duels, recovering the ball before the opposition gets into dangerous positions.

Final Predictions

Predicted Lineup:

Predicted Score: Brighton 1 - 3 Manchester City

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