The time has come for derby day this Sunday afternoon, at a time where Manchester City need a win for their title charge and United to hang on in the race for top five. Illustrating just how far these two clubs have come over the last decade, one on the rise as the other descends. City have been on both sides of a derby day upset, a constant reminder that even though they are favorites tomorrow a upset is always on the cards.

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Starting Point

Notable Injuries:

• For Manchester City, Gvardiol (ankle) could be in contention for a bench appearance, returning to light training. Jack Grealish will be unavailable following his injury setback against Luton Town earlier in the week.

• For Manchester United they will be missing Mason Mount (calf), Lisandro Martinez (knee), Luke Shaw (muscle), Aaron Wan-Bissaka (unknown), Harry Maguire (unknown), Rasmus Hojlund (unknown), Tyrell Malacia (knee) and Anthony Martial (knee). Bruno Fernandes could miss the game after being seen limping away from their midweek game against Notts Forest.

Interesting Stats:

• Manchester United suffered their 10th loss of the Premier League season against Fulham last week. Only in 2013/14 and 2021/22 (both 12) have they lost more games in a single campaign.

• Against no team has Erling Haaland scored more Premier League goals than his five against Man Utd. Only Sergio Aguero (eight) has ever netted more against Man Utd for Man City.

• Manchester United have a 100% away record in 2024. Manchester City are unbeaten in the Premier League at home since 2022, when defeated by Brentford.

Man City vs United Preview

Premier League

General Thoughts:

• Against Luton Town Pep Guardiola rested Phil Foden, Rodri, Ederson and Ruben Dias fully. All key players for this match and the title run in. Similar will likely follow in midweek against Copenhagen. Could well work out in our favor that all of those players are sharp and fresh against United. All should start.

• The link up between Haaland and De Bruyne will be essential to City winning this match. Whether there is space to break into or a tight low block to unlock, if those two are on form City win the game comfortably. Both expected to start.

• Manchester City best front six is Erling Haaland, De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden, Rodri and [X]. With Grealish out injured again in a very inconsistent season, that last spot remains open. Jeremy Doku, Matheus Nunes, Oscar Bobb, Mateo Kovacic and Julian Alvarez are all the players pushing for that spot. Will be interesting to see if any of them nail down that spot for the remaining run of the season or not. All have good arguments to play this game.

• Walker or Akanji? For right back this season Walker has been a constant but last season he found himself used for specific game match ups. Since Walker played against United at Old Trafford, putting in a good performance I expect he will get the nod this game.

• Nathan Ake will be the most likely to start given Gvardiol has not fully returned from injury. Next week that could change.

• John Stones must play the game, step into midfield with Rodri and offer the control in possession City need to pin Manchester United back in their own third. He’s now very close to the fitness and sharpness he had towards the end of last season, plagued by injury this time. His movement into midfield gives Rodri all the time and space he needs to dominate and takes away the chance United have to shut him down through man marking.

• Julian Alvarez is one question mark over this line up, he played in the game at Old Trafford in a place you’d expect De Bruyne will take on Sunday. There have been games Guardiola has persisted with him in midfield despite City looking much more fluid without him.

Opposition Setup:

• Expected 11: Onana, Dalot, Varane, Lindelof, Amrabat, Casemiro, Mainoo, Antony, Fernandes, Garnacho, Rashford
  
  Significant amount of injuries in their team mean City can only be confident of favorable match ups for our defenders in Rashford, Garnacho and Antony.

• MNF did an analysis of the space Manchester United give by having a front six that push up to press but a back four that are sat off deep being conservative. The kind of space Erling Haaland and KDB would link up in, similar to the Luton game (FA Cup) if they are given it. The kind of space Foden could drift into and receive the ball on the half turn.
  
  That was at a home game, you would expect coming away to the Etihad would mean United will not be as aggressive with their front six pressing unless they want to lose the game early on.

• United have the highest number of shots blocked in the league this season, if they are set up to defend deep against Manchester City then we could see a game with City needing to be patient, looking for a mistake to open them up. All of this comes down to their manager who has chopped and changed his approach to each game, never really finding something that sticks successfully.
  

  If you look at the map included below of their shots conceded in the Premier League this season, they have struggled to limit the opposition getting into their box and that feeds into why they have so many blocked shots. Haaland just needs one of them, that opens up the game and opens up more space to exploit.

Compare that to the goal map of Erling Haaland this season, all competitions. Exactly where he will want space to shoot.

Ones to Watch: 

• Manchester City: Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland link up. We saw it midweek being almost telepathic and with the space United have allowed centrally in previous games, they should be looking to shine again Sunday afternoon.

• Manchester United: Erik Ten Haag sits in the hot seat this weekend, City are in the process of moving up the gears for a title race so his team set up from the kick off is the only chance they have to get a result. They need to have a well executed plan given how poor they performed in the game at Old Trafford.

Predicted Lineup: Ederson, Walker, Stones, Dias, Ake, Rodri, Kovacic, KDB, Foden, Bernardo, Haaland

Predicted Score: Manchester City 3 - 0 Manchester United

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