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The Evolution of Josko Gvardiol at Manchester City 23/24

Josko Gvardiol has had an immense run of performances during the title run-in this season, of the last nine games played he’s provided a goal-creating action in seven of them. Scored five goals in his last eight games and been part of a defense that’s kept four clean sheets in the last five games. Has Gvardiol unlocked something within his game or have these performances been a long time coming?

Before going any further, earlier in the season I put together a thread on Gvardiol and his journey to Manchester City. Crossing paths quite a few times which you can find here.

If you want to stay up to date with the team’s minutes this season then check out our google sheet here. You can see how many players completed ninety minutes and take a step back on the season as whole through this sheet.

Before Manchester City

Gvardiol began playing football at the age of six, at the Tresnjevka Youth Academy before being spotted by and eventually moving to Dinamo Zagreb in 2010. Quickly rising through the academy and displaying his promising mental and physical attributes as a central defender. Comfortable on the ball, mature decision making and robust in tackles. He was displaying early on all the tools needed to be a modern defender and the mentality to achieve those heights. When asked at 17 years of age what his biggest strength is, Gvardiol answered “Calmness with the ball”.

Dinamo Zagreb 20/21

His last season at Dinamo Zagreb had him playing primarily at left back (28/41 games) providing width and using his ball carrying ability down the left side. The main option for Dinamo at left back Marin Leovac had issues with injuries and fitness which opened the door for Gvardiol to slot in.

Aggressive and well timed in his defensive duels, he had some improvements to make in his positioning for aerial duels but was still very capable in the air that season. Gvardiol would position himself higher up the pitch to read opposition and use his aggression in the press.

His real strength, something that is essential for a modern defender, is progressing the ball. Great vision to spot passes and provides them firmly at the feet of his teammates. Forcing the pace in the buildup and giving his teammates the confidence that in dangerous positions Gvardiol will find you. Throughout that season at Dinamo, even when he was pressed by two players Gvardiol would keep his composure and find the progressive pass to his attackers.

RB Leipzig 21/22

Making the move to Germany, initially Josko Gvardiol slotted into their defense as the rock at the back which would read the game and put out fires. Operating as the left sided defender in the 3-5-2 formation. Aggressive pressing on the front foot and providing well-timed tackles. But over time that role evolved as his ability on the ball was used as a crucial component of the RB Leipzig buildup.

In that 3-5-2 formation, Gvardiol will push up high and wide in possession and most of his starts came at CB (38/46). Some starts as a left back (8) and some as a central defender when the team swapped to a back four. Ranking 4th in the Bundesliga that season for passes into the final third (170) and 9th for progressive passes (157). 9th highest successful take-on % (75.5).

Advancing the ball out from the back, connecting to the wing-back or midfield pivot and providing his teammates the ball in dangerous positions. That’s Gvardiol’s job. Once in the middle third of the pitch, he’s able to pick out the runs in behind by teammates with passes over the top or firm driven through balls.

RB Leipzig 22/23

Heading into the following season with Leipzig saw a shift in formation to a 4-2-2-2 under Marco Rose and Gvardiol used as a LCB in a back four. His strengths to progress the ball through bursting solo runs from deep was evident throughout the season. Still key a component of their buildup but an increase in his defensive responsibilities.

For his first season with Leipzig he was able to get into the middle third and progress his team into the final third. This time he’s more focused on moving Leipzig from defensive third into the middle third and his progressive carries were just one of the ways of doing that. Incredibly difficult to shake off the ball with his strength and balance.

In the Bundesliga that season Gvardiol was 7th for pass completion % (89.1), 7th highest progressive carrying distance (4,336), 8th most touches (2,369) and the highest successful take-on % (88.9).

Adept at switching the play with long balls to he forward and determined to get the team into the final third quickly. That’s evident from the pace of his passes. In the air he’s not as dominant and it’s why a left-back role suits him better but with experience and work on his positioning that should improve to match up with his aggressive style.

When it comes to interceptions and recoveries though, Gvardiol is brilliant, reading the game and timing them right. Which then feeds into one of his strengths, quickly turning the defense into attack by bursting into space with the ball. He would get caught a few times during the season looking for the complicated pass rather than the simple one. That’s something you’d expect to be ironed out at Manchester City…

Moving to Manchester

August 5th 2023 it’s announced Josko Gvardiol will move to Manchester City for £77M and not long after that he was in the squad for the game against Burnley, appearing as a substitute. The fee was clearly a headline among the media but what was missed by the majority is that City have bought a defender with the skill set and physicality to become one of the best the Premier League have ever seen.

Let’s look at a few different games this season from Gvardiol. Has role his changed over time or is it more to do with him gaining confidence in his ability and him becoming comfortable in the team/system?

Manchester City 1-1 Sevilla

His first start for City was against Sevilla in the UEFA Super Cup and it gave everyone a clear view of his skill set compared to Nathan Ake at left back. Capable, willing and determined to progress the ball into the final third down the left side. Composed on the ball and confident getting out of a press. Not to similar from the performances we’ve seen of late during the title run-in.

Chelsea 4-4 Manchester City

Below in the touch map for his game against Chelsea and you’ll notice a pretty clear lack of touches in and around the opposition box. Gvardiol failed to beat the Chelsea RB at any point and in a chaotic game at Stamford Bridge, not make an impact in the final third.

At fault for the Sterling goal with an individual mistake. Although he makes 51/54 passes and wins 4/6 ground duels it does not matter if you are going to make an error leading to a goal. Brutal as it is, that was a lesson for Gvardiol to learn more so at Manchester City.

Aston Villa 1-0 Manchester City

This game is one of the few losses Manchester City had in the season and is a game many fans will remember as a poor team performance. Injuries and suspensions to one side, City struggled to impose themselves in the game. You will also remember the mistake by Gvardiol who attempts to push up on Leon Bailey, normally something he times well but not for that one.

Now if we just look at Gvardiol individually during that game, he wins 10/12 ground duels, completes 51/59 passes (86%) and has three successful take-ons. All very good metrics but it was his 3rd lowest number of touches in the final third all season and he made the one mistake that led to the winning goal. The demand for him at City is to be flawless defensively since one mistake can be punishing.

Guardiola touched on his development recently last week, talking about how shy he was initially by focusing on fitting in and being worried about making a mistake. That fits with some of the performances we mentioned above, not all as he had plenty of very good games but the ones against Chelsea and Aston Villa in particular were performances by a player trying not to make a mistake rather than just playing the game that’s in front of him confidently.

Brighton 0-4 Manchester City

In this game you saw the strengths of Manchester City pressing aggressively and pushing high against an opposition, two important parts of that press are Kyle Walker and Josko Gvardiol. Once the players in front of them force the opposition down the flank the full back’s must be aggressive on the winger to not allow any relief to the pressure and force a turnover. Timing that movement well. Walker played a key part in the goal that came from a turnover but both him and Gvardiol were excellent timing their press in this game.

Manchester City 5-1 Wolves

Here is his touch map against Wolves playing in the normal high and wide left-back role we’ve seen all season. Getting into the final third and the opposition box, this was one of his best games all season for take-ons by succeeding 3/4.

Here is an example of his late movement into the box against Wolves, which we also saw against Real Madrid (A) getting on the edge of the box to shoot but in the game against Wolves Gvardiol would arrive later inside the box for a cut back or to jump on errors after a shot. If the full back does pick him up then Gvardiol will keep his width to drag the FB over and open up space between the RB and RCB that the likes of Phil Foden can run into.

This movement is why leading up the penalty he goes unnoticed, moving into the box until too late for RAN to see. 👇

Fulham 0-4 Manchester City

One of his best performances for City was against Fulham (A) with his attacking contributions, advancing into the opposition box in open play and set plays. Here is his touch map against Fulham (A) below and you’ll notice how much of a presence he’s become in the final third. Willing to be aggressive towards the corner flag, winning balls from the opposition full-back, drift late into the box unmarked and drive towards it with the ball.

He’s a key player within the system that Guardiola has developed this season, using their full-backs to push high and wide. Earlier in the season Gvardiol was the more reserved of the two full-backs with Walker almost playing like a winger at times and that was linked to Foden playing RW.

Coming into the run-in we’ve seen the two of them swap to a degree with Gvardiol utilizing his physicality to receive high up the pitch and ball carrying to drive City in the final third. Kyle Walker on the other hand is more conservative in order to deal with the opposition winger better but will pick his moments for getting runs in-behind like we saw against Brighton and Tottenham.

Gvardiol is a frequent passing option out wide left for Akanji, Kovacic and Rodri against Fulham in the first half. 👇

That same shape you’ll notice here with Gvardiol standing inside the opposition half and Kyle Walker on the far side free in space. 👇

For the first goal against Fulham, Foden pulls Palhinha deep with his run and opens up the space inside for Gvardiol to drive into and play a one-two with De Bruyne.

Here is an example of his positioning prior to the Foden goal against Fulham. Gvardiol does an excellent job of drifting out wide and then moving towards the middle of the box to avoid being marked.

Josko Gvardiol Minutes 23/24

As mentioned above, you can find the minutes for all outfield players this season tracked in our google sheet here. With City going back and fourth with RB Leipzig on the fee it wasn’t until the Burnley game Gvardiol was in the squad, missing out on pre-season and the Community Shield match.

Heading into the final two games (West Ham, Manchester United) of the season Josko Gvardiol is 10th in the squad for most minutes (3,299), the only new signing to make it onto that list. He missed four games due to injury just before the run-in began (Copenhagen, Chelsea, Brentford, Bournemouth & Luton Town) from February to the start of March which would have likely put him on at least 3,600 minutes by now.

Completed 90’ thirty three times
Unused substitute eleven times
Five games missed due to injury
One game not in the squad

For RB Leipzig last season (22/23) Gvardiol completed 3,002 minutes in all competitions so despite making a big move and all the difficulties that come with that, he’s played more minutes for Manchester City (3,299) this season that his last in Germany.

Minutes 23/24 Back Four Combinations

As mentioned above, you can find the games for every back four combination this season tracked in our google sheet here.

Pep Guardiola will change his defense quite frequently throughout the season, in the Premier League for example Arsenal have used three different CB pairings to the fourteen used by Manchester City. But for a back four let’s look at what he’s used the most and where Josko Gvardiol fits into that…

Here are the five most used this season 👇

Although he arrived as a new signing, Gvardiol is part of our two most used back four combinations this season and a key part of the lineup that’s been locked in for the title run-in.

Comparing Gvardiol 22/23 vs 23/24 Stats via FBREF

Coming to Manchester City the role for Josko Gvardiol changed quite a bit so let’s look at some stats between those two seasons (league only). For Manchester City he’s played 2,238 minutes compared to the 2,170 minutes for RB Leipzig last season.

Goal Contributions
23/24 (4G 1A) vs 22/23 (1G)
Progressive Passes Received
23/24 (108) vs 22/23 (4)
Progressive Passes Made
 23/24 (134) vs 22/23 (116)
Progressive Carries
23/24 (61) vs 22/23 (27)
Shots
23/24 (31) vs 22/23 (14)
Long Passes Completed
23/24 (76) vs 22/23 (217)
Short Passes Completed
23/24 (873) vs 22/23 (588)
Shot Creating Actions
23/24 (51) vs 22/23 (29)
Touches in the Attacking 3rd
23/24 (584) vs 22/23 (71)
Carries Into Penalty Area
23/24 (14) vs 22/23 (3)

It’s quite clear away from a purple patch with the goal contributions in recent games, Gvardiol has had to completed shift his role compared to last season at Leipzig. He’s much higher up the pitch receiving the ball and depended on in the buildup to be strong in possession. A key role in the final third for Manchester City this season, not just providing width but turning up the tempo with his passes into the half space and driving into the box.

Now we are seeing his impact on creating shots and goals…

The Future Progression of Gvardiol

In March I did a review of our summer signings and I’ve included below my thoughts at the time on Gvardiol which was prior to the run he went on scoring five goals in his last eight matches. 👇

Here is his heat maps across the last four seasons, you can see his progression from left back at Dinamo Zagreb to central defender at Leipzig and back to left back with Manchester City. In all of those seasons he’s playing a significant role to progress the team down the left side. At Manchester City he’s putting all those skills together to move the team not only into the final third but to then contribute creatively and score.

If you look at the match logs for Josko Gvardiol via FBREF which you can find here. You’ll notice that there is a lot of stats he’s putting up across the season like take-ons with only 6 of the 42 games started has Gvardiol failed register a successful one. Apart from the games against Burnley (A), Newcastle (H) and Nottingham Forest (H) Gvardiol registers at least ten touch in the final third every game this season played.

However, if we zoom in on the recent run of games he’s had over twenty touches in the final third for five of the last seven matches. Providing a goal creating action in six of the last eight games. As I’ve pointed out throughout this post, Gvardiol has been incredible for Dinamo Zagreb progressing the ball. It’s the impact in the final third that Josko Gvardiol has started to unlock in these recent run of games, although we are yet to see that consistently over a season it is a promising sign.

Future Development?

Josko Gvardiol doesn’t have any significant weaknesses to his game but he does have areas to improve upon. First of which is in the air. Playing at left back means he won’t be engaging in as many as a central defender but it’s still something that you’d expect him to improve on with experience. He has all the physical attributes to do so.

Last season playing as a central defender with RB Leipzig Gvardiol was winning 1.78 per 90 and a success rate of 55.8% which is a good number but not dominant. Virgil Van Dijk for example wins 3.97 per 90 and at a success rate of 81.4%. Now he’s one of the best in the world in the air but it does show the gap between himself and Gvardiol on that specific skill.

Crossing is an area of his game to develop if he’s going to continue playing at left back for Manchester City. Excellent ability to provide through balls, switches and long passes but crossing is one he’s reluctant to use despite being comfortable shooting with both feet. Antonee Robinson, who has been fantastic this season for Fulham, averages 3.67 per 90 crosses made and 0.73 per 90 crosses into the penalty area. Gvardiol provides 1.33 crosses per 90 and 0.12 per 90 crosses into the penalty area for comparison.

Aerial duels is one for making him more dominant as a defender, crossing a skill that will benefit him hugely in the left back role and last one to mention is the Stones Role which I do believe is a reality for Josko Gvardiol. Bursting runs from CB he’s shown all throughout his career and the development of his skill set in the final third, getting comfortable in the box at left back will be what makes him a more dangerous threat as the spare man than Akanji and Stones have been.

For 24/25 it will likely be a consistent season playing left back and with the aim of putting up the recent performances more consistently across a season. Rounding out his skills in the final third. But the season after that, it would not surprise me to see a shift under a new manager (or Guardiola extending) to CB.

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