Exit Interview: Julian Alvarez

Manchester City and Atletico Madrid have agreed a fee for Julian Alvarez worth up to €95M.

Julian Alvarez arrived from River Plate for a fee reported around £14M and off the back of a couple of outstanding individual seasons for the club. Adapted very quickly to life in Manchester and the Premier League. Scoring off the bench against Liverpool in the Community Shield. Scoring against Chelsea in the League Cup. Scoring a goal against Copenhagen in his full home Champions League debut. Scoring two goals on his full home Premier League debut against Nottingham Forest. Although Alvarez was behind Haaland he made his mark off the bench as a goal scorer and when getting to start he delivered goals in his first season.

Some of his biggest moments during the 22/23 season included a winner against Fulham 2-1 (H). Providing a goal and assist in the 1-2 win against Fulham (A). The game-winner against Chelsea 1-0 (H). His goal against Real Madrid (H), off the bench, in the Champions League Semi-Finals.

In the 23/24 season, we saw a change in his role as Kevin De Bruyne was injured for the first half of the season. Now we saw Julian Alvarez the number ten. He didn’t quite look fluid on the eye but he delivered in the first half of the season the numbers. Four goals and three assists in the first nine Premier League matches.

Providing a goal and assist off the bench as Manchester City beat RB Leipzig 1-3 (A) in the Champions League. Scoring the game-winner against Newcastle 1-0 (H) in the Premier League. Providing two assists against West Ham 1-3 (A) win. During the injury to Erling Haaland in the winter period, Alvarez stepped up with four goals and one assist in six Premier League matches as the striker.

Included below is a thread on the performances of Alvarez during the 23/24 season.

Underlying Numbers

Now let’s turn our attention to the underlying numbers behind Julian Alvarez’s time at Manchester City. There is no better place to start than his minutes’ progression across the two seasons.

He played 2,423 minutes in his debut season and increased that total to 3,479 last season. That saw a huge jump in his minutes played in the Premier League.

But the increased minutes weren’t the issue for Alvarez. It was his role as the main striker. Last season Erling Haaland was injured for several games and Kevin De Bruyne had half the season off with an injury.

If Alvarez only played 1,292 minutes as a CF last season then how can he expect much more during the 24/25 season?

Here are the two heat maps for Alvarez during the 22/23 season (top) and the 23/24 season (bottom). Moving from his role as a backup striker in the first season, who could drop in to link up play and make runs in-behind, to an attacking midfielder operating across the final third.

The stats behind the two seasons back up this big shift in role for Alvarez. In the Premier League he increased his touches in the final third per 90 from 22.1 to 33.6. His key passes per 90 went from 1.1 to 2.28. Passes completed per 90 went from 24.2 to 34.4.

With no De Bruyne in the team, Alvarez became the main corner taker. In the Premier League (22/23) he made 3. Last season he took 82 corners.

Given those minutes and a different role centrally, Alvarez did deliver for the team throughout the season despite not making it into the starting eleven for the title run-in. In the Premier League (23/24) he was third for goal contributions (11G, 8A) for City. Across all competitions (23/24) he was third again for goal contributions (17G, 11A). Behind only Erling Haaland (38G, 6A) and Phil Foden (26G, 13A).

He did struggle in front of goal in moments during the season, particularly the final stretch of matches, and finished the Premier League season with a negative npG-xG of -2.5. In his last three seasons (River Plate and Man City) before 23/24, Alvarez over-performed his xG.

He still had the same amount of npxG per 90 in both seasons 0.38. Total shots went up from 2.82 to 3.27 per 90. Shots on target remained similar from 1.23 to 1.26 per 90. One potential reason behind his struggle in front of goal may have been that his average shot distance had moved back due to his new role. From 16 yards to 17.8 yards.

Here is his shooting stats from the Premier League visualized in this graphic by Understat. In his first season (top) the volume was less given his reduced minutes, close to goal, and a small spread. More clinical. He’s in the right position for those shots. Last season (bottom) with his new role you saw Alvarez take far more shots outside the box and spread out across the inside of the penalty box. For all those extra shots you don’t see many goals come from there either.

Before his arrival, Julian Alvarez had a stellar season for River Plate as they won the domestic league title. Providing 18 goals and 6 assists along the way. Here is how those numbers looked on our forward template.

You fast forward to the end of the 22/23 Premier League season and those same metrics put together a new visual for Alvarez. In his first season, he provided key goals for the team, kept Erling Haaland fresh, and adapted to life in Europe very well. All whilst winning the World Cup. But not the influence across the front line like he was at River Plate.

Last season his role for the most part changed as we mentioned above. That was reflected in his radar. His short passing accuracy improved and he provided more successful take-ons.

Trouble for Alvarez is when you compare that to the guy in the same team ahead of him, it’s night and day. Erling Haaland dealing with injuries and not being as clinical that season still scores 38 goals across all competitions.

But given this new role, it’s only fitting to use a different template. Here is how he looks in an attacking midfielder one.

His shot volume and goals are what make him stand out in the position compared to most. The issue again becomes comparing him to others within the same squad. Here is Kevin De Bruyne as a comparison. Bear in mind we also have Phil Foden coming off the back of an incredible season playing centrally as well.

That brings us back to the dilemma for Alvarez. He knows that those players mentioned are ahead of him in midfield. He’s not a capable winger like Gabriel Jesus was for City. There have been no significant outgoings or injuries. He’s 24 and ready to be the main striker at a club elsewhere. As useful a player as he is to the club, for him this is the right move to push his career forward.

Achievements at Manchester City

2022/23 Season

• Premier League Title

• FA Cup

• UEFA Champions League

• FIFA World Cup (Argentina)

• Finalissima (Argentina)

2023/24 Season

• Premier League Title

• FA Cup Runner-up

• UEFA Super Cup

• FIFA Club World Cup

• Copa America

Future Career

For Julian Alvarez, he now get’s to take his place as the starting number nine for a Champions League club in Europe. No longer in the shadow of Erling Haaland. With that comes the pressure of leading the line for Atletico Madrid but that’s something he should be use to dealing with as the starting striker for Argentina.

They’ve sold Morata and released Depay. Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth now lead the line. It’ll be interesting watch, do they operate as a pair in a 3-5-2 or will Simeone sets up with one striker?

Given how well Alvarez has done for Argentina alongside Messi or Lautaro Martinez I think that being part of a duo is the best way to play Alvarez. Someone to bounce off with his movement between the lines and runs in-behind the defense.

Last season in La Liga Dovbyk scored 24 goals and Alvarez’s new teammate Sorloth scored 23 goals. Neither of those totals should be out of reach in his debut season. I’d also assume that he will take up penalty duties for Atletico which will further increase his total.

For more of that discussion, check out the latest episode of The Hub on the 93:20 player with Spanish Football expert Robbie Dunne from La Pausa podcast.

Manchester City Future?

For City, Alvarez is a useful player, and finding someone capable in the absence of Haaland is tough. Similar to the value Stefan Ortega has provided as backup to Ederson.

Can you name a backup striker option that’s available at a reasonable fee, capable of delivering for City at their level, and happy to play 1,200 minutes a season?

Within the team, you have the tools for it and players experienced with a false nine system. Phil Foden is one of the best in the world at that role. Oscar Bobb is more than capable of stepping into that position as well.

The most likely outcome, City is happy with the options they have within the team. Promoting academy players Nico O'Reilly and James McAtee into the first team. Oscar Bobb, Savinho, and Doku all step up with increased minutes.

The best option for City, use this opportunity to bring in a midfield signing. Remember 2,000+ minutes from Alvarez last season came in midfield. Bruno Guimaraes is top of the list of players who can provide cover in the absence of Rodri and play alongside him, the successor to Ilkay Gundogan.

Another option is to bring in a young midfielder with very high potential. Adam Wharton would fit the bill for that.

The last option is to bring in the next Alvarez that they have already identified. Whether that's in South America or elsewhere.

One final point to be aware, In the 2025 summer window City could be losing any/all of Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Matheus Nunes, and Mateo Kovacic.

Perhaps it's best to bring in the next group of midfielders in that window instead. Ensuring they are of the highest quality. After seeing how your other players in Foden, Bobb, Rico Lewis, James McAtee, and O'Reilly progress.

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