Starting Point:

Previous Results

• Manchester City have won their five previous games since being knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid. Keeping a clean sheet in four of the five matches. Scoring four or more goals in three of them.

• Tottenham have lost four of the last five games, ending their four game losing run with a 2-1 home win against Burnley. They haven’t kept a clean sheet since their 0-4 away win against Aston Villa. Their last clean sheet at home came in an FA Cup match against Burnley, 5th January.

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City are likely to be without Nathan Ake who came off injured during the match against Fulham. Jack Grealish has returned to team training and the rest of the squad are available.

• Tottenham are set to be without Richarlison (Calf), Timo Werner (hamstring), Ben Davies (calf), Manor Solomon (knee), Ryan Sessegnon (thigh), Fraser Forster (ankle) and Destiny Udogie (thigh).

Interesting Stats:

• Much has been made of the Spurs struggle in corner kicks this season, however they have only conceded eight. That’s only two more than Arsenal (6). Manchester City have conceded the fewest (2). Nottingham Forest the most (15).

• Last season Tottenham averaged 50% possession in the Premier League, this season the average has gone up to 61.4%. Second only to Manchester City (65.6%).

• Tottenham have conceded 59 goals in the Premier League this season, that’s as many as Fulham, more than Brighton (58), more than Manchester United (55) and more than Everton (49).

Spurs vs Manchester City Preview:

PREMIER LEAGUE

Here is how City setup against Fulham once they shifted Bernardo inside for the buildup and Walker came on for Ake (injured). This is very likely the lineup against Tottenham. Gvardiol and Akanji have played the last four games in a row together, Walker playing three of those. Kovacic and Rodri double pivot locked in. Trusting De Bruyne and Foden in front of them with Erling Haaland seemingly back to full fitness and looking sharp (minus his Fulham miss).

Guardiola did make changes for the Forest game since it was three days after playing Brighton (A) in the evening then travelling to Nottingham. The match against Fulham was in London, Spurs game also in London so with the team not needing to travel back home they can just train and rest between the two matches. It’s also the last week as well, before our final Premier League game, a week off before the FA Cup Final.

To bring in a winger, Grealish or Doku, would mean that you are taking Kovacic out of the lineup. There has to be a significant tactical reason to do that since neither of them has shown themselves lately to be a guaranteed starter like Kovacic has and losing the control he provides the side. Jeremy Doku has shown through coming on late from the bench, he can make an impact on the game, pushing for a goal. Alvarez included in that as our two go to options from the bench to score.

John Stones is the most likely starting eleven change to see on Tuesday in my opinion, in place of Kyle Walker and putting Akanji at RB. This current setup does however suit Ruben Dias more as it demands of him to be aggressive on the opposition forwards up the pitch and focus heavily on defending his own box well. His two best skills.

Beyond those names mentioned I don’t see changes to the eleven and even those I think could happen are unlikely to be seen now Guardiola has essentially found and locked in his team for the run-in. Better late than never.

Tottenham Setup:

In the Premier League this season Tottenham are in the bottom five for least amount of aerial duels won (343), most aerial duels lost (375) and lowest aerial duel win percentage (47.8%). The win percentage of City (53.1%) for example even though they have won in total (313) less. With Erling Haaland back into the lineup, Kevin De Bruyne fit and starting the match this is an area City can target.

How City decide to press is another factor in this match and we could see something similar to the setup vs Brighton (A). This time including Haaland in the lineup. Tottenham have attempted the least and completed the second least amount of long passes this season. They want to buildup with short passes. The smallest average pass length for a goalkeeper. Smallest goal kick length. Lowest amount of goal kicks launched in the Premier League. Second to only Manchester City for the highest average possession. This is a different Spurs team in how they want to play football compared to the previous ones that have given City plenty of problems in London.

Here is how Tottenham setup against Burnley on the weekend and the average positions of the players. Incredibly narrow. Skipp coming in for Emerson at LB given the number of mistakes he’s made in that position. A likely candidate to sell in the summer. Skipp has been solid in his place but won’t be someone offering the kind of threat Udogie has in the final third.

For Porro that’s the opposite and one Gvardiol must be aware of it. He’s arguably been the best player for Spurs this season with his seven assists and two goals in the Premier League. Only Kulusevski has more crosses into the penalty area for Spurs this Premier League season. Behind only Son and Maddison for Spurs with 12 goal creating actions.

Quite obvious how narrow Spurs play with Kulusevski coming inside, Maddison moving across the final third and Son dropping in. Johnson is their outlet to stretch in behind, a constant threat who will become quite dangerous once his decision making catches up. Sarr and Bissouma two very physical and technical midfielders.

Kulusevski did struggle on the leftside so perhaps we see him and Johnson swap wings. Spurs built mostly down their right against Burnley to get their 2-1 win. Having Gvardiol, Akanji, Kovacic and Foden across the right side will be needed to stifle Spurs main way into the City half.

Final Predictions

The biggest hurdle for Manchester City on Tuesday night is a mental one. They got over that barrier in the FA Cup, with Nathan Ake scoring the winner. Now they need to repeat that in the Premier League. Not just scoring a goal but taking all three points.

The last time City played Spurs in the Premier League during April/May was the 2018/19 season. Usually the away fixture takes place much earlier for City but this time in their best form and it’s right when picking up the three points is a MUST.

Ones to Watch: 

• Manchester City: Mateo Kovacic had a fantastic match against Spurs in the FA Cup earlier this year which set up the rest of the team to escape pressure and progress the ball. Giving Rodri the breathing room to dictate play. We’ll need another one of those performances tomorrow night.

• Tottenham: It’s between Porro and Johnson for me down the right side of Spurs, it gave them joy against Burnley and if either Gvardiol or Akanji is not switched on then that’s their way to create chances for Son.

Predicted Lineup: Ederson, Walker, Dias, Akanji, Gvardiol, Rodri, Kovacic, De Bruyne, Foden, Bernardo, Haaland

Predicted Score: Tottenham 1 - 3 Manchester City

LAST WORD👋

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