Starting Point

Previous Results

• Manchester City have won all five of their previous Premier League games heading into the final match day.

• West Ham have won one game in their last five Premier League matches (W1 D1 L3).

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City are without Ederson due to his collision against Spurs, De Bruyne confirmed that he has no issues after being substituted and Nathan Ake was back on the bench in the last match.

• West Ham could be without Aguerd and Mavropanos who both will have fitness checks. Kalvin Phillips is sidelined through injury and not able to play against his parent club.

Interesting Stats:

• Erling Haaland has scored four goals in three career appearances against West Ham.

• Against West Ham, Manchester City have won the last eight Premier League games.

• Only Burnley (238) and Sheffield United (254) have conceded more shots on target in the Premier League than West Ham (229).

• Only the three relegated teams (Luton, Burnley & Sheffield United) have conceded more goals in the Premier League than West Ham (71).

Manchester City vs West Ham Preview

PREMIER LEAGUE

Here is how Manchester City could look on Sunday afternoon, with the announcement of Ederson being injured (eye socket) it will be Ortega in goal and he deserves this opportunity after his performances at St. James Park, Anfield and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. He’s had definitive moments in this title race and on Sunday afternoon all City fans should be confident in him doing the same.

Apart from that, I’d expect a similar lineup the the last few as this is Guardiola’s trusted system and group of players, injuries aside. It gets the best out of and put’s the faith in Foden, De Bruyne and Haaland to get the job done. Allows Rodri the option to dictate from deep or push into a box crashing role. Gvardiol the freedom to drift inside and Walker the opportunities to get in behind. De Bruyne has trained with the team yesterday with no issues after coming off against Spurs so given it’s the final PL game he’ll likely start.

Hopefully not Pep! 😅

What about any changes Guardiola could make to the lineup? I’d suggest Stones in at CB to help with breaking down a West Ham low block if it wasn’t for the fact Antonio is a real handful to deal with that suits Ruben Dias the most of any. Nathan Ake we are unsure of being fit to start so it seem’s a risk to throw him in after picking up a knock so recently against Fulham. Full backs I do not see changing, that’s the system we are using and it needs those two to work.

Jeremy Doku seems an excellent option off the bench in the second half if City are either struggling to break down West Ham or you want to keep turning up the heat on them for more goals. Alvarez has had few opportunities in a SS/AM role since the new year so will more than likely be reserved for a substitute appearance.

One player that City fans will get another look at is Lucas Paqueta, whose move fell through last summer. I’ll continue to repeat throughout this preview, expect that West Ham coaching staff and players to be determined to win. Their fans may enjoy seeing Rice fail to win the PL with Arsenal but for the players it’s different.

One thought on a different approach to this game, which would be a big departure to the run in line-up, is how Guardiola has gone after low block teams by flooding the box with attacking players. Against Crystal Palace he played Haaland, Alvarez, De Bruyne, Grealish and Bobb as a front five so maybe against West Ham there is one name in the lineup that is more attack minded than we’d expect. As brilliant as Kovacic has been of late, does he try to fit another attacker on the pitch to get through the West Ham low block early, knowing we are also at home.

Which could look something like this.👇

Just a thought and one that’s unlikely as Guardiola has found his ideal starting eleven in the recent run of games but it’s worth a mention. He could want to attack West Ham early for a goal in the first fifteen minutes.

Thoughts on West Ham

Here is how West Ham lined up against Luton Town (H) last weekend and their average positions. They could have Aguerd back on the weekend which is a significant upgrade for them over Ogbonna and the front four of Paqueta, Kudus, Bowen and Antonio is more than enough to expose the struggles City has had on the counter attack/transition. You saw against Spurs that City did well to keep those opportunities primarily out wide but a individual mistake let Son in for THAT chance. An early goal completely shifts the mood at the Etihad for the fans and players.

Areola is one of the best keepers in the league at shot stopping, that’s been evident when he’s missed games due to injury for West Ham. Despite the number of shots on target and how many goals they have conceded, it would have been much worse if he wasn’t in goal for them. A sweeper keeper he is not, having the shortest distance of defensive actions outside the penalty box and the lowest total across the season. Part of that will be the lack of space West Ham give teams to get in behind them as well.

Lucas Paqueta (4G 6A) has the second most through balls made in the Premier League this season (30). Kudus (7G 6A) has the most successful take-ons (120) ahead of Jeremy Doku (82) in second. Jarrod Bowen is their top scorer (16G 6A) and one of the highest over performers of xG in the league this season. All three of those will play Sunday and pose a dangerous threat in behind City and down their flanks in transition. Spurs is a good reminder that regardless of how the fans view the match, players can still turn up and put in a very good performance.

James Ward-Prowse a threat with his delivery. He’s provide 7 assists for West Ham in the Premier League this season since his move. The team has made the most switches (150) in the league is West Ham, the leaders individually for them are Aguerd (29), who could be out through injury, and Zouma (27). This season City have only conceded two goals from set plays this season so it will take top quality, with he’s got, to score and in the away fixture you saw his willingness to get into the box as well.

The key for West Ham is to score first and keep City from doing so in the first half. That’ll amplify the nerves from the players and fans at the Etihad. Make them doubt themselves and give them no space to work through in the final third. Easier said than done and if City get an early goal then it’s hard not to see a comfortable victory for them after that.

Final Predictions

The focus is on getting an early goal, to settle the nerves and move onto a comfortable victory. Avoid giving the fans a stressful afternoon like against Aston Villa a couple years back!

Ones to Watch: 

Manchester City: For me their can only be one player and that’s Phil Foden who has be the standout for City this season and there is no better way to cement that by delivering the title in the final game of the season.

West Ham: There are plenty of players for West Ham that will want to impress for a move or for the new manager coming in. Mohammed Kudus is quick and powerful running at defenses and if there is anyone to cause City problems it’ll be him in transition.

Predicted Lineup: Ortega, Walker, Dias, Akanji, Gvardiol, Rodri, Kovacic, De Bruyne, Foden, Bernardo, Haaland

Predicted Score: Manchester City 3-1 West Ham

Final Note on what’s coming up next, now the season is heading towards the finishing line.

• The System City Have Developed This Season.

• The Evolution of Phil Foden This Season.

• The Evolution of Josko Gvardiol This Season.

• How Erling Haaland Provides More than Goals to Manchester City.

• 23/24 Season Review

• 24/25 Transfer Series

• And Plenty More!

If there is anything you want to see discussed in more detail from this season or heading into the next one, please comment below or send an email back.

LAST WORD👋

How am I doing?

I’d love to hear more from readers and I’m always looking for feedback. How am I doing with Sky Blue Times? Is there anything you’d like to see more or less of? Which aspects of the newsletter and our content do you enjoy the most?

Hit the reply and say hello - I’d love to hear from you!

Thank you,

Bailey