Here we are again, heading back to the Santiago Bernabéu in search of a result that set’s City up well for the home leg at the Etihad. There should be no more surprises for either team at either ground. Manchester City will look for control whilst Real Madrid will lean into chaos. The structure of a Guardiola system vs the principles of Ancelotti. Playing each other for the third straight season in the Champions League knockout stages set’s up quite the match.

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Starting Point

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City are set to be without Josko Gvardiol, Kyle Walker and Nathan Ake who all missed out on the open training session.

• Real Madrid are set to be without Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba. Dani Ceballos is still in individual training. Eder Militao came on for Real Madrid in the previous game but is unlikely to start.

Interesting Stats:

• Real Madrid have only lost one game in La Liga this season, to Athletico Madrid 3-1. One draw in the Champions League against RB Leipzig. One loss to Athletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey RO16 4-2 (a.e.t.)

• This is the third straight season that Manchester City and Real Madrid have faced one another in the knockout stages of the Champions League. Real Madrid winning the tie in the 2021/22 season and City in the 22/23 season. Both went on to win the competition.

• Vinicius Junior has been directly involved in more goals than any other player in the Champions League (14 goals, 13 assists) since the start of the 2021/22 season.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City Preview

Champions League

Before we get into my thoughts on the game we will start with La Liga Systems on X, a Real Madrid fan that covers the Spanish top league, who has given his thoughts on the Champions League tie. The tactics, team selection, improvement of Real Madrid at counter pressing and what they must embrace to win the game. 👇

General Thoughts:

• Here is how I see Manchester City lining up for the game against Real Madrid, the injuries to defenders means Guardiola is very limited in his selection at the back. Unless we see Kyle Walker suddenly rushed back for the game. Ortega in top form and Ederson is a risk starting since he would be coming into the game cold off injury.

• No Gundogan this time around but Phil Foden is in the midfield along with Rico Lewis. Both link up incredibly well in tight spaces and smart enough to chose their moments. This game will involve a lot of tweaks and adjustments for both teams, these two give the team plenty of options out/in of possession to shift around the pitch.

• In the 1st leg City didn’t utilize Haaland as well as they could have in the buildup and by playing long to him. He’s shown improvements throughout this season. An option into feet and could be used to play long balls to with the Real Madrid full backs pushing high, break into that space with De Bruyne/Foden running.

• Different players I could see being involved from the start would be Mateo Kovacic and Jeremy Doku. The former if Guardiola expects to be pressed aggressively and doesn’t want to take any risk going forward but instead play conservative. The latter to exploit the space provide out wide against Real Madrid. We saw that last season and it’ll be there again this time around.

• One note on the bench this time around, Mateo Kovacic is an excellent option for us to come on in the second half and tighten up after gaining a lead. That wouldn’t surprise me at all. Other side to that is if we are down by a goal chasing an equalizer then Doku could be called upon. Both may miss out on a start but can still play their part. Bobb and Alvarez are other considerations off the bench.

• Rodri is a different player this time around with his involvement in the final third, a significant threat shooting outside the box and his line breaking passes. Perhaps we see a deeper De Bruyne and Rodri moved more central as the hub of the team.

• One thing we might see from City in possession is how Kevin De Bruyne dropped deeper against Crystal Palace. Getting him free against Real Madrid will be very tough as we saw in the 1st leg last season.

Opposition Setup:

• Players on one yellow card away from suspension in the second leg for Real Madrid are Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni. That’s potentially huge for Manchester City, should be considered and it would surprise me if none of them pick a card up.

• Real Madrid have their full backs providing the width this time around, last season it was the wingers with Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior. That brings it’s benefits to get more players running in behind but also has it’s downside if City can catch out Carvajal pushing high. Tactics Journal covered this point here.

• With Jude Bellingham, Real Madrid have a few options against Manchester City to attack. As a runner into the box, linking up with Vinicius and Rodrygo after Kroos fires a ball in behind. Dropping deep to support Kroos whose being pressed, turn and run with the ball. To come over to flank, combine with his team mates whilst the other flank is left open for a switch. Likely that we see a bit of everything as both teams continue to make tweaks and shut each other down.

• Being aggressive pressing Manchester City is another difference in this 1st leg compared to last season. No Benzema to sit on Dias/Stones and possibly no box midfield to try close down. Madrid can use Jude, Vinicius and Rodrygo in a variety of different ways to close down a likely back three from City in possession.

• Final note on Lunin who has been the standout ‘back up’ keeper in the world this season. Excellent in his shot stopping and brave playing out from the back. Thibaut Courtois made crucial saves in the 1st leg last season, he’s missing this match but Lunin is more than capable of providing those again.

Ones to Watch: 

• Manchester City: Kevin De Bruyne in the first leg last season struggled to get free consistent enough to make City flourish in attack. When he did get his moment he made it count. Phil Foden drifting could help him a lot. This time around both him and the team will need to do better to get him on the ball.

• Real Madrid: Toni Kroos for me is key to getting the very best out of Real Madrid, controlling their progression up the pitch and unlocking their attacking threat. Last season City struggled to limit his influence and he continued to get open in space.

We should be in for another match like last season, both sides making tweaks throughout the game to counter one another. Expose an opening and then close it off. This time however it feels like one team has to take their chances, Real Madrid know the difficulty of getting a win at the Etihad and that’s made harder by the players who could be suspended. Forcing their hand.

Players that won’t be able to be aggressive in the first leg if they want to play the second. There is more risk involved this time around for Real Madrid and I think Manchester City will take their opportunity when they see that space opening up. The downfall for City will be if they let the game turn into chaos, it must remain controlled. They must take care of the ball, look after it and not misplace a pass.

Predicted Lineup: Ortega, Akanji, Stones, Dias, Lewis, Rodri, KDB, Bernardo, Grealish, Foden, Haaland

Predicted Score: Real Madrid 1 - 2 Manchester City

If you haven’t done so already, go check out La Liga Systems via X who covers everything going on in the Spanish top flight along with other football leagues. 👇

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