Manchester City 1-0 Southampton Review

Premier League GW9

MOTM: Savinho

This season so far, Savinho leads the Manchester City team for Key Passes (24), Passes into the Penalty Area (36), xA (3.9), xAG (3.7), Shot-Creating Actions (51), Goal-Creating Actions (8), Tackles Won in Final Third (6), Touches in the Final Third (447), Successful Take-ons (25), Carries into Penalty Area (42), and Progressive Passes Received (127).

All of his underlying numbers point toward his G+A contributions exploding at some point this season. He can be the creative force on the wings and be useful to progress the ball or penetrate the box. Off the ball, he’s aggressive and intelligent in pressing or counter-pressing. Perhaps I’m jumping ahead of myself here but by January I think he’s our nailed-down starter on the RW.

Notable Stats:

• Savinho (17) had the most touches in the opposition box during Premier League GW9, Josko Gvardiol (59) had the most passes in the final third, and Phil Foden (5) created the most chances.

• Matheus Nunes has now provided five goal involvements in his last four starts for Manchester City.

• Against Southampton, Savinho had completed 6 dribbles, 5 key passes, created 2 big chances, 10 shot-creating actions, 13 progressive carries, 7 passes into the penalty area, and 10 carries into the penalty area. No other player had more.

Game Stats:

Manchester City 1-0 Southampton

• xG: 3.26 - 0.33

• xThreat: 2.84 - 0.76

• Possession: 57.5% - 42.5%

• Field Tilt: 89.0% - 11.0%

• Penalty Box Shots: 13 - 5

• Deep Entries: 29 - 9

• PPDA: 9.8 - 14.8

• High Turnovers: 5 - 1

• 10+ Pass Sequences: 30 - 17

Here are the fourteen matches played in terms of xG and xGA, with the biggest spike seen around the Fulham match in the Premier League. Compared to last season, the team has slightly improved for most of the underlying numbers.

After fourteen matches, the top ten for minutes played this season is quite surprising for Manchester City. Only Erling Haaland (1,132) has played more minutes than Rico Lewis (1,116). Josko Gvardiol and Akanji have also played over 1,000 minutes. Savinho (753) has played the most minutes of any City winger this season.

Another back five for Manchester City to break, but this was a different approach in parts from what they’ve been used to. Southampton wanted to play out from the back, with Ramsdale stepping up between the CBs as THB and Bednarek split. Cameron Archer occupied Dias and looked to support in transition if they made it through Manchester City's press. Manning pushing up high on their left side.

In the first half, the combination of Bernardo Silva and Matheus Nunes on the left side was causing issues, one of them underlapping whilst the other picked them out to eventually cross. Covered each other very well OOP when pressing or sat deeper in a block. Recovering the ball several times down the LHS. Three CBs of Southampton were far too focused on Haaland to keep a defensive line, THB quite narrow, and Dibling not knowing who to track.

1-0 Erling Haaland (5') 

Excellent goal from Manchester City to open the scoring and eventually win the match. A pattern down the LHS with Bernardo/Nunes that we saw against Sparta Praha. Silva pulls out to the flank as Nunes comes inside, making the underlapping run behind the full-back. Putting Nunes through to make a cross. Dinked over to Erling Haaland just outside the 6-yard box. Another incredibly difficult finish to pull off. Although it's only been a couple of matches, what Nunes has done well and different from others that have played on the left this season is make runs behind the back line. On the outside and coming inside as he did for the goal.

Manchester City's pressing the opposition is a work in progress this season with De Bruyne and Rodri injured. They caused high turnovers from Southampton five times (Bernardo, Savinho, Kovacic) and made Ramsdale clear after being forced back to his 6-yard box a few times. Patience in the final third, not too aggressive that you give Southampton the opening they are looking for. Rico Lewis was excellent at tracking Fernandes's movement for the most part. Another day it’s 3-0 at half-time because Manchester City is ruthless with their turnovers, Savinho for example had two just outside the box and he cuts inside towards traffic rather than heading towards the open space on his right.

Using a 4-1-4-1 to prevent central access, have Haaland direct the opposition to one side towards the wingers where an eight can jump out to support, with the six behind them. Reduce the space each midfielder is required to cover. Kovacic was much better in this regard. Leaving Dias/Akanji/Gvardiol as the three at the back if the opposition goes long. Bernardo and Savinho in particular are excellent at reading the opposition to make interceptions high up the pitch. The best way I've seen so far to get through City when they press is to pull them over to one side intentionally, move back centrally, and break through the middle before the midfield trio can reset. That's how Southampton found Lallana a couple of times directly from Ramsdale but Dias/Kovacic dealt with those.

It's rare to see Manchester City sat deep in a block but when you do this season it's been as a 4-1-4-1 with the two eights able to jump out to press the ball. Against Fulham Foden/Gundogan didn't apply enough pressure but improved against Southampton. Bernardo or Foden would also move forward into a 4-4-2 when they could which pushed the opposition further back, eventually to the keeper.

We continued to see Manchester City try to draw out the opposition press where they can, this weekend against Southampton—another example of Bernardo and Nunes combining on the LHS. Ederson would use Gvardiol frequently, but at the right moments would bypass him into Bernardo Silva, who can turn and drive forward, laying it off to Nunes, and continuing his run into the box to get the pass back.

In the second half, Phil Foden came deeper, to have the play in front of him and get on the ball. We saw that against Sparta Praha midweek, with Stones then making runs ahead of him into the box. Now that Rodri is out injured as well as De Bruyne, Foden must do this during the game to help the team shift the ball, add variety, and give him opportunities to create.

Another point on Phil Foden, since he’s returned more consistently to the starting lineup this season it’s been quite noticeable his delivery from set-pieces as well as crosses from open play. Hitting the 6-yard box with pace, he should continue to be the first choice on the right-side corner. Prefer that Savinho be on the edge of the box for what he can offer in transition, helping to recover the ball, and being in a position to float crosses back into the box.

Especially in the second half, there were plenty of good-quality chances for Manchester City to rack up a score against Southampton and for Erling Haaland to score at least a hat trick. On another day, that happens, and there is no doubt about the performance level, but even as incredible as he is, there will be chances missed and games like this. It reminds me of the match against Brentford (H) last season for exactly that reason.

Mention for Matheus Nunes whose now shown consistent performances back-to-back and could have easily been MOTM. Aggressively tracking back to win the ball, was willing to make frequent runs in behind, and kept providing good quality crosses into the box.

These are the performances from Josko Gvardiol that go under the radar but in reality, are just as impressive as when he wins us the game scoring outside the box. Incredibly reliable defensively and he’s become a key part of the team progressing the ball into the final third this season. Positive performance from Mateo Kovacic out of possession as a number six, it’s surprised me how well he’s managing to adapt despite not having the best skillset for the role. Bernardo Silva probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves this season but he’s been wonderful.

Moving Forward

Looking ahead after the result at the weekend, Manchester City now enter a run of four away matches across three competitions. The League Cup match against Spurs will no doubt consist of a heavily rotated team, no risks taken, and any result welcomed. Bournemouth in the Premier League will be a tough match, only won 0-1 last season and they applied plenty of pressure towards the end of the match to try to equalize. Trip away to take on Sporting CP in the Champions League, the team Hugo Viana currently works for, for three points that will be needed and against a promising young manager in Amorim. Finishing with Brighton before the International break, against another promising young manager who is capable of causing the team issues. All whilst missing several players with injuries. Matheus Nunes is now our second-highest contributor for G+A, with plenty of others chipping in with goals and assists.

Part of this is a joke with Nunes having his hands in the air but the other part of it is true. Not many of our current players have the instinct or quality to provide long passes throughout the match. De Bruyne and Rodri provide that. It’s not natural for Kovaic, his instinct is to carry. Foden can once he comes deeper, with the play in front of him rather than being between the lines. Nunes, Savinho, Doku, and Grealish are all wingers with great first touch just waiting for those passes and always in the right position to receive them. Especially against teams that will sit deep, you want to shift the ball around and make them move.

I thought this tweet was worth a mention, towards the end of last season it became very common for teams to use this approach against Manchester City. 4-2-4 to prevent central ball progression. We saw Chelsea (FA Cup), Real Madrid (CL), and Manchester United (FA Cup) have success with it, as well as others. By the community shield, using the two eights pulling out wide, Rico Lewis is inverting and re-introducing wingers. Guardiola has solved it. As great as the box midfield was in the treble-winning season, it’s been seen, analyzed, and beaten. Guardiola generally moves on before it happens and it’s why each season he continues to evolve the team.

Looking back to remind ourselves about how much can change with a couple of good results, this is the Premier League table 20/21 after nine matches. Spoiler, Manchester City won by 12 points and didn’t reach the top spot until game week twenty.

Next up for Manchester City is the League Cup match against Spurs on Wednesday 30th October, 20:15 GMT.

Rodri Wins Ballon d’Or

We couldn’t finish up the newsletter without mentioning this, a huge bit of news that will no doubt impact how the entire club is viewed moving forward let alone the incredible individual achievement for Rodri. For the next superstar signings the club makes, the young kid from Manchester working his way through the academy or the Brazilian kid that’s joined the City Football Group. They’ll all know that you can win the Ballon d’Or at Manchester City now.

On an individual level, Rodri is rewarded for his consistent, elite, and dominant performances in the club's last four seasons. Rodri only lost one of his last 85 games for club and country. He was the foundation on which every success of the club was built in these last four seasons. The hub for the team, having the most touches in Europe’s Top Five Leagues last season.