Manchester City 1-1 Everton Review

Premier League GW18

For Manchester City, this was the beginning of a favorable run of fixtures that they need to use well. To gain momentum, confidence, and most importantly, points. Well, they did get a point, and although it was more valuable to Everton, there were some positives to take forward from the performance. Relative to what we’ve seen during the losing run. Until new players arrive, injured players return, and current starters can be rested, there will be no huge improvements in performance.

Notable Stats:

• Manchester City's matchday squad is the first for a Premier League game to not feature at least one of Kyle Walker, John Stones, Ederson, or Jack Grealish since May 13, 2017, a 2-1 win over Leicester.

• Collectively, the two Manchester clubs have lost nine matches in all competitions in December (United 5, City 4), the most in a single month since April 1971 (also 9).

• Manchester City have dropped 12 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, already more than they did in the entirety of last season (10).

Game Stats:

Manchester City 1-1 Everton

• xG: 2.34 - 0.74

• xThreat: 2.58 - 0.88

• Possession: 66.0% - 34.0%

• Field Tilt: 80.3% - 19.7%

• Penalty Box Shots: 14 - 4

Whilst the team is struggling at this moment, along with Foden this season, we are seeing a shift from him towards being a more creative player even if the assists are not coming just yet. xA per 90 up from last season 0.22 to 0.38, xAG from 0.26 to 0.34, passes into the penalty area from 1.80 to 2.40, long passes completed from 2.15 to 3.90, and crosses 2.81 to 4.90. Other than the penalty, 4/5 best chances Manchester City had against Everton were created by Foden.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Here is how the two teams lined up for the match, with Manchester City dropping Gundogan and playing both wingers in Savinho/Doku. After the match started it became clear were operating more inside as the full-backs pushed up wide. Everton lined up as expected, defending in a 4-4-2 which Guardiola looked try exploit by using his full-backs wide, pulling the opposition full-backs out to open up the space between them and the central defenders. The same space we see exploited for the opening goal.

Another good delivery from Foden into the box sets up an excellent chance for Gvardiol (3’) with his header just wide of the post, Pickford rooted to the spot.

Bernardo Silva 1-0 14' 

Away from the deflection that helped Manchester City score the opening goal, it had the kind of movement that had been missing from the team in the last run of games as they looked lost of confidence or too tired to make those runs. Take the risks. Excellent run through the half-space into the box from Bernardo Silva. Jeremy Doku carrying the ball inside, not having to beat the full-back 1v1 but just getting enough space to play a well-timed pass into the box. Something he gets criticised for, but it's quite clearly a skill he has. I did want to highlight the run of Savinho to the back post, it's encouraging to see him make those, and I'm sure the goals will eventually come because of it.

Guardiola moved Rico Lewis into the midfield after the opening goal, I’d assume to give more control after a quick start from Manchester City. Initially, he was moving outside similar to Gvardiol on the left as Savinho moved inside. Now they swapped roles and Rico was careful to push up too high.

City plays out through pressure from Everton, eventually finding Gvardiol who fires the ball inside to Foden. He puts Haaland through into the box but a heavy touch takes him too wide for a shot.

Nathan Ake goes long to Foden running in behind, and the header away from Branthwaite lands for Haaland, he lays it off for Foden who puts the ball into the box for Bernardo Silva (33’) to shoot here but he misses wide.

Iliman Ndiaye 1-1 36' 

It's hard to take much away from the excellent finish by Ndiaye on the outside of his boot, into the top corner. Even the deflection off Akanji's failed attempt to win the ball lands perfectly for him Rico Lewis cannot do much. But if we move back further, it's part of the same number of issues for Manchester City during the losing run they've been on since the start of November. Players are confused about which opposition player to press and leave spare men. Letting those free players have all of the time needed to pick out crosses into the box.

If we go back further, it's not tracking the run of the opposition full-back, and leaving them free to play that long pass in behind to space. When the cross is cleared by Nathan Ake, instead of being decisive with the loose ball, Doku tries to take a touch and loses it.

In the second half, Haaland missed a penalty (53’) after Savinho was brought down just inside the box by Coleman. Pickford guessing right.

The follow-up was put away by Haaland but he was offside, perhaps if he left it Foden who was onside would have scored.

De Bruyne came on for Jeremy Doku (75’) towards the end of the second half, Guardiola said afterward that perhaps he could have come on sooner but had been dealing with illness prior, hence his absence recently from the starting lineup. Had one brilliant opportunity to create the winning goal at the back post for Bernardo Silva but unexpectedly made the wrong pass. Cleared by Everton

Simpson-Pusey came on for Nathan Ake (85’) before the end of the match, Guardiola said afterward that Ake would let them know when he couldn’t continue so it remains to be seen if he will be fit to face Leicester City. He made plenty of important tackles to prevent Everton counterattackers or approaches from going long and will be missed if unavailable. Gundogan came on for Kovacic (85’) at the same time.

I cannot finish without mentioning this pass from Simpson-Pusey into Haaland, the kind of passes we miss from our defenders right now and without Rodri in the team.

Everton did have at the end of injury time a counterattack that led to a 4v2 starting with no good attempt to win the loose ball, Savinho not managing to make the tactical foul, and how slow players were to track back. Gvardiol, Lewis, and De Bruyne are all in the final third, all three manage to eventually get back into the box to support Akanji/Simpson-Pusey but you cannot have no midfielder making it back either.

I went through the seven shots Savinho had in the match against Everton, which is encouraging to see from our wingers, just knowing they are willing to take more shots beyond only Haaland being a threat to score. But if you look past his underlying number this season, which has been alongside the best players in the league, he’s just one right decision away from getting goal contributions.

Two (43’, 49’) are from corners, taken the first time, and both on target. One was blocked by a player and the other was saved by Pickford. Others from taking shots when it’s too easy for a defender to block the shot (66’, 88’). But his undoing is not passing to teammates who are in better positions. It’s trying to come inside for a shot instead of passing to Bernardo in this sequence. 👇

Or not passing to Foden here in this sequence. 👇

The underlying numbers for Savinho are up there with some of the best players in the Premier League. Plenty of promise to be excited about.

• 4th for xA per 90 (0.36)

• 2nd for SCA per 90 (6.69)

• 2nd most carries into the penalty area (44)

• 5th most progressive carries (79)

• 6th most successful take-ons (35)

Those are the decisions he needs to get right to become a decisive player in the final third. For any new players joining Manchester City, they need time to adapt, let alone a South American player who doesn't speak English. Savinho needs the time this season to do that, but the shots highlighted above should be an example of how fine the margins are in the final third. Once his decision-making in the box matches his underlying numbers, his goal contributions will take off.

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Moving Forward

As covered above going through the match, there were plenty of chances for Manchester City to score, and a clear plan to exploit space Everton left as the back line was stretched. But it is quite clear that unless the team takes their chances early on, it feels inevitable that in the second half, they will tire, given how many players have been carrying injuries, or just ran into the ground. The opposition got chances to score, and in the end, they were fortunate not to concede an injury-time goal. Against Leicester City, for as poor as they’ve been this season, Manchester City need to take their chances early on.

The transfer window opens on Wednesday and Guardiola has made it quite clear they intend to buy players where possible, to meet the long-term needs of the team to rebuild. Just from an injury and minutes perspective, they need more players to arrive and handle the demands of games. Let alone any gaps in the squad for positions or lack of quality. By the time they play West Ham next weekend, we should have a good idea of what’s possible in the transfer window.

Leicester City vs Manchester City Preview

Premier League GW19

There are a few ways to take the Everton result, but the performance was in my opinion a step forward in the right direction. Even if it was a small one. But as has been normal throughout this run, any positive performance is followed by a negative one. Against Leicester City, they cannot afford to waste any more points and need to build momentum.

Previous Results:

• Manchester City in their last three Premier League matches have lost to Manchester United (1-2), lost to Aston Villa (2-1), and drew against Everton (1-1). They are currently sitting 7th in the table with 28 points.

• Leicester City have lost their last three Premier League matches against Newcastle (4-0), Wolves (0-3), and Liverpool (3-1). They are currently sitting 18th in the table with 14 points.

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City are without Rodri (knee), Oscar Bobb, Ruben Dias, and John Stones. Matheus Nunes, Ederson, Kyle Walker, and Jack Grealish face late fitness tests.

• Leicester City is without Issahaku Fatawu, Jordan Ayew, Wilfred Ndidi, Mads Hermansen, and Ricardo Pereira. Wout Faes and Kasey McAteer face late fitness tests. Jamie Vardy could also be fit to play on Sunday.

Interesting Leicester City Stats:

• Jamie Vardy (6) has scored the most Premier League goals for Leicester City this season, whilst Wilfred Ndidi (4) has provided the most assists.

• Abdul Fatawu who picked up an ACL injury on the November International break still leads Leicester City for most carries into the penalty area (15), carries into the final third (24), and successful take-ons (29).

• No team in the Premier League has conceded more goals this season than Leicester City (40). However, Leicester (22) have scored more goals than Manchester United (20) this season.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Here is how Leicester City lined up against Liverpool in the fixture midweek, eventually losing 3-1. Immediately what jumps out is how depleted they are with their best players. Jamie Vardy could be involved in the weekend but was left out in the hope he’ll be fit to face Manchester City, and that makes a lot of sense given where they can be exposed in transition. The lack of real bite in midfield with Ndidi injured whose also been involved further forward, leading the team for assists (4). No more Fatawu for the rest of the season, the other consistent option is to find out wide and attack the opposition full-backs. Buonanotte (on loan from Brighton) was in good form to start the season, with three goals and two assists in his first eight PL matches. Now he’s scored once in the last eight. Hermansen, a keep that I think should be on plenty of top clubs radars, picked up a groin injury and won’t be available. Another key piece for Leicester missing despite Stolarczyk having a good performance against Liverpool.

Ruud Van Nistelrooy had a short spell in management before taking over at Leicester City, at PSV he opted for a 4-2-3-1 with the full-back tucking inside to form a 3-2-4-1 but quickly had to adjust when Cody Gakpo and Madueke were sold. Then he started using Xavi Simons as a false winger, as the full-back van Aanholt pushed on to provide width. He’ll still want the same shape in the final third but is willing to adjust the rotations to get there. One thing is quite clear from the names mentioned, he had some top-quality young players to work with.

Leicester is quite simply put not a good team this season and is on track for relegation even if there better players return, but Manchester City is also in its worst moment. Across the last six matches picking up only five points.

As mentioned in the review above, I think the performance against Everton had some improvements relative to what we’ve come to expect across the last few matches. Despite the result not being what they wanted the team had the chance to wrap up the match in the first half and the space they’ll get to attack will still be there against Leicester City.

This is the run of games now where they must pick up points. Leicester City, West Ham, Brentford, and Ipswich Town. All should be three points even with the team in a bad moment. After that, it gets tricky as they face Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Spurs in a row. I wouldn’t rule out Leicester scoring, especially if Jamie Vardy starts the match but I’d still expect Manchester City to come out of the match with a win. Although not feeling afterward confident we’ll win the next one!

Predicted Lineup:

Predicted Score: Leicester City 1-3 Manchester City