Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United Review

Premier League GW16

The team came so close to picking up three points, momentum, and confidence in the Manchester derby only to have their mistakes, poor pressure off the ball, and fear of making runs in behind come back to haunt them in the end. Whilst this is a team in need of a rebuild, suffering without key players to injuries, it is also one that is fearful of taking risks in the final third. Looking devoid of confidence on the ball and responsibility off of it. How do you start to solve those problems?

Notable Stats:

• Man City's average age today is the oldest starting XI for either side in a Manchester Derby in the Premier League since April 2017 (Man City, 29y 112d).

• Manchester City was leading until the 88th minute against Manchester United but ended up losing 2-1 – the latest into a game that a reigning champion has led in the Premier League and lost.

• Amad Diallo is the second-youngest player to score a 90th-minute winner against the reigning Premier League champions, after Neil Mellor versus Arsenal in 2004 (22y 24d).

• Bruno Fernandes has scored 21 of his 25 penalties for Manchester United in the Premier League, now the outright most by any player for the club in the competition (overtaking Wayne Rooney – 20/28).

Game Stats:

Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United

• xG: 0.9 - 1.88

• xThreat: 1.06 - 1.14

• Possession: 51.7% - 48.3%

• Field Tilt: 63.9% - 36.1%

• Penalty Box Shots: 5 - 7

• Deep Entries: 9 - 11

• PPDA: 10.7 - 8.7

• High Turnovers: 4 - 3

That’s the second lowest xG Manchester City has created in a single match this season, first place was against Liverpool (A). Their lowest pass completion (84.2%), and least amount of deep entries (9) for a single match.

Erling Haaland has now played 10 consecutive full 90s, the next nearest player in the squad is Bernardo Silva who has played 7. It’s no surprise that Haaland also leads the team for most minutes played (2,032), Josko Gvardiol second (1,906), Rico Lewis third (1,835), and Bernardo Silva fourth (1,742). All four players are the first players you would say need a rest.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Below is how both of the teams set up for the match, Mainoo came on for Mount after he was injured (14’) so Fernandes moved into the ten role, Mainoo alongside Ugarte. Manchester United as expected under Ruben Amorim in their 3-4-3 shape. For Manchester City in possession, we saw something different when Gvardiol tucked in, Walker and Dias forming a back two. Phil Foden was free to operate as a number ten, Bernardo Silva on the right, De Bruyne in the right half-space, and Nunes then had a lot of freedom on the left. Although forced to use Nunes due to injuries, Guardiola did improvise for the first half and although stable from both teams, Manchester City just edged.

There was some issue with the press for Manchester City in the first ten minutes, which you can find covered in more detail in this thread by Jon Mackenzie. That United probably should have exploited better. Since Matheus Nunes was pushing up to press Mazraoui, he had a lot of ground to cover and it left 1v1 matchups at the back, Fernandes who could beat Gundogan running into the box, and Dalot 1v1 to beat Walker to the back-post. Not a risk worth taking for Guardiola.

So instead of Nunes pushing up to press, Foden would jump out for central spaces to cover Mazraoui, and Doku would be more conservative tucking back inside onto Mainoo. Better coverage of the channel with a +1, but throughout the first half there were instances of it not being perfect with their distances. Foden started too close to the middle, and Doku was slow to then cover inside which meant the pass from Mazraoui into Mainoo was on and United could attack.

So in the second half, Guardiola tightened it up. Jeremy Doku needed to be more passive and central, and Foden started wider.

Now, I mentioned that there was little between the two teams and a big part of that was how unwilling Manchester City players were at attacking space between and behind the opposition backline. Which I can understand will be tied to the form of the team, desperate for a win, not wanting to lose the ball and concede a counterattack. But, eventually that stifles your attacking output to the point of you struggling to create a chance let alone score. 0.9xG is the second least amount created in a single match by Manchester City this season, the least created was against Liverpool (0.76xG) which is another team you’d expect them to fear in transition. Another aspect of missing Rodri, not having the confidence he provides you to focus on creating and scoring.  

The passing map only highlights further the approach to build and attack down the LHS from Manchester City despite how much they struggled to do that. Meanwhile Manchester United utilized their RHS to get through to Diallo as an outlet.

J. Gvardiol 36' 1-0 

Manchester City has the highest proportion of their corners short in the Premier League this season, generally does not pack the 6-yard box (1.57 players), and uses inswingers 76% of the time. We saw all of those come together in this goal, along with a fortunate small deflection off Diallo. De Bruyne plays it short to Gundogan, whose deflected cross arrives for the run of Josko Gvardiol. Left alone in the box and delivers a brilliant header into the corner.

Kovacic (68’) came on for De Bruyne which the team leading, which made sense to help sure up the team, give him minutes, and not push De Bruyne all the way to ninety. Not that they were having much joy attacking down the RHS anyway. Grealish (77’) came on for Doku which like the Kovacic sub made sense, to ideally help keep the ball high up the pitch when needed, continue to press well, and prevent the outlet of Diallo from being accessed.

Manchester United made a triple change (78’) bringing on Zirkzee (Hojlund), Antony (Mazraoui), and Yoro (de Ligt).

B. Fernandes 88’ (PEN) 1-1

Poor back passes from Manchester City players have happened a few times this season now, the mistake by Nunes although frustrating was much worse because of the second mistake when coming back to stop the shot, giving away the penalty. Panicked when he didn't need to, the team had three already back inside the box. Not ideal that he found himself on the wrong side, or that before that mistake he had a positive performance as a left-back for the first match. The worst part of it all was knowing how the team had not handled adversity well during this run, a goal down is just the start of another conceded.

Highlighted well by Thierry Henry, if you take it back further you see the great position Manchester City is in, and the poor decision by Grealish invites the pressure and eventually forces the team back. The exact type of situations Guardiola would have brought him on to handle, he makes the wrong decision.

A. Diallo 90' 1-2 

Foden/Haaland are confused as to who is pressing Martinez. He now has the time to pick out the run of Diallo in behind the City back line that Nunes did not close off. Gvardiol doesn't see him until too late. Ederson is out in no man's land, neither close enough to collect the ball or to make a good save. Both Nunes and Gvardiol unable to stop it on the line.

If you take it back to the very beginning, there is no pressure on the ball as Foden and Haaland are confused as to who should be doing that. Martinez has the time to pick out a pass. Diallo who runs across Nunes does not have his run blocked off, Gvardiol/Dias both track the two players in front of them and only see him too late.

In the case of Jeremy Doku as a key player for Manchester City, there are a few things that stood out for me in his performance out of possession that need to improve which I discussed in the thread linked below. Of course, it makes a huge difference not having a midfield capable of working the ball to him in the right moments, with the space to attack. But there is still plenty he can do.

Looking back, this was a match with so few chances for either team until some individual mistakes gave Manchester United space to attack. With City players unwilling to attack space, make the runs, and take risks in the final third it’s no surprise how little was created.

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Moving Forward

Just like the Crystal Palace match, the team was so close to getting three points and beginning to build back their confidence as well as momentum. I really don’t think they are far off the kind of form that secures the top four, but the level of consistency won’t come when individual mistakes continue every single match. Until your injured players return and the January transfer window opens, it’s hard to see the team shaking off this form.

That being said, to have only won once in 11 matches, still be able to qualify for the Champions League knockouts and be 5th in the Premier League shows there is plenty left to play for. As well as the state of the PL this season. The match against Aston Villa is huge for making the top four, taking on a direct rival for the places, and they must have other players step up with goals to have a chance of doing it.

The struggle of the team down the RHS during that match partly is due to not wanting to attack down that side and also that they struggled to get the ball into De Bruyne with Ugarte tight to him and Martinez stepping out aggressively. The lack of control and physicality in midfield has called for Bernardo to be used more on the right wing, along with his pressing capacity, but the clear plan was to have Oscar Bobb and Savinho fighting for a spot on that side. It’s Oscar Bobb I expect to have a big impact in changing that trend when he returns from injury.

There are several problems that the team cannot resolve until the transfer window, and players can be moved on. I covered much of those, along with the mistakes made leading up to the season in more detail with the post linked below. 👇

Next up for Manchester City is Aston Villa (A) on Saturday 21st December. Lunchtime kick-off that sees 5th vs 7th and an important one for either team to keep up with the top four race.

If you haven’t already checked it out, linked below is the deep dive on new winger options for Manchester City in the summer.