Manchester City 2-1 Aston Villa Review

Premier League GW34

Whether you thought this was a must-win or must-not-lose, everyone can agree how much of a boost a late winner gives the team, and drains the opposition. For Manchester City to beat Aston Villa in incredible form now moves the debate around making the Champions League to whether they can make third place.

We’re used to seeing a team and tactical setup put together for the title run-in. This isn’t that, but it’s doing the job. The pairing of Dias-Gvardiol, Nico O’Reilly now starting the last five matches at left-back, an approach without wingers, and the use of Jeremy Doku off the bench. It’s not perfect, but the team is stable now, and it’s not fragile.

MOTM: JOSKO GVARDIOL

Notable Stats:

• Manchester City scored their latest match-winning Premier League goal at the Etihad Stadium (93:21) since November 2022 against Fulham (94:34). It was the latest winner Aston Villa conceded at home and away in the competition since October 2021 vs Wolves (94:05).

• Only against Leicester (8) does Marcus Rashford have more Premier League goals than he does v Man City (6), four of which have been at the Etihad. Indeed, only Wayne Rooney (6) and Jamie Vardy (5) have more away goals at the Etihad in the competition than Rashford.

• Manchester City's last 15 Premier League home games against Aston Villa: WWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

Game Stats:

Manchester City 2-1 Aston Villa

• xG: 1.33 - 1.76

• xThreat: 2.2 - 0.8

• Possession: 62.0% - 38.0%

• Field Tilt: 76.0% - 24.0%

• Penalty Box Shots: 10 - 5

• Deep Entries: 8 - 4

• PPDA: 7.6 - 15.8

• High Turnovers: 7 - 0

Manchester City have now won three consecutive Premier League matches for the first time since September 2024. Stefan Ortega has played more minutes (all comps) than Jack Grealish, Nathan Ake, and John Stones. Dias-Gvardiol is the first CB pairing to start five consecutive matches for Manchester City this season.

% of Minutes Played All Season vs Since 1st Feb 
Nico O'Reilly 21.5% > 44.7%
Ruben Dias 58.2% > 69.7%
Jack Grealish 31.6% > 23.7%
Bernardo Silva 73.3% > 63.3%
Mateo Kovacic 54.6% > 43.6%

Since the 1st of February, Omar Marmoush has played 73.8% of minutes, Nico Gonzalez 54.0%, and Abdukodir Khusanov 43.8%.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Mateo Kovacic comes in for Nico Gonzalez and James McAtee for Savinho. Similar to how we’ve seen the team play since returning from the International break against an Aston Villa team that has lately looked to progress centrally. Access their double pivots and find the triple 10s in Rogers, Tielemans, and Ramsey. Rashford your runner in behind.

Manchester City pressed like they did against Spurs (A) by not pressing the goalkeeper directly, covering the pivots of Villa (Kamara/Onana), and having Marmoush/McAtee curve their runs towards Martinez. O’Reilly and Nunes would jump to press the opposition full-backs. Ideally, always managing to out-number Villa should they find a way through the press.

What we saw throughout the first half was a battle around that very situation, can Aston Villa manipulate the press of Manchester City to find space and attack. They did find ways, but it’s only through an individual mistake of Nunes and, quite frankly, a soft penalty did they found the net.

When they did have success, it was through either getting the ball out to the full-backs (Digne/Cash) as Nunes/O’Reilly were late to jump. Or it was by pulling De Bruyne/Gundogan out to find one of the pivots, from their quick pass out to the full-back, or Tielemans had them moving towards the City goal.

B. Silva 7' 1-0  

Initially, Manchester City pull Aston Villa over to the right-hand side, work it back across to O'Reilly, then return to the right with Dias. Now, with Gundogan making the run in front of Cash, he's dragged with him, leaving Marmoush free for Ruben Dias to pick out. Marmoush then does well to burst past Cash and fire the ball across the box.

Bernardo Silva arrives in the box to finish that chance, with the help of a deflection and a soft save attempt by Martinez. This is the benefit of having the two players Marmoush and McAtee operating inside, not fixed to the width, who can then move out wide when the space is there. It's the run of Gundogan that will go unnoticed but still be important in the lead-up to the goal.

Jeremy Doku (74’) came on for James McAtee towards the end of the second half, similar to both Everton (A) and United (A), looking to find the winner. You could see the difference in that Gvardiol had a player to fire the ball into directly, and O’Reilly was much more focused on getting into the box.

There were a few times he got the ball either from Gvardiol or Ortega, but Disasi was very tight to him and forced him to foul. So Doku started dragging him out wide, seeing how far he’ll come, and trying to get himself some space to turn.

Manuel Akanji (90’) came on for his end-of-match cameo just as he did against Everton. Like Bobb, he’s being introduced slowly from injury to a few minutes, but I doubt we are seeing him start at the weekend. As useful as he could be. Perhaps Southampton (A) or Wolves (H) will be the one.

M. Nunes 90'+4 1-2 

Similar to the point mentioned in the opening goal, Manchester City wants to pull Aston Villa to one side, then attack the opposite side. This time it was much quicker. Bernardo whips the ball across to Gvardiol, who wastes no time firing the pass into Jeremy Doku. Worth mentioning the detail that Jeremy Doku comes deeper to give Disasi more space to cover. Before that, he was letting him get tight. Gundogan is pinning Konsa, and Kamara needs to track the run of O'Reilly inside. Too much ground for Marlen to cover in support. Now he’s 1v1.

First touch by Doku is just enough in front that Disasi bites to try to win the ball, second touch takes it beyond him, and Doku runs into the space behind. Matheus Nunes hands up completely free running to the back post. Trivela pass from Doku, around the defender at the near-post, curling back towards Nunes to score. Huge moment for them both.

Just the 16 progressive passes from Josko Gvardiol as Manchester City beat Aston Villa. Battling with Morgan Rogers throughout. Finding Jeremy Doku in the lead-up to the game winner. Completed the most defensive actions (20) in the match. No longer a left-back.

Last point to mention is the performance of Bernardo Silva, by no means was this an all-timer appearance, but it was him delivering the level we’d have expected to see across this season, and it matters in a game like this. Collecting the ball deep off the CBs, helping to relieve pressure, and deciding when the team needed to slow down or speed up the tempo.

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Moving Forward

The win against Aston Villa now moves Manchester City ahead of Nottingham Forest into 3rd place. Along with Newcastle and Chelsea, they all have a game in hand to play on the weekend. Chelsea still have to play Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), United (H), and Forest (A). That’s a tough run. Newcastle, as mentioned, still have to play Chelsea as well as playing Arsenal (A) and Brighton (A). There is no denying the win against Aston Villa has put Manchester City in a great position, given the fixtures they have remaining.

If you are looking at games played since the 1st of January, Manchester City has 30 points. Only Liverpool (34) has more in that time. Instead of it being a poor season from start to finish, it’s looking like a terrible few months in the middle. Champions League finish and winning the FA Cup would go a long way to changing perspectives. Although there is no escaping the need for a rebuild, injuries, and the need to have done more business last summer.

It’s not a problem fixed, by any stretch, but when you’re looking at the team across 2025, you are starting to see how that rebuild will take shape. Who's taking on more minutes, as Blue City Brain mentions below. An account worth following.

Next up for Manchester City is a trip to Wembley for the FA Cup semi-final against Nottingham Forest. A match that both sides will be well-prepared for and no doubt look similar to the game in March.

If you’re looking for a podcast, then I recommend this one. I was on with Ninety Three Twenty reviewing the match. 👇

This was an excellent video by LNobbins on analyzing the game. 👇