Manchester City 2-2 Brighton Review

Premier League GW29

Apologies for the late newsletter as had a few personal issues pop up during the last week or so but we’re back with some thoughts on the last two Premier League matches. Then there will be another newsletter during the international break as we assess the progression the team has or has not made in the last few months.

MOTM: OMAR MARMOUSH

We saw some real positive glimpses in this match with his high pressing, involvement in the counter-press, and runs Marmoush made attacking the space around Haaland. All of which were involved in his goal and the winning the penalty.

Notable Stats:

• Only Bruno Fernandes (6) created more chances than Ilkay Gundogan (4) during Premier League GW29.

• Erling Haaland is the first player in Premier League history to reach 100 goal involvements in fewer than 100 appearances.
  ◉ 94 - Erling Haaland
  ◎ 100 - Alan Shearer
  ◎ 116 - Mohamed Salah
  ◎ 116 - Eric Cantona

• Only four Manchester City players have been directly involved in 100+ Premier League goals under Pep Guardiola:
  ◎ 171 - Kevin De Bruyne (251 games)
  ◎ 125 - Raheem Sterling (194 games)
  ◎ 103 - Sergio Aguero (125 games)
  ◉ 100 - Erling Haaland (94 games)

• Jérémy Doku is the only player to complete 13+ take-on in a Premier League game this season, and he's done it twice. 
  ◉ 15 vs. Liverpool 
  ◉ 13 vs. Brighton 

Game Stats:

Manchester City 2-2 Brighton

• xG: 2.02 - 2.62

• xThreat: 1.52 - 1.45

• Possession: 59.3% - 40.7%

• Field Tilt: 59.6% - 40.8%

• Penalty Box Shots: 8 - 12

• Deep Entries: 15 - 13

• PPDA: 7.6 - 13.6

• High Turnovers: 8 - 4

Bernardo Silva has now reached over 3,000 minutes played this season. Khusanov has now started and completed a full 90 minutes in six of the last seven matches. One start in the last nine matches for Mateo Kovacic. Phil Foden has only completed a full 90 minutes once in the last ten matches.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Marmoush came back in for Phil Foden, as was expected with the space he’ll have to attack that Forest wouldn’t have allowed. Rico Lewis is in for Nunes who we saw be better when inverting into midfield than Nunes was against Forest. Ilkay Gundogan is in for Bernardo, playing alongside Nico and looking to get forward to support Doku where he can. The kind of team you’d expect from Brighton this season but Gomez coming in to add more bite to the midfield.

Manchester City wanted to press Brighton high up the pitch, Haaland covering the RCB/KG and Marmoush pressing the LCB whilst shadowing Gomez. Savinho/Doku on the full-backs and Gundogan on Baleba. Brighton would split the CBs wide to find their spare man and make it difficult for City to press them. Joao Pedro would drop deep to support. Which caused issues for Nico/Doku in deciding who would pick him up. When Doku came inside Hinshelwood was free.

When Manchester City wouldn’t fall for the press bait, Brighton would look to hit their runners long, often using balls into Joao Pedro. Have the players around to pick up loose/second balls. That’s what leads to the free kick Estupinan scores. Where Manchester City succeeded in this match, especially in the first half, was counter pressing off the press being broken. That’s what leads to the penalty Marmoush wins.

The lack of a left-footed central defender has been an issue for Manchester City this season with Ake out injured for the majority of the season. Josko Gvardiol playing as the left-back. So the use of Ederson stepping out has helped with that and allowed Gvardiol to advance further forward. Without Ake and Ederson for this match you saw the reluctance of Dias to pass with his left foot on full display.

All of those issues contributed to the passing map that you below. Moving it across the backline was no issue for Manchester City but Nico often had to drop quite deep to be on the ball as Brighton pressed up high. Savinho and Doku played to help progress the ball forward past that press rather than being used once the team moved into the final third.

Brighton on the other hand mixed between building up short when they could but used the wide areas frequently given how well City pressed them high, hitting it long to Joao Pedro and then building off that.

E. Haaland 11’ (Pen) 1-0

It’s a high turnover that Manchester City managed to force which leads to the opening goal. Forcing six in this match to the three of Brighton. The ball is played into Pedro and Gundogan and Nico wins the ball off. Savinho passes to Haaland who then plays Marmoush through into the box and is taken out by Webster sliding across to concede a penalty. It’s not be fixed, but encouraging signs from City in this match with their high press. That’s come from personnel changes.

P. Estupinan 21’ 1-1

Brighton switches it up, goes long and Gvardiol tries to take it down but is dispossessed by Hinshelwood (fouled?) and Nico gives up a free kick in a great position outside the box taking down Rutter as he drives to goal. Estupinan steps up to score a great free kick although it’s not good to see Ortega not dive for it.

O.Marmoush 39’ 2-1

A pass from Gvardiol is misplaced but the counter press from him and Nico recovers back the ball, falling for Gundogan who turns and finds Marmoush in the middle. He drives towards the box and scores from just outside the box. Aguero style of ball striking that.

A. Khusanov 48’ (OG) 2-2

Very similar corner to the one Newcastle scored in the League Cup final this past weekend, deep to the top of the box where you can guarantee a mismatch as Doku is there as a blocker rather than to win the duel. Webster heads it back towards the goal, Khusanov makes the mistake of dropping to play the Brighton players onside and in trying to make a block deflects it into the goal.

It’s not like Manchester City didn’t have chances in this match, two big ones for Savinho as well as the shot Haaland had and the header Nico had inside the 6-yard box. Brighton had some big chances as well with the Joao Pedro shot on the edge of the box and the cutback that Baleba hits well wide of the goal.

There was plenty of conversation around Jeremy Doku after the match so I went back through his take-ons in the match which you can find linked in the thread below. He helped the team progress the ball into the final third with these take-ons, providing the joint most entries in the final third (8) in the match. Doku also had the most penalty box entries (6) in this match with Bernardo Silva (4) second.

When you go back through the thread you’ll see the big chance Savinho had (23’) came from his initial carry into the final third to pass inside to Gundogan. The first time shot Haaland hits over the goal, it’s Doku who beats a man and then plays a pass through to Gundogan who made a run into space out wide. Space that’s made from Doku drawing Hinshelwood and Minteh into him.

Since returning from injury Jeremy Doku has been one of the players every match making something happen, all game long trying to find a way through and create something. That shouldn’t be the top of our list to criticize. Just the same as Marmoush/Haaland not having their movement synced up. That’s going to take time.

Where I would turn my focus in the attacking sense for Jeremy Doku is the movement around him, the runners going beyond, and the eight that’s operating inside. Some of his best work and best chances City had was between himself and Gundogan linking up to then find another player in the box. We’ve lacked having that left eight all season.

The best performance from Jeremy Doku this season was against Ipswich, when he had De Bruyne making runs beyond him, and he’s not been consistently available either. Let’s solve that problem, get Rodri back in the team, and find Jeremy Doku in isolation before we overanalyze his play in the final third.

Instead, I’d look toward the improvements Jeremy Doku can make off the ball, as his high pressing has been better timed but his backtracking is not intense enough, he’s been caught out with his distancing and has not been coordinated with Gvardiol tracking the winger/full-back movements on the edge of the box. That’s where I’d like to see him improve.

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Moving Forward

Oscar Bobb and Vitor Reis both started for the EDS in the last match against Crystal Palace, each coming off in the second half after pre-planned substitutions. Encouraging to see Bobb especially moving along in his recovery after the setback he had last month. Certainly, a player that would have impacted this season and could still contribute to the push for the Champions League and the FA Cup.

The shift from the older players to the younger ones, the new signings in particular is undeniable since the January transfer window closed. The return of Rodri and Bobb adds to that. It highlights not only which players should be moved on in the summer, but also the lack of proper options on the bench for the rest of this season.

Guardiola has moved most if not all the players that fans have been disappointed with onto the bench, it’s the right move, but that then means your options in the second half are few.

The most used central defender pairings this season have been Dias-Akanji for twelve matches, Stones-Akanji for seven matches, and Ake-Akanji for six matches. All four of those players have had at least two separate periods out injured this season. Even if Guardiola wanted to, there has been no opportunity to build a consistent CB pairing this season. Along with Rodri out. It’s only compounded issues and not allowed the team to have a strong foundation to build on.

If you haven’t already listened to it, I’d recommend checking out the podcast linked below looking at the possible options to succeed Ederson in the summer should his Saudi move come back again. We also spoke about the strengths and weaknesses of Ederson/Ortega, how the position/role has changed, and what’s going to fit City best long term.

Next up for Manchester City is the FA Cup Quarter Final match against Bournemouth on the 30th of March at 16:30 (UK). After returning from the International break.

Nottingham Forest 1-0 Manchester City Review

Premier League GW28

For me, this was one of those games that I find difficult to be too upset about unless we’re in a title race needing to win them all. Playing a low block, this well-organized, and keeping them from having so few chances on the break is not easy to do. It’s even harder to break them down. Guardiola started both Doku and Savinho to stretch the pitch and be a threat 1v1. Bernardo and Foden either side to support them from the half-spaces. They could find the final action and Forest had a great game plan to stop it happening.

Game Stats:

Nottingham Forest 1-0 Manchester City

• xG: 0.57 - 0.83

• xThreat: 1.09 - 1.04

• Possession: 31.7% - 68.3%

• Field Tilt: 31.5% - 68.5%

• Penalty Box Shots: 6 - 6

• Deep Entries: 11 - 14

• PPDA: 14.6 - 7.7

• High Turnovers: 5 - 1

Nottingham Forest was set up well to negate Manchester City in their low block the other weekend. Built on the shoulders of Morgan Gibbs-White. Both full-backs are free to focus on defending 1v1 against Doku/Savinho. Anderson/Dominguez are tracking Foden/Bernardo in the pockets. If the ball goes into the winger, then MGW will take over from covering the pockets as Anderson/Dominguez comes to double up.

Forest was happy to let Ruben Dias be free on the ball. Never pressed high enough to let Ederson be a genuine threat as the plus one. CHO would apply pressure on Khusanov. Elanga/Wood covered the pivots in Nico/Nunes. MGW was then behind them to support them in case a gap opened up. If Gvardiol was on the ball, MGW would take over covering Foden to allow Dominguez to jump up and apply pressure.

In previous matches, Nottingham Forest defended well in their low block, but by being so passive, it allowed the opposition to break them down eventually. They did not make that mistake against Manchester City.

Those struggles stood out in the passing maps when you look at Manchester City finding it quite easy to work the ball across the backline in Jeremy Doku, to find Nico centrally and the odd switches across to Savinho but not much else.

When Forest was able to break, Elanga was already close to CHO due to their OOP setup, MGW at the center of it all and Chris Wood supporting them in transition.

C. Hudson-Odoi 83' 1-0  

There is no way to ignore what was a very poor mistake from Ederson to not save the near-post shot. It's not ideal that Gvardiol is quite passive in defending 1v1 instead of getting across and being more aggressive against CHO.

But the focus, as it's always been this season, is how passive the team is further up the pitch. Particularly in the 'in-between moments' as the team tries to adjust and set up their OOP structure. Mateo Kovacic wins back the ball and plays a pass through to Marmoush, but he's beaten off the ball by Aina, who had an excellent game, and it's passed back to Sels. Aina gets the ball back right away and passes to MGW, who drops to collect. Manchester City is in the process of getting into shape but is not quick enough.

Bernardo is in place to stop MGW from turning to his right and passing to N. Williams. No City player is there to put pressure on the ball, so he's free to move inside and switch the ball out to CHO on the other side.

As you can see with how early CHO gets the ball, and with so much space to attack, Gvardiol can't go out too quickly. The damage is done in the initial pass. Doku doesn't get back to support, it's all about tracking the midfielder runners and the movement of Wood in the box. Instead, CHO shoots near-post, and Ederson cannot make the save.

Dias/Khusanov are in a good position to block Wood, and I don't think there ever becomes a good opportunity to pass across to MGW.

The substitutions got plenty of criticism but in the first half, Nico and Nunes had zero progressive passes between the two of them. The carry-first instinct from Matheus Nunes along with Nico, as we’ve seen this season, struggling to maintain intensity across ninety minutes made sense for Guardiola to look for something different as it was likely only one goal was needed to win this.

Lewis is much more comfortable on the ball centrally, looking for the right pass than Nunes. Kovacic, for all his faults this season, has taken risks on the edge of the box to get goals, will try to burst through a midfield gap to make something happen, and has played a few balls over the top for Haaland. There were some bright sparks from Foden and Bernardo as the two eights but they couldn’t quite create a clear chance.

For Nottingham Forest, this win gave them the breathing room and momentum to go on for Champions League football. For Manchester City, this made finishing in the top five all the more difficult, even with very favorable fixtures coming up.