Manchester City 3-0 Nottingham Forest Review

Premier League GW14

It’s been over a month without a win but finally, Manchester City ended that run by beating Nottingham Forest. The result will give the players some confidence, the performance that will give Guardiola some confidence, but it is still just one match. Are there enough positive signs to think this will continue at the weekend?

Notable Stats:

• Man City have made more changes to their starting line-ups than any other team in the Premier League this season (37), making 3+ changes in seven consecutive league games within the same season for the first time since May 2021.

• Kevin De Bruyne has now been directly involved in 12 goals in his last 15 Premier League starts (4 goals, 8 assists). In seven of the last eight Premier League games Kevin De Bruyne has scored in, he has also recorded an assist.

• Kevin De Bruyne made his first start since the 0-0 draw against Inter Milan on the 18th of September.

Game Stats:

Man City 3-0 Nottingham Forest

• xG: 2.87 - 1.0

• xThreat: 1.72 - 1.20

• Possession: 65.5% - 34.5%

• Field Tilt: 65.8% - 34.2%

• Penalty Box Shots: 12 - 8

• Deep Entries: 23 - 8

• PPDA: 6.5 - 9.8

• High Turnovers: 6 - 7

It’s nice to see the team on the right side of xG after the recent run of losses. From the last match against Liverpool, the penalty box shots went up from 6 to 12, final third entries up from 37 to 50, successful crosses up from 0 to 6, and xG up from 0.76 to 2.87.

Included below is a ten-match rolling average for the xG and xGA this season, the trend of xGA increasing began much sooner than the losing run and has started to plateau. This win against Forest needs to be a turning point defensively if Manchester City wants to keep winning football matches, you simply cannot afford to give up almost 2xGA every match and expect to win consistently.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet linked below. 👇

Pleasantly surprised when the team news came out to see a back four which is probably our best combination, De Bruyne starting, Doku starting, and Grealish playing in midfield. Phil Foden was not in the squad, reported to have bronchitis.

In possession Josko Gvardiol was free to push up to the forward line, Jack Grealish next to Ilkay Gundogan in what was a 3-2-5 where either of them could then make runs into the box. Jeremy Doku and Bernardo Silva are the two wingers.

When out of possession, Manchester City defended in a 4-1-4-1 shape, one of the eights in Grealish or De Bruyne could then push out to support the wingers.

Football Bunseki is an excellent account to follow which you can check out below. As he mentioned, Nottingham Forest was trying to ensure Haaland was always marked by their two CBs and because they made that choice the space appeared on either side. That’s what Manchester City looked to exploit. De Bruyne is in the right half-space, making 1-2 passe with Bernardo Silva. Josko Gvardiol is in the left-half space making runs from deep to support Jeremy Doku, dragging players with him to open up space inside.

Bernardo Silva (8’) 1-0

It's the little details leading up to the goal that often get cut out of the highlight reels and not mentioned. Nathan Ake is good at spotting space to drive into, which he does here, and plays a pass through to Gvardiol as he runs in behind. Gundogan is free to make the run into the box, since Grealish is aware enough to cover, which Gvardiol picks out. Dinked cross to the back-post for De Bruyne who heads it back toward goal and Bernardo Silva manages to tip it in on the line.

Morgan Gibbs-White (17’) had a good chance here that came from Gvardiol being disposed of by Jota Silva, making a pass back to him at the top of the box. Shot was saved by Ortega.

Chris Wood (30’) had their best chance of the match after De Bruyne's back pass to Ruben Dias was overhit, falling into the path of Wood. Through in on goal he missed just wide of the bottom left corner.

Kevin De Bruyne (31’) 2-0

Another goal where Gvardiol is involved in the leadup to it with his run into the box and Jack Grealish occupying Aina leaves Doku 1v1. Doku is explosive, shifty, and strong enough to get through small gaps so if you give him space on either side to attack it's a nightmare to read. He shifts inside, De Bruyne realizes and backs up into space on the edge of the box. Doku lines up to shoot before laying it off for De Bruyne to turn and score into the left corner, shooting back across the keeper.

Kyle Walker came on at half-time for Akanji, who likely picked up an injury or has been playing through one based on the comments Pep Guardiola made post-match. Nathan Ake came off at the end of the match injured.

Jeremy Doku (57’) 3-0

Underappreciated for Haaland is how efficient he is in transition with his passing. Pass through for Gvardiol earlier in the match, this one here for Doku sends him away. Then Haaland makes the run through the middle taking Murillo with him, De Bruyne trying to arrive late into the box. Instead of passing to Haaland or delaying longer for De Bruyne, Doku comes inside along the box, curling a shot into the bottom right corner.

When you go through the list of players among Jeremy Doku this season for doing all of that in a single match, it shows that at his best he’s a match-winner. He’s not started a match since Wolves (A) due to injury but if he can put together a consistent run along with having the runners around him like we saw against Nottingham Forest then I’m excited to see how he gets on. The team needs wingers who are willing to take shots and Jeremy Doku certainly does that. Grealish, Ake, and De Bruyne were great at finding him in the right moments in space.

I think it was clear last season when De Bruyne returned that this is his team and the impact he has is like no other in the world perhaps only for a few players. Against Nottingham Forest you saw that same impact with him starting the match, the confidence in the team was elevated.

Stefan Ortega has done well in his two starts, we could be seeing the beginning of him displacing Ederson so it’ll be interesting to see if this continues into the match against Crystal Palace and Juventus. Something to keep an eye on.

Rico Lewis came on for De Bruyne in the second half (74’) with the game almost wrapped up and not needing to push him to a full ninety. Savinho, Nunes, and McAtee then appeared for a few minutes (90’) at the end of the match.

Moving Forward

The list of scorers is starting to look better after Bernard, Doku, and De Bruyne scored against Forest. Desperately needs that to continue for the next run of games. Manchester City is back in the top four but could drop out if Brighton beats Fulham this evening. Although Liverpool has a 7-point lead at the top, the rest of the table remains very tight. The gap is beginning to appear between the bottom three and the rest of the table.

Now it’s about taking a good single result and showing that the team has turned it around by winning a few games in a row. Crystal Palace (A) will not be an easy team to break down, currently fighting to stay out of the relegation zone. Juventus (A) to try to turn around the Champions League qualification where a win is needed. They are sat 6th in Serie A after fourteen matches, and drawn their last two.

In my opinion, the club needs to look at adding a central defender in January. This news is on top of John Stones being out for a long time. Not having a fit group of defenders was one of the big issues during the losing run.

Jack Grealish Playing #8

I’ve left this out till the moving forward section because that’s where the real questions are after his performance. Grealish was excellent next to Gundogan in midfield when needed deeper, didn’t mess about with his touches or passes, knew when to speed up the play and slow it down, could be depended on to keep the ball, and could carry it through the thirds. He also gave Gundogan some freedom to make runs into the box at the right moment with him sitting back deeper. Made a key block inside the box.

Here is his touch map against Nottingham Forest, operating on the left side, making touches around the box, and Grealish made some good runs into the box from deeper.

As mentioned in the list below, this is the fifth-highest total for progressive passes in a single Premier League match this season. It’s the most progressive passes Jack Grealish has provided in a single PL match, across his career. It’s a move I’d like to see continue for the next few games, and hopefully, we’ll see a consistent run of performances from Grealish.

Next up for Manchester City is a trip to London, taking on Crystal Palace on Saturday 7th December 15:00 (GMT). They sit 17th in the Premier League table and won their last match against Ipswich 1-0.