Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea Review

Premier League GW23

This performance was the confidence boost the team, and fans needed heading into the tough February fixture list. Through early adversity, Manchester City showed why they have been so difficult to judge this season, and why a top-four finish is possible. Chelsea on the other hand, a team that had been praised for its hot start to the season still has plenty of doubts about making the top four.

MOTM: JOSKO GVARDIOL

Notable Stats:

• No Premier League side has failed to win more games across all competitions in which they have been leading this season than Pep Guardiola’s side (9), while in Premier League games alone they have dropped 14 points from winning positions already. That total is already more than in any single Premier League season since 2008-09 (20).

• Ederson now has five assists in the Premier League, the joint-most by a goalkeeper in the competition's history along with Paul Robinson.

• Phil Foden has scored in four consecutive Premier League games for the first time in his career.

Game Stats:

Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea

• xG: 2.70 - 1.61

• xThreat: 0.85 - 0.63

• Possession: 56.4% - 43.6%

• Field Tilt: 56.5% - 43.5%

• Penalty Box Shots: 9 - 7

• Deep Entries: 8 - 10

• PPDA: 11.2 - 16.4

• High Turnovers: 1 - 7

xG continues to trend upwards, a positive sign that at least the team will score goals in the second half of the season, it’s just whether they can manage the leads better and reduce the space given to the opposition to attack. The PSG match bumped up xGA significantly.

An important graphic to highlight here below is that despite the struggles the team has had, they are very close to picking up far more points if they can control leads better.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Some bold decisions were made by Guardiola in starting two new signings, Khusanov and Marmoush. A midfield trio of Kovacic, Gundogan, and Bernardo was not a popular decision, but by the end of the match, they showed why. Chelsea had Colwill and Enzo back in the team to start, and Chalobah came into the match after an impressive performance midweek against Wolves.

For Manchester City, we saw Guardiola go back to the title run-in setup (2-3-5) with two full-backs given the freedom to push high up the push, Marmoush and Foden moving inside to occupy the half-spaces. One of the full-backs would look for runs inside, whilst the other was holding width available for a switch.

The midfield trio of Bernardo, Kovacic, and Gundogan would be deeper in front of the two CBs, free to rotate among one another, which suited them much better than being defined as a six. All of this is clear to see with the passing network graphic below from Mark Stats Bot. They didn’t find him enough, but the movement of Marmoush was promising. He made several excellent runs in the first half that weren’t picked out, but they will be eventually. Especially when Rodri is back.

If City wasn’t pressing man-to-man, they were leaving Chelsea with Sanchez and Cucurella free, which pushed them down the left side when they did buildup and away from Palmer. Leaving Sancho congested. There were a couple of nice passes in behind for Madueke to chase, but once Gvardiol pushed up higher, the runs stopped.

N. Madueke 3’ 0-1

It’s been overplayed in the media and online, but the reaction in particular of City fans after the mistake by Khusanov was encouraging. Including the team to rally around him, and Bernardo Silva dropping deep next to Khusanov. Those are the type of decisions on the pitch Guardiola picks Bernardo for. Poor decision by Khusanov to head it back to Ederson for Jackson to run onto, not helped by the language barrier or by Akanji coming over, which blocks his sight of Jackson running across.

After that, Khusanov picks up a yellow card for a rash challenge on Palmer just outside the box, but would then go on to have a good debut performance. Made some safe passes, then eventually tried to find Foden in the pockets a few times. That notable block on Sancho prevented Chelsea from going 2-0 up and shoved Jackson off the ball outside the box.

It’s passes like this one below which is why I’d be excited about Khusanovs potential, along with his character to handle that mistake and play himself into a decent performance in a difficult game.

A loose touch from Marmoush led to the chance Palmer had going through on goal, but it was a poor time for Akanji to play that pass into him. Palmer then gives an equally poor pass across to Jackson, heading wide that he can’t shoot first time, and a big chance for Chelsea to go 2-0 up is missed.

Manchester City started to turn it on more after those chances, this shot from Phil Foden, after Bernardo Silva pulled two Chelsea players into him, hits the post.

J. Gvardiol 42' 1-1 

Excellent run from Matheus Nunes behind the Chelsea back line, picked out with the pass by Gundogan over the top. Gvardiol and Haaland follow him up with their runs toward the 6-yard box. The former gets his reward as the rebound falls to him.

Chelsea already had a warning before the goal after Gvardiol made this run from out to in and shot wide of the post.

Touch map of Gvardiol and Nunes against Chelsea, with the 2-3-5 shape, they were given the freedom to get up and down the touchline. Both have the athleticism to get up and down the pitch, the technical ability on the ball to move inside, and can make smart runs. Gvardiol has shown better decision-making once in the box, but it’s an impressive show of character from Nunes after the midweek PSG loss.

John Stones (54’) came on for Khusanov in the second half, as Guardiola explained afterward, he needed to get minutes ahead of the match against Club Brugge midweek but has been bringing him back slowly. After Jackon had a shot in the 58’ minute, Chelsea didn’t have a single open-play shot for the rest of the match.

E. Haaland 68' 2-1 

As poor as the decision was by Sanchez coming out, it starts with an excellent pass over the top by Ederson, which exploits the original poor decision by Chelsea to leave Haaland M2M with space to attack. Just like the goal Gvardiol scored, there were warning signs earlier in the match when Haaland got past Colwill.

P. Foden 87' 3-1 

Guardiola brought on De Bruyne (74’) for Marmoush and they started using him to win the ball, or he was trying to run onto the second ball. Ederson's long pass into De Bruyne flicked on for Haaland to hold up and rolled into the path of Foden as he ran through the middle. The decision of Chalobah to support Colwill leaves Foden free, and there is no Chelsea DM nearby to help either.

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Moving Forward

There is no avoiding how important this win was, as I mentioned at the start, for the fans and the team heading into this tough fixture run. There is no doubt how tough it will be, but a few are at home, and those are the teams competing with you for the CL spots. Exactly who you’d want to take points off.

Manchester City now has two players with 10+ goals across all competitions as Phil Foden (10) joins Erling Haaland (24). Matheus Nunes (8) still leads the team for assists. The team finishes the weekend in the top four, ahead of Newcastle on goal difference, and overtaking Chelsea. Forest is now only three points ahead with a game to come.

The movement of Marmoush is exciting to see, whether it’s his pressing up top or the runs he makes in behind, you can see the energy he’s given the team. That’ll be important in the big games coming up, in the knockout rounds, if the CL if City reaches them and puts real pressure on those further down the pecking order to deliver. Savinho and Grealish were on the bench, Doku is injured right now, Bobb is back in training, and McAtee wants to push his way into the team. All were not needed against Chelsea. When their opportunity comes off the bench, in the cup matches, or due to another player being injured, they must take it.

If you’re looking for more content analyzing the match, then I recommend checking out this thread from American Cityzen, which also explores the possible setup moving forward with the 2-3-5.

Next up for Manchester City is a crucial match in the Champions League against Club Brugge, a win takes them through to the next round of the competition, and a loss dumps them out. That’ll take place on the 29th of January, at 20:00 (GMT).

PSG 4-2 Manchester City

Champions League - League Phase GW7

I’d had a busy week so wasn’t able to cover the PSG match in a full review but wanted to make sure a couple of points were covered. The first being that away from the squad recruitment and injury problems, City was soundly beaten.

Guardiola spoke post-match that Manchester City could not deal with the overload in midfield. Doue and Lee were both fluid, dropping into the midfield as double false nines of sorts and keeping Kovacic occupied. Plus one with the two CBs wasn’t useful or needed. Vitinha and Ruiz were able to act as the free man out wide, collect the ball, and carry through the M2M press. Use of Hakimi in the half-space during the buildup and eventually moving out wide would leave Gvardiol stuck on who to press. Of course, Manchester City needed to rebuild the midfield in the summer and are starting that process now, but they also didn't have an answer for the overloads PSG created.

Guardiola mentioned after the match that the team needs the ball to survive, which explains the shift in setup against Chelsea, playing Bernardo, Kovacic, and Gundogan. Neither Rico Lewis nor James McAtee did themselves any favors getting back into the team, although the sub of Rico was driven by the injury Dias picked up. Grealish came on for Savinho, who Guardiola was visibly frustrated with throughout the first half, either losing the ball in poor positions or making the wrong decision in the final third.

In hindsight, seeing the way the team played against Chelsea, I think it’s just clear to see the team needs its influx of new players coming in and stepping up. It needs energy, runners, and to support Haaland more. Along with them showing that there is a soft underbelly when it comes to defending leads, that must be removed. PSG has had a big rebuild, bringing in several young midfielders, compared to Manchester City that needs to start that process now and in the summer.

All that being said, the game against Brugge is a must-win and will take them into the knockout rounds. Marmoush will then be in the team, other players are back from injury, and you just never know how far they could go. Especially if they buy a midfielder.