Manchester City vs Brentford Preview

Premier League GW4

Manchester City are back after the first international fixture and although they beat Brentford twice last season, I have a feeling this one will not be as easy. Last season Mbeumo and Wissa were injured for large spells of games and Thomas Frank had to lean into the strengths of his personnel. Ivan Toney and Neal Muapay. They have started the season playing back for in all matches, a front three that can press high and be aggressive. Will they continue with that approach against City on Saturday?

Below is the dashboard to bring you back up to speed on the Premier League table, the top scorers for the team, our next two fixtures, and the last two results. All reviews of the previous matches can be found here.

Previous Results

• Manchester City have won all three of their opening Premier League matches. Beating Chelsea (A) 0-2, Ipswich Town (H) 4-1 and West Ham (A) 1-3.

• Brentford has won two of their opening three Premier League matches. Beating Crystal Palace (H) 2-1, losing to Liverpool (A) 2-0 and beating Southampton (H) 3-1. They also beat Colchester (A) 0-1 in the EFL Cup second round.

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City are without Oscar Bobb. Savinho and Phil Foden have returned to first-team training. Nathan Ake is expected to be out at least until the next international break.

• Brentford are without Joshua Dasilva (knee), Rico Henry (knee), Aaron Hickey (thigh), and Igor Thiago (knee). Jensen will be out with a calf injury.

Brentford Setup

I’d mentioned that Brentford played a back four in all of their matches so far. Last season they played a back five against City but now they are without Toney to play long to. They were using a front three of Mbeumo, Wissa, and Schade against Crystal Palace and Southampton. Willing to be aggressive in their press.

Against Liverpool, they switched to a 4-4-2. Trying to narrow the space between the lines, not get overloaded in midfield, and use their two forwards, Mbeumo and Wissa, to press Liverpool’s double pivot. So they reacted by playing a single pivot (Gravenberch) while Mac Allister floated around him never on the same line. He was looking for a pass between the lines as well as dropping into the back line. Disrupting the Brentford press. Ideally, Liverpool wanted to pull a wide player out of position to open up a pass down the flank or were looking to overload Brentford in the middle.

Below are the teams Brentford played against City last season in the Premier League, playing a back five in both. Ivan Toney a key part of their attacking plans. Worth noting that Flekken had perhaps his best two games during the season against City. Phil Foden eventually got himself a hat trick in the away match but it was much more difficult for City at home to score.

In his press conference, when asked about playing against Manchester City.

Perhaps the sign then that they will not shift to a five, still look to press high and we’ll see a setup like the one above with four at the back. Some changes due to injury.

On stopping Erling Haaland.

On Pep Guardiola.

Manchester City Setup

This would be the team I’d like to see play against Brentford, assuming Savinho is back fit, returning the approach we saw against Chelsea and Ipswich. Rodri is back in the team after getting some minutes for Spain on international break.

We do however have Inter Milan coming up midweek, although there is plenty of time to prepare for it. Arsenal (H) after that. Managing fitness for those matches will be weighing on Pep’s decisions.

Bearing that in mind, it would not surprise me to see Rodri start against Inter Milan instead and get limited minutes against Brentford. Keeping Kovacic in for the weekend. Kyle Walker will be a consideration for this match with the threat in transition and wanting to give him a full 90 minutes ASAP.

Inter Milan (H) seems a match better suited for John Stones to start than the Brentford match. We can rule out any rotation of Gvardiol via Ake, due to injury. So something like the team below wouldn’t surprise me at all.

It’s important that although some players are not ideal for the opposition we are facing, they get minutes in the legs to be a genuine option Pep can use against Inter Milan and Arsenal. Two tough matches.

Jack Grealish started two England matches consecutively for the first time since 2021. Putting in good performances that on paper look like he’s playing as a number ten but in possession it’s as a left-central midfielder. Exceptional at carrying the ball up the pitch. Very much the same freedom he’s afforded for City. He had Gordon as the left winger to pass into vs De Bruyne in the West Ham match and that’s what Grealish needs. Playing Grealish and Savinho as the two wingers could be the route Guardiola goes down against Brentford.

Final Predictions

Ones to Watch: 

Manchester City players to watch in this game will be no surprise and that’s Kevin De Bruyne. He looks sharp and although it’s a small sample size those are stupid numbers in the graphic below.

He’s coming off an international break frustrated with the standards of his teammates. That is not good news for the opposition. On the pitch, City will need him to link up with Doku or Grealish on the left wing and take advantage of any central space afforded to him. Assuming that Brentford uses two forwards, City should be able to handle those two and overload the midfield.

Should City struggle to deal with the transitions, not being careful on the ball then one player that will do damage is Bryan Mbeumo. Unfortunate with injuries last season but he’s back and has started well with three goals. It reminds me of Mane playing at Southampton before the Liverpool move, clearly a player who can play for the top clubs and on a good day will turn your team inside out.

Predicted Lineup:

Season Average: 10.3

Predicted Score: Manchester City 3 - 1 Brentford

Extra Bits

In case you missed it, here is a recent thread on how Manchester City built up against West Ham. The roles Rico Lewis and Kevin De Bruyne played.

One interesting point over the years watching Pep Guardiola manage Manchester City is how slowly he introduces young players. Phil Foden is a clear example of that, here are his cumulative minutes by age, compared to Saka and Sterling.

The last graphic is a bit of fun, comparing the scoring rate of Erling Haaland to Messi and Ronaldo. The consistency across their career is what makes those two players great. The numbers that Haaland is putting up, should he maintain them will put him up there with those players at the very least for goal-scoring.

Some thoughts on the England setup under Lee Carsely. Fluid rotations, fresh faces, and plenty of tough selection decisions ahead.

LAST WORD👋

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