Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest Preview

Premier League GW14

Ruben Dias spoke after the Liverpool match about seeing the character required to build back from, that their entire focus is now on winning the name game in front of them. Nothing else. Well, Nottingham Forest present a difficult challenge this evening with their striker in form, a strong CB partnership, and attackers able to hurt them in transition. If they want three points it will not be easy…

Previous Results

• Manchester City have lost their last four Premier League matches, against Liverpool (2-0), Spurs (0-4), Brighton (2-1), and Bournemouth (2-1). They are currently sitting fifth in the Premier League table.

• Nottingham Forest won two matches in November, against West Ham (3-0) and Ipswich (1-0). They lost against Newcastle (1-3) and Arsenal (3-0), currently sitting 6th in the Premier League table.

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City are without Rodri (ACL), Oscar Bobb (leg), Mateo Kovacic, and John Stones (foot).

• Nottingham Forest are without Ibrahim Sangare (thigh) and Danilo (ankle).

Interesting Forest PL Stats:

• Only Liverpool (8) have conceded fewer goals than Nottingham Forest (13) this season.

• Nottingham Forest goalkeepers launch 77.9% of their passes over 40 yards, the highest percentage in the league, second is Everton (54.2%).

• Only Spurs (47) and Liverpool (43) have allowed fewer shots on target against them this season than Nottingham Forest (48).

• Nottingham Forest has the league's lowest number of passes into the final third (305), 3rd lowest number of progressive passes (379), and 2nd lowest number of passes into the penalty area (71). The second lowest average possession (41.7%).

• Only Liverpool (7) and Manchester United (6) have kept more clean sheets than Nottingham Forest (5).

Nottingham Forest has several players either in excellent form or have provided a good patch of form along their start to the season which has seen them be mostly in the top four. Elliot Anderson joined from Newcastle and provided three assists in the league. Dynamic in midfield, offering a high work rate and volume of carries through the middle.

Callum Hudson-Odoi and Elanga offer them quick threats in transition and players that can attack space in behind. Morgan Gibbs-White goes under the radar as an attacking midfielder given the wealth of talent England has in the position but last season scored five goals and provided ten assists in the Premier League. Seven through balls completed. Top three in this squad for key passes, passes into the final third, passes into the penalty area, progressive passes, shot-creating actions, goal-creating actions, and carries into the final third. He’s vital in linking to their forward line.

Chris Wood has scored nine goals in the league this season, which has secured four draws, and game-winners against Crystal Palace, Leicester Cit,y and Ipswich. Murillo and Milenkovic's partnership has been the foundation for Forest to build on this season. I highlighted at the start with the stats that Forest is quite clearly set up to cede possession, comfortable defending in their block, and exploit the space in transition. You need a strong backline to do that.

Murillo is a central defender I think Manchester City should be looking at in the summer. He’s provided five through balls this season, all of which come from him making long driving runs marauding with the ball forward before playing through a teammate. Leads the squad significantly for clearances (80), and shots blocked (18), and is only behind their keeper for long passes completed as he’ll be one of the players looking to set away their attackers in transition. He’ll always look for the more expansive passing option, long raking switches of play to the isolated wide players, and fizzing ground passes between the lines.

Nikola Milenjovic will also look to hit the long switches out to wide players, third in the team for long passes completed, and less expansive passing on the ground. Only behind Chris Wood in the squad for aerial duels won (31) and winning 62% of them. Whilst Murillo is tracking the runner 1v1, it’s Milenjovic who is then free to dominate the duels in the air or sweep up with interceptions.

Both matches last season ended with Manchester City winning by two goals, the first at the Etihad was the match Rodri got sent off, and before that were well on top. Had to defend for most of the second half, kept the clean sheet, and Forest to very few good chances if any. The away fixture was a different story in the title run-in, clunky first half for Manchester City whilst Forest caused them plenty of problems getting behind Kyle Walker when he was tucking into midfield. In the two best chances of the game, Chris Wood missed the target (38’) and Murillo (45+3’) hit the woodwork. Erling Haaland came on in the second to kill the match, making it 0-2.

This season Forest has only built on the qualities they showed in the away fixture, defending better as a unit sat deep in their block and more efficient in the opportunities they get to attack in transition. Manchester City has only become weaker at preventing those spaces from appearing, giving away more opportunities with poor passes, and not having the midfielders able to recover.

That being said if you go back through the matches that Nottingham Forest have lost and in particular the Arsenal match then it’s clear that using the wide areas is a route to victory. Underlapping runs behind their full-backs and pulling the opposition block deeper to open up space to shoot on the edge of the box. Which I why at least one of Savinho or Doku needs to start the match.

If you want to find Erling Haaland then you need to first get the ball between the lines to the likes of Phil Foden on the half-turn, which then Haaland can make a run for in the box. Rather than expecting him to win long balls all game against Murillo/Milenkovic. That kind of space will open up more so in the second half. Provided that City is in a winning game state.

Don’t be surprised if we see Jack Grealish play in midfield this match after the comments by Guardiola post-match.

Final Predictions

Ones to Watch: 

For Nottingham Forest, it’s about being efficient in transition moments because,e with the current form of Manchester City, you can be confident those opportunities will come. Morgan Gibbs-White is the player to do that, to pounce on poor touches pass by midfielders and drive through the middle of the pitch.

For Manchester City, I think your wide players will win you the match by either creating space for another player (Foden/Haaland) or providing the final pass. You’ve got to move Nottingham Forest around in their defensive block or have someone able to pick the lock from out wide. Savinho and Jeremy Doku are the two players to do that.

Predicted Lineup:

Predicted Score: Manchester City 2-1 Nottingham Forest