Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Preview

Premier League GW28

The first game of the weekend is a battle for third place as Manchester City travel to take on Nottingham Forest in a match that last season they had to suffer to get the win. Forest is in a much better position this time in the league, although they are going through a poor run of form. Another loss for them will open up the door for dropping further down the table, with Chelsea just two points behind.

Previous Results:

• Manchester City has won three of their last five Premier League matches, with the two losses coming against Arsenal and Liverpool.

• Nottingham Forest has only won one of their last five Premier League matches, with that win coming against Brighton (7-0). Losing against Bournemouth (0-5), Fulham (1-2), and Newcastle United (3-4). Drawing against Arsenal (0-0).

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City is without Rodri (knee), John Stones (thigh), Manuel Akanji, and Nathan Ake (foot). Oscar Bobb is being assessed and could be on the bench this weekend.

• Nottingham Forest is currently assessing Carlos dos Santos Pereira for fitness, but he’s unlikely to be involved on the weekend.

Interesting Nottingham Forest Stats:

• Chris Wood is the first Nottingham Forest player to score a top-flight hat-trick at the City Ground since Nigel Clough against QPR in December 1987.

• Chris Wood has scored 18 Premier League goals this season, his outright most ever in a single campaign (14 in 2019-20 and 2023-24). Only Stan Collymore (22 in 1994-95) has ever scored more for Nottingham Forest in a season in the competition.

• In the Premier League this season, only Liverpool (12) have kept more clean sheets than Nottingham Forest (11).

• Nottingham Forest has the highest % of goal kicks (65.2%) and goalkeeper passes (77.3%) launched in the Premier League this season.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Nottingham Forest

Before getting into any specifics, it’s important to highlight the genuine opportunity that Nottingham Forest has to get Champions League football next season, looking at the remaining fixtures across those competing. That raises the stakes for this game, where even a point for Forest is a great result and means they keep hold of third position longer.

If we roll back the weeks to the Etihad match, this was before any new signings in January and the middle of the losing run. It was a match most expected to be very tough, given the form of Nottingham Forest at the time, the quality players they have on the break, and Chris Wood scoring goals for fun.

Jeremy Doku and De Bruyne, in particular, were excellent, as well as Jack Grealish, making his first proper appearance as a central midfielder. Immediately showed how well he could retain the ball in the middle of the park compared to the rest of the options and provided plenty of well-timed passes out to Jeremy Doku in space on the left. Grealish ticked those boxes. But the issues about the midfield smelling danger, providing movement across the final third and into the box with their runs, and the expansive passing range needed for a player sitting deep in front of the opposition block were still there.

If we go even further back to the away match last season, the first half was a struggle for Manchester City as Nottingham Forest created 1.27xG, the highest created by any side against them that season. Kyle Walker was tucking in midfield and then having to spring back out to deal with Hudson-Odoi and Aina in transition 2v1. Grealish was coming inside, and De Bruyne/Bernardo weren’t over to support Doku, so if he lost the ball, there was no counterpress, just acres of space to attack.

In the second half, Guardiola made a change as Mateo Kovacic came on for Jeremy Doku at half-time since he ‘wanted more passes’. Kovacic sat next to Rodri, and Bernardo Silva shifted across to the right wing role. Nottingham Forest would only create 0.38xG in the second half. Haaland came on towards the end of the second half so City could stretch the game looking for him in behind. De Bruyne did that, and Haaland wrapped up the result 0-2.

This is all to say that I think you’re going to see a blend of the two needed against Forest on Saturday. He won’t want to leave number six isolated, nor can Guardiola afford to make it easy for Nottingham Forest to defend a low block. You also need the 1v1 threat out wide.

Haaland, Doku, Savinho, Marmoush, Nunes, Gvardiol, Dias, and Ederson all started on the bench against Plymouth. Dias only came on for an injured Ake, and Haaland was the chosen sub to help secure the win late in the match. That gives you some indication about who's being thought about for this match.

Rico Lewis has not started more than one away match this season, which came against Leyton Orient in the FA Cup. All his remaining starts came in home matches. I cannot see that changing against Nottingham Forest, who can threaten in transition.

One to Watch - Chris Wood

In the away match last season, Chris Wood accumulated 0.94xG himself and missed two big chances. In the home match earlier this season, he accumulated 0.50xG and missed one big chance. With how well Nottingham Forest defends deep, Manchester City cannot afford to let them score a goal, and there is one guy that’s most likely to score it.

Final mention for Elliot Anderson (22), who joined them in the summer after Newcastle was forced to sell through PSR. Excellent midfielder who can operate box-to-box, assist in the buildup, and win back the ball. It was a big miss for them in the match earlier this season.

Final Predictions

Predicted Lineup:

Predicted Score: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City