Manchester City vs Real Madrid Preview

Champions League - Qualifying Round

Although Manchester City have not looked the same this season, and have rightly deserved to get this kind of draw in the qualifying round, there is some hope for the match that has you wondering whether you should be optimistic. The issues are still there, exciting young players have arrived, others are returning from injury, and Real Madrid is struggling to name a backline of first-team players. Your head may tell you it’s Real Madrid in the Champions League, filled with incredible attacking players, but Manchester City has an opportunity here.

Previous Results:

• Manchester City won three of their eight matches in the League phase of the Champions League, drawing twice (Inter, Feyenoord), and losing three (Sporting, Juventus, PSG), qualifying in 22nd place.

• Real Madrid won five of their eight matches in the League phase of the Champions League, losing three matches to Lille, Milan, and Liverpool, qualifying in 11th place.

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City are without Rodri and Oscar Bobb. Nathan Ake, Jeremy Doku, Ederson, and Nico Gonzalez all face late fitness checks.

• Real Madrid are without Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Antonio Rudiger, David Alaba, and Lucas Vazquez.

Interesting Real Madrid Stats:

• Vinicius Junior (7) is the top scorer for Real Madrid in the Champions League so far, ahead of Rodrygo (4) and Mbappe (3). Both Jude Bellingham (3) and Luka Modric have provided three assists.

• Real Madrid have only kept one clean sheet in their eight Champions League matches this season, conceding two or more in four matches.

• In the last four times that the two teams have played each other in the knockout rounds of the Champions League, both sides have progressed twice, and each time the team that progressed went to the Champions League Final.

• Manchester City have not lost a home match against Real Madrid in the Champions League.

I’ve mentioned this before and I’ll continue to highlight it, the team is moving in a better direction in regards to the underlying numbers, but the xGA is not coming down further right now. Getting the defenders all back fit, which seems to be happening, and a proper holding midfielder starting (Nico) and you should see that trend fall after some consistent lineups. We’ve got no problem creating chances, for the most part, it’s being clinical when you know the opposition will probably get some good ones themselves. Against Real Madrid, with the injuries to both teams, there is no doubt both sides will have plenty of chances.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

In the last match, Real Madrid played Atletico and this was the team, finished with a 1-1 draw. Lucas Vazquez picked up an injury so he’ll be out of both legs. Luka Modric was rested on the bench, so I’d imagine Valverde will play RB as Modric comes into midfield against City. The front four are quite clearly capable of winning the match for them. It’s going to be important that one City midfielder is tracking Bellingham when he makes runs into the box.

The ultimate question around Real Madrid is how well they deal without injured players. So if the front line can take enough chances then the pressure won’t be there for the defenders, but should Manchester City manage to control the midfield and pin them back, it’s a completely different group to previous matches when Carvajal, Rudiger, and Nacho were starting for Madrid. Those three all know what they can and can’t get away with in the tournament. Can make it very difficult for forwards. Tchouameni is an excellent midfielder who has stood in at CB, but his concentration and composure are there to be exploited. Whether it’s Ferland Mendy, Fran Garcia, or Valverde playing full-back, those can all be exploited by Manchester City.

Dani Ceballos has managed to fill in for the qualities Toni Kroos provided on the ball (to a degree) but off the ball, he’s there to be exposed with how poor he can be at tracking players in the half-spaces. Whether that’s Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden, De Bruyne, or Savinho moving inside.

Despite coming off injured at the weekend against Leyton Orient, Guardiola was quite coy about Nico playing in this match, and then he trained with the team yesterday. Likely that he’ll start in midfield.

For Manchester City, both Ruben Dias and John Stones played minutes at the weekend so you’d expect that to be the CB pairing unless there are any fitness issues. Manuel Akanji and Josko Gvardiol rested all week, the two I’d expect as FBs on either side. De Bruyne and Foden only came on for 18 minutes and Haaland/Kovacic did not travel.

In the recent history of the Champions League, Manchester City have not lost the home leg of a tie against Real Madrid, drawing a few of them as well as winning. For this match, a two-goal lead is ideal before traveling to the Bernabeu, especially with how the team has struggled to maintain leads this season. Giving you more room when game planning the second leg.

It’s the movement of Marmoush off the ball that makes it difficult to leave him out of the team, knowing how inexperienced the back line is and the midfield of Madrid won’t be as capable physically as we are used to seeing. Atletico Madrid had success in the derby match by getting in behind against Madrid on the break. Whether it’s from the start or off the bench, Marmoush is going to play a key role if Manchester City progress.

Final Predictions

In transition, Real Madrid have Mbappe and Vinicius to immediately pounce, with Rodrygo and Bellingham then following up to support. I don’t think Guardiola will want to leave the team too light with their rest defense so using John Stones inverting to midfield to form a 3-2 where you then rely on your wide players to perform. Savinho on the left side 1v1 isolated for switches from Stones. De Bruyne to float across and attack the space behind the full-backs. Bernardo/Foden to work 2v1s on the right side and open up space inside.

In the second half, you’ve got options to take more control of the match by adding another midfielder (Kovacic), another defender to sure up the backline (Ake), and go after the game with forwards (Marmoush, Doku).

Predicted Lineup:

Predicted Score: Manchester City 3-1 Real Madrid