Manchester City vs Spurs Preview

Premier League GW12

This match feels like an important one, not only it is a team that always causes Manchester City problems, but they also need the win. A loss could take them into the bottom half. After losing four in a row, there has been a wave of positive news in Manchester and this is the opportunity to end the losing streak, pick up a big win, and head to Anfield with the chance to turn the title race back around.

Another look at the league table reminds you just how tight it is, 3rd place Chelsea are only three points ahead of Brentford in 11th. One week you are having a great season and the next week it’s time to question the manager. If it’s not clear already, Manchester City needs more regular scorers.

Previous Results

• Manchester City are on a four-match losing streak across all competitions, losing against Spurs (2-1), Bournemouth (2-1), Sporting CP (4-1), and Brighton (2-1) before the International break. Currently sitting 2nd in the Premier League.

• Spurs lost their last two matches before the International break against Galatasaray (3-2) and Ipswich Town (1-2). Currently sitting 10th in the Premier League.

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City is without Rodri, Oscar Bobb, Mateo Kovacic, and Ruben Dias. John Stones, Jeremy Doku, Matheus Nunes, Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake, Phil Foden, and Jack Grealish expect to return to the match-day squad.

• Spurs are set to be without Rodrigo Bentancur after his suspension was confirmed. Van de Ven, Richarlison, Romero, and Odobert are all ruled out due to injury. Timo Werner and Mikey Moore are currently being assessed.

Interesting Spurs Stats:

• No team has scored more Premier League goals than Spurs (23). They are the only team below 9th with a positive goal difference (+10).

• In the Premier League this season, Spurs have the lowest percentage of goalkeeper passes launched (6.4%) and goal kicks launched (3.3%).

• Only Manchester City (72) has had more shots on target than Spurs (67) this season.

Coming into this match against Spurs, the team would have had the positive news of those returning from injury, Rodri coming to visit with the Ballon d’Or, and the contract extension of Guardiola. Before kick-off, Rodri is set to walk out with the award, along with the club setting up a banner for him. We should see a positive reaction in their performance, for sure, but whether that translates to a result is another matter.

If you take the xG and xGA numbers across all of the matches this season, with each point as a rolling average of the previous eight matches, you get a noticeable trend lately alongside the four defeats.

Mateo Kovacic has been ruled through an injury for a month, which is much as it is not ideal, it may be a blessing in disguise that forces Guardiola to try something else. Whether that is another player like Gundogan or tweaking the system. What’s not ideal is having one less player to handle the rotation, which even if Gundogan does a great job, he cannot do that job every three days.

Ruben Dias is not back yet but is close, that’ll be important for the team when he does. Meanwhile, Stones, Akanji, and Ake have all trained. The first two are further ahead than Ake so I imagine they’ll be involved whilst he won’t. Having an organized and consistent back four will go a long way to helping the team's performance.

Away from the match itself, Guardiola made several comments about international football in his press conference, building on what he’s mentioned in other ones. You absolutely cannot go away if you are not fit. You absolutely cannot go away fit and come back injured. Those were the messages to the players. Something to watch in the next break (March), who goes and who stays.

I thought this was quite an interesting quote from Guardiola, something I’m pretty confident about is that Oscar Bobb was due to his breakout season before the injury. The Palace (A) match last season was a good example of how well he and Rico Lewis counter-pressed together.

Spurs are missing both VDV and Romero, their first-choice CB pairing. Obviously, the standout quality for VDV is in recovery against Haaland but Romero just as important when it comes to their buildup. An excellent passer missing for them and that will likely mean Dragusin and Davies.

Final Predictions

Ones to Watch: 

Dejan Kulusevski has moved from a winger into midfield and drawn some comparisons from the media between him and De Bruyne. Being a powerful runner and carrier centrally, he’s exactly the type of player that would cause Kovacic some problems. If we are going to lose the match it’ll come from those moments, losing the ball in midfield and not catching Kulusevski in transition.

Erling Haaland is the one for me, knowing that despite all the positivity around the club of late after a tough period of four losses. We still need a win to change that and nothing lifts the team on the pitch and fans in the ground quite like a goal. They need Erling Haaland to be burying chances tonight.

Predicted Lineup:

Predicted Score: Manchester City 3 - 1 Spurs

In the meantime, if you are looking for more Manchester City content then you can check out these two deep dives. First looking at what Hugo Viana needs to get done when takes over in the summer. Second, looking at possible successors to Kyle Walker.

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