Manchester United 0-0 Manchester City Review

Premier League GW31

Plenty was riding on the result of this match aside from it being a derby; three points for Manchester City are important in the race for the Champions League, and United are desperate to find consistent form under Amorim. So we saw that play out with two teams’ setup to not lose the match, be conservative, and players not prepared to take enough risk in the final third.

Notable Stats:

• This was the first time Kevin De Bruyne had failed to create a single chance in a Premier League game that he had played the full 90 minutes in since April 2018 against West Ham. 

• No Manchester City player won more duels in this match than Bernardo Silva (12). The third most by a Premier League player this weekend, behind Casemiro (13) and Mikel Merino (15).

• Casemiro made 11 tackles in the Manchester Derby, the most a midfielder has made in a Premier League game against Man City since Pep Guardiola took charge. It's also the most any Manchester United player has made in a PL match since Patrice Evra vs. Pompey in 2008.

• Bruno Fernandes has now created more chances than any other player in the Premier League this season (75).

• Phil Foden has now failed to score or assist in his last seven Premier League appearances.

Game Stats:

Manchester United 0-0 Manchester City

• xG: 1.06 -0.63

• xThreat: 1.31 - 0.88

• Possession: 41.7% - 58.3%

• Field Tilt: 48.6% - 51.4%

• Penalty Box Shots: 8 - 4

• Deep Entries: 14 - 3

• PPDA: 11.6 - 9.0

• High Turnovers: 5 - 6

Kevin De Bruyne (1,790) has now surpassed his minutes total for the entirety of the 23/24 season (1,750). Omar Marmoush completes back-to-back full 90s for the first time in his City career. Savinho's run of starting seven consecutive Premier League matches comes to an end. Bernardo - Gundogan - Kovacic started their 9th match together this season (5W 2D 2L).

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Starting lineups were United, which was probably entirely predictable, but Guardiola made some big calls. As we’ll get into, I think with how he plays certain stadiums along with the Forest (A) struggles in breaking down a low block you know is coming, it makes some sense.

Starting O’Reilly was great to see, a big moment that is deserved, and allowed them to keep together Dias-Gvardiol as the CB partnership. Kovacic, instead of Nico Gonzalez was the one I can’t explain much beyond him not doing well to break down Forest a couple of weeks ago. But what you lose off the ball outweighs that risk IMO and it was at the heart of many United attacks.

Guardiola spoke after the match about needing the players to 'move less'. That they played with two strikers (Foden/Marmoush), supported with De Bruyne/Gundogan close to finding them, and 'lots of process' with Bernardo and Kovacic. They created space between the lines, but then failed to find the passes into the space enough. Not finding the decisive pass.

Final Third Entries > 76
Box Entries > 5

Especially coming from the Nottingham Forest (A) match where they, like United, prioritised the low block. Savinho/Doku in that match constantly faced 2v1s. Nunes/Nico struggled to find the quick and clean action in the middle to break through that block. That didn't work. I agree with the plan to find the players in the pockets who can then find the likes of Foden/Marmoush in the box. To make that plan work, you need passers outside the block that 'move less', that don't look to carry, take another touch, move around, and slow it down.

This is just one of many examples in this match. Foden makes the run as De Bruyne steps into space left, Bernardo then doesn't play the pass into half-space. Nunes is ready for the first time pass off KDB/to run behind, but the team doesn't increase the tempo, doesn't take the risk, and moves it around the block.

This is an example shortly after on the LHS where Gvardiol does punch the pass between the lines into Marmoush, who could have played the pass for O'Reilly running in behind, could have turned to drive at the United backline, but instead passes back outside the block to Gundogan.

Bernardo Silva led the team for duels won (12), tackles won (3), blocks (3), and ball recoveries (7). Off-the-ball work from him shouldn't be up for debate. Having him as the deeper midfielder expected to find the passes between lines into the block is not the best use of him. If starting, pulling opposition players around to create space for others is where he should be used.

Another game where I thought the Gvardiol- Dias pairing continued to perform well, whether it's on the ball or their box defending. The same extends to O'Reilly and Nunes, who had good performances; the team didn't utilise their movement out wide well enough, but both were willing.

These comments have been spoken a lot lately, and Guardiola could have phrased it better, but cutting off 'in composure' changes the point he is making as I've seen people do when quoting it.

As Guardiola mentions, the physical qualities of Nunes suit the right-back role incredibly well for the way Manchester City play. He can run in behind, provide over/underlapping runs, and come inside. Excellent ball carrier. It's how he's handled 1v1 duels, made poor passes, and been overly aggressive to try to correct a mistake that's been the issue for him in games at RB. This season, one of the biggest issues the team has had at right-back, especially Kyle Walker in the first half of the season, was switching off when the ball comes to the far post. Nunes defended these very well against United.

My guess behind the selection of Mateo Kovacic instead of Nico Gonzalez would have been about making the incisive passes against a low block that we saw him not do well when playing Nottingham Forest (A) earlier this season.

Too many of these situations in the game yesterday, front three apply pressure to shift the ball wide, backline able to move across well, O'Reilly/Nunes quick to jump up, but the midfield did not. Whether it's not knowing who to cover or not being able to cover the ground. Far bigger problem on the LHS (Gundogan/Kovacic) than it was on the RHS.

Jeremy Doku (57’) comes on for Phil Foden in the second half, giving them an avenue to attack the left side, but their decision-making on the ball to progress it into Doku let the team down and made it easy for United to move back into shape, ready to defend. Lewis and Grealish (74’) come on for O’Reilly and Gundogan towards the end of the second half. The former to cover for a tiring Nico O’Reilly as Guardiola mentioned post-match, the latter to help support that progression into Jeremy Doku and attack the left side. However, he just lost the ball trying to win fouls and couldn’t give the team an outlet.

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Moving Forward

It’s safe to say, for several valid reasons the confidence people had in how the team would finish this season has taken a hit after drawing against Manchester United. When you look at the fixtures for us and those we’re competing with, I’m more optimistic of finishing above 5th place, but it’s going to be tough and come right down to the final day.

Here is a quick thread I did comparing Nico Gonzalez, Bernardo Silva, Mateo Kovacic, and Ilkay Gündoğan when it comes to ball recoveries and the actions afterward. With the help of data sourced by Pranav.

If you haven’t already, I’d recommend checking out a match when Juma Bah is playing. I’m looking forward to seeing how the underlying numbers shift compared to his time at Valladolid earlier this season. It's a tiny sample size at the moment but a very promising young player the club picked up in January.

Per 90, his interceptions are up 1.25 > 3.13, tackles up 1.04 > 2.5, dribblers tackled 0.31 > 1.25, and ball recoveries up 3.65 > 5.94.

Aerial duels are the standout strength everyone has highlighted. 3.23 (70.5%) won per 90 up to 3.75 (70.6%).

Next up for Manchester City is Crystal Palace on the 12th of April at 12:30 (GMT), which is the first match of the weekend, and a win will help put pressure on the other teams competing for the CL spots later in the day.

If you’re looking for more content on the match, then I’d check out this excellent piece by Rahul Madhavan. 👇

If you’re looking for a podcast, then this one by the 9320 managed to find the balance between what’s realistic to expect this season and the honest criticism for the performance.