New Recruit: İlkay Gündoğan

Manchester City has secured the return of Ilkay Gundogan back from Barcelona which as well as being great news for the fans, provides the squad the short-term cover it needs in midfield as an inevitable revamp next summer awaits. Gundogan is a winner, leader, exceptionally talented midfielder, and beloved by the City dressing room. Knows the system inside out, as plug and play as it gets. Is there anything to be concerned about?

After dealing with injury on arrival in Manchester that persisted throughout his first season, Gundogan became a consistent starter for the team for several years. Maintaining a steady output of goal contributions from midfield. In his last four league seasons (2020 - 2024) Gundogan has provided at least 12 G+A in each one.

Manchester City | Premier League 18/19

The firs point is to touch on his time playing as a defensive midfielder for City, in the absence of an injured Fernandinho. Ilkay gundogan was excellent and key to City winning the Premier League title that year. Not just in any games, he did it during the title run-in going head-to-head with Liverpool to the end.

Here is his heat map from that season, you’ll notice just how heavily he was involved in City’s half as part of the buildup.

This is a set of graphs from Total Football Analysis that compared the number sixes in the Premier League that season to Gundogan. Clearly he stood up to the task in the underlying numbers as well as the end result, winning the Premier League.

That being said, several years have passed. Gundogan is now 33 and doesn’t have the same physical strengths he had at 27. Mateo Kovacic has proven adept in the position, albeit only playing one match there, and I think it’s more likely a pairing of those two is what will be used in place of Rodri, rather than a lone option.

Manchester City | Premier League 20/21

2,029 minutes, 13 goals, 2 assists

For this Premier League season, Gundogan hit a career-best and finished with the 9th most goals (13), and 5th most non-penalty goals (12). This was false nine Manchester City, it was the first time we realized how good Gundogan was in front of the goal, not only with his finishing but his movement around the box.

Manchester City | Premier League 21/22

1,857 minutes, 8 goals, 4 assists

This was another season that saw City head-to-head with Liverpool but for Ilkay Gundogan it was a slight step backward after last season. He only started 20 Premier League games and he spoke about his frustration at the end of the season.

He did however play a crucial role off the bench to win Manchester City the Premier League title against Aston Villa on the last day. Even when he’s not the most important player in the team he can still provide in the moments the team needed it.

Manchester City | Premier League 22/23

2,353 minutes, 8 goals, 4 assists

After that incredible moment last season, Gundogan stepped forward as captain of the team and led them to win The Treble. Winning the Champions League in the country he was born. Crucial for the team as a leader, going through a tough period until the new year chasing Arsenal, and delivering on the pitch with his performances. The FA Cup final, Everton (A), Leeds United (H) and plenty more.

Barcelona | La Liga 23/24

2,994 minutes, 5 goals, 9 assists

Last season in La Liga Ilkay Gundogan was 5th for assists (9), 2nd for expected assists (9.8), 1st for key passes (97), 8th for progressive passes (224), provided the 5th most through balls (16), took the most number of corner kicks (140), and had the 2nd most shot-creating actions (166). Fair to say he was quite involved.

He played the most minutes in La Liga for Barcelona that season, starting 33 matches. It was also the most league minutes he’s played in a single season, across his entire career. It’s reasonable to expect physical decline as any player gets older but make no mistake, Ilkay Gundogan is still near his best in most other facets of his game. With plenty of other quality players ahead of him in the squad, he won’t be run into the ground with heavy minutes.

Here are his heat maps across the last four seasons, the last one being in Barcelona. Certainly at Manchester City Gundogan operated heavily in the left half-space as a number eight. Became more involved across the pitch and deeper in the buildup during The Treble winning season as City utilized the box midfield.

If you want to understand how important Gundogan was for Manchester City across the first three of four Premier League titles in a row, check out this episode of The Hub below.

Fit Into the Team

Across both the wing and midfield positions, Manchester City should be able to rotate them all incredibly well. To the extent that you can keep all of these players quite fresh even when the fixture list does pile up. In the Champions League you can play Rodri-Gundogan-Foden as your midfield three, at the weekend in the Premier League you can play Kovacic-Bernardo-De Bruyne as your midfield three. Arsenal absolutely cannot match that. Given the ages of some of those players, rotating them will be as beneficial to them as it is to the team.

Going back to the weekend against Chelsea (A), looking at the role De Bruyne was playing by pulling out to the flank in the buildup, that is a role Gundogan would be excellent at.

Moving back to the minutes discussion, Blue City Brain wrote an excellent post about this point down below. Previewing the minutes for the coming season. Matheus Nunes is the clear loser from this transfer. For James McAtee and Nico O’reilly who have lower expectations, both should be able to pick up the minute totals they’re looking for.

To get Gundogan on a free move, provided it's late in the window and City do not fancy bringing in a long-term big fee solution yet. On a 1+1 year contract. It's a great deal short term.

Then you add his intelligence, relationship with the players, solutions he can provide the team, and the relationship he has with the fan base.

He won't playing the same number of minutes as 22/23 (3,845) but he'll still have an impact on the minutes other midfielders could get this season. Matheus Nunes is the clear casualty of this.

We'll likely rotate our players more this season, to be fresher come the run-in. Guardiola has so many players now that are completely trusted by him. Shouldn't need to be playing any of them well over 4,000 minutes for example.

There’ll be games for Nico O'Reilly to get 500 minutes and James McAtee to get 1,000 minutes but there will not be space for Nunes to step forward this season to 2,000+ role. Expect outgoings to follow before the window shuts.

Whether he’s in the squad or not for the match against Ipswich Town on Saturday, the unveiling of Gundogan in front of a full stadium is going to be one special moment.

LAST WORD👋

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