Newcastle United vs Manchester City Preview

Premier League GW6

The next Premier League match after playing a title contender is always crucial. If you lost or drew, then it’s about regaining momentum. If you win, don’t waste the opportunity by losing the following weekend. Manchester City travel to Newcastle for a game that has in recent times been one every neutral should watch. 2-3 win for City last season. 3-3 draw before that.

Newcastle has been far from the high-pressing, aggressive, and compact team we saw in those two seasons. There is space for City to exploit but Newcastle are a resilient team that can hurt them should City not take their chances early on.

City is back to winning after their mid-week game against Watford and after Newcastle has a favorable run of games. Erling Haaland is on incredible goal-scoring form but we are starting to see other players chip in. Top of the Premier League after five matches, leading by a point. Bratislava away on Tuesday night.

Previous Results

• Manchester City are currently top of the Premier League table with 13 points. Winning four of their five matches, drawing against Arsenal (H) 2-2 in their last match.

• Newcastle United are currently 6th in the Premier League table with 10 points. In the Premier League, they have beaten Southampton (H) 1-0, Spurs (H) 2-1, and Wolves (A) 1-2. Drew against Bournemouth (A) 1-1. Lost to Fulham (A) 3-1.

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City are without Nathan Ake, Oscar Bobb, and Rodri. Kevin De Bruyne is expected to be out but this has not yet been confirmed.

• Newcastle United are without Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, Callum Wilson, and Lewis Miley.

Interesting Newcastle Stats:

• Only Bournemouth (36), Brentford (36), and Southampton (32) have conceded more shots on target than Newcastle United (29) in the Premier League this season.

• Newcastle United (6) have made the joint most errors leading to a shot on goal in the Premier League this season: the third most clearances (127) and blocks (72) made.

Newcastle United Setup

Newcastle has picked up some good results but I think a few are misleading. Away from how well they’ve performed this season. Exposing a common flaw in how Tottenham built and left their CBs with large spaces to cover in transition doesn’t mean Spurs did not have more than enough chances to win the game comfortably.

It’s a small sample size but the numbers are not encouraging. 15th in the league for expected goals against (8.7) and 11th for expected goals (6.7). 18th for long pass completion (47.3%). 18th for shots conceded (89). One of the big issues they have is space between the back line and midfield line. Defenders that are not comfortable pushing up to chase attackers and a midfield three that are very aggressive in pushing up.

Bruno Guimaraes for example is best suited to playing as a left-side eight that can drop into the buildup. He can do a good job as a six but his instinct is not to remain in his position. If he moved to Manchester City that’s the first thing Guardiola would have taught him. It’s what Mateo Kovacic is learning right now and has improved on over the summer. It’s why Nico O’Reilly isn’t ready just yet for more minutes.

When Fulham moved down the flank Newcastle was not closing off the pass inside. You think about Savinho or Grealish in those spaces, it’s quite easy for them to pick out Gundogan/Bernardo/Foden as well as drive into that space themselves.

This is the space between the lines Newcastle gave to Fulham, which they absolutely cannot do against City unless they want to lose quite quickly. Imagine Foden in those pockets, you’ll soon have Haaland through on goal.

Newcastle have pressed teams high and aggressively in previous matches, something that Brentford tried to do against Manchester City. The thing is Newcastle has two CBs who are not comfortable following their man as they drop so I think City can have some success playing into Haaland directly for the buildup and getting in behind.

With all that being said, Newcastle does have some personnel changes they could make to solve problems. Sandro Tonali has struggled to get into the team consistently. He would help to alleviate the problems they have in midfield, covering the back line better. But it wouldn’t solve it completely unless they make changes to the back line. Schar and Burn will not follow Foden/De Bruyne into the space between the lines. I’m not convinced they would follow Haaland either when dropping deep or in the buildup. That’s the space City must expose on Saturday.

For more on Newcastle this season, I’d recommend this thread from Euro Expert on their last match against Fulham. 👇

Manchester City Setup 

This will be our first proper match without Rodri after he picked up a long-term injury. We’ve seen the solution early in the season for how Guardiola will rest him but what about over a whole season?

What about when you play against the big sides that will be physical, and go long to win aerial duels/second balls?

What’s going to be interesting to see play out is how Newcastle deal with the wide threats City have, regardless of which two wingers start. Will Newcastle want to double up on each of them, perhaps Barnes comes back to support Kelly or Willock will move across. I doubt you’ll see Burn/Schar leave Haaland alone to help defend out wide.

In terms of the team selected, there are a few different ways Guardiola can go. Especially after Rodri picked up an injury. If he feels that Walker needs to start given the 1v1 threats Newcastle has, and the pace in behind, then I can see Gvardiol inverting into midfield just like he did against Arsenal. He may want to start Stones and invert him into midfield next to a number six, bringing back a box midfield. Rico Lewis has been excellent this season and given the amount of space Newcastle has given teams between the lines, I think he’s the best player to exploit that.

It also wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the same lineup that started against Arsenal, with Kovacic in for Rodri. City were having a lot of success with that setup, pulling the Arsenal midfield around and opening up space for the two wingers to come inside. De Bruyne’s fitness is still unconfirmed and Guardiola has been very slow to include Foden in the team.

On Tuesday City will play against Bratislava (A) in the Champions League. They’ll be expected to win but it’s also a chance to introduce some rotation as well.

Final Predictions

Ones to Watch:

Manchester City has a right winger who could lock down the spot similar to Riyad Mahrez by the time the season is finished. Intelligent decision-making, glides across the pitch with the ball at his feet and can threaten in several ways. Beating his man to the byline and coming inside to cross. Savinho will either take advantage of being left 1v1 or force Newcastle to give another player space instead.

Newcastle have a few different players to be wary of but it’s Harvey Barnes who is their top scorer in the Premier League (3). Right-footed who will cut inside from the left wing. He’s in a good patch of form right now overperforming his xG (+1.4) and goes under the radar given how well Gordon and Isak performed last season. Barnes struggled with injuries.

Predicted Lineup:

Predicted Score: Newcastle United 1 - 3 Manchester City

Other

This might not be for everyone but there is a mixture of good insight into the video. The process Gvardiol goes through to prepare for matches, some of the key points Guardiola has taught him as well as his general approach to defending 1v1.

LAST WORD👋

How am I doing?

I’d love to hear more from readers and I’m always looking for feedback. How am I doing with Sky Blue Times? Is there anything you’d like to see more or less of? Which aspects of the newsletter and our content do you enjoy the most?

Hit the reply and say hello - I’d love to hear from you!

Thank you,

Bailey