Nottingham Forest 0-2 Manchester City Review

FA Cup Semi-Final

This was a huge moment for the club in a difficult season, reaching three consecutive FA Cup Finals goes to show the quality in the team despite not seeing it consistently of late. As we come towards the end of the season, the team is beginning to find its structure, identity, and confidence. All whilst seeing academy players like O’Reilly and Lewis play an important role.

MOTM: MATEO KOVACIC

Notable Stats:

• Nico O'Reilly has played the most minutes (386) for Manchester City in the FA Cup and has the most goal contributions (5).

• With today's opening goal, Rico Lewis (20y 157d) became the youngest player to score for Manchester City at Wembley since Steve MacKenzie in May 1981 (19y 172d in the FA Cup final v Tottenham).

• Nottingham Forest's Zach Abbott (18y 349d) is the youngest player to start an FA Cup game at Wembley since Marcus Rashford (18y 203d) for Manchester United in the 2016 final (v Crystal Palace).

• By half-time, City had dominated with 76.2% possession. Goalkeeper Stefan Ortega had completed 23 passes – more than any Forest player – while Nuno Espírito Santo’s side had failed to register a single shot, on or off target, and had managed just one touch inside the City penalty area.

• Josko Gvardiol (6) has now equalled the record of goals scored in a single season by a Manchester City defender, across all competitions. Tied with Steve Howey (00/01). He's also the only Manchester City defender to have scored 5 goals in two separate seasons for the club since 1987. This is the first season under Pep Guardiola in which two defenders have scored five goals across all competitions.

Game Stats:

Nottingham Forest 0-2 Manchester City

• xG: 1.46 - 2.01

• xThreat: 1.17 - 1.35

• Possession: 33.5% - 66.5%

• Field Tilt: 25.0% - 75.0%

• Penalty Box Shots: 8 - 10

• Deep Entries: 8 - 17

• PPDA: 16.5 - 9.9

• High Turnovers: 3 - 2

Rico Lewis (2,988) is now one match away from crossing 3,000 minutes played for the club this season, across all competitions. That's nearly double his minutes from 23/24 (1,606). So far, only Josko Gvardiol (4,063), Erling Haaland (3,467), and Bernardo (3,454) have managed that feat this season. Under Pep Guardiola, the only other U20 to play more minutes for the team in a single season is Phil Foden (3,378) during 20/21.

Josko Gvardiol (4,063) is the first Manchester City player to pass 4,000 minutes across all competitions this season. Nico O'Reilly (1,078) has now played over 1,000 minutes this season. Rico Lewis scored his first FA Cup goal. Matheus Nunes (2,410) has now played over 1,000 minutes more than he did during the entire 23/24 season (1,360).

The back four combination with the most clean sheets (4) for Manchester City this season is O'Reilly - Gvardiol - Dias - Nunes.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Here is how the two teams lined up for the match, with what looked like the same setup keeping together the backline, but introducing a few others. Savinho for McAtee, Jack Grealish for De Bruyne, and Rico Lewis for Gundogan. Nottingham Forest had a few injuries and opted for a back four rather than what worked in the previous match between the two teams.

Quite a fluid team from the first minute, as the full-backs provided the width and were aggressive, pushing up. Jack Grealish and Rico Lewis are looking to move around the middle to pull Dominguez/Danilo with them and open up space. Savinho dropping into space to collect. Bernardo and Kovacic are dropping between the two CBs. Nottingham Forest players looked lost on who to press.

From the beginning, you could see the setup Manchester City were using, a continuation of the 4-2-2-2 during this recent unbeaten run, and the full-backs providing the width. Congesting the central spaces for the counter press and passing options. Kovacic and Bernardo are in deeper positions, which suited them better. Nottingham Forest had lots of success in the previous match because of how well they could defend wide areas. In this match, it was all about defending central space between the lines.

R. Lewis 2' 1-0  

Mateo Kovacic carries past MGW, passing through two Forest players to Rico Lewis on the edge of the box. Good first touch, turns, and gets the shot off quickly into the bottom left corner. The last little detail was noticing how Nunes drops back as soon as he sees Kovacic drive forward.

Scoring early was crucial, it immediately rips up the game plan that Nottingham Forest had, and usually they win games by scoring first themselves, then managing out the game. Especially in a cup semi-final, Forest had to open up to win the game.

As anyone would expect, Nuno rolled the dice by bringing on Anthony Elanga at half-time, and you immediately saw the impact he could have after Forest jumped on a loose ball. Elanga running through the middle just hits a wide a great chance to equalize. More players can run behind for Forest, with Hudson-Odoi and Elanga able to attack the spaces left out wide as both City full-backs push up.

J. Gvardiol 51' 2-0 

Although not capitalized on enough, earlier in the season, Phil Foden was providing plenty of crosses from corners whipped into the 6-yard box. Marmoush is excellent at these as well. The space left on the edge of the box, players unmarked, has been a common theme this season. Prioritizing defending zones. Mateo Kovacic has a few goals from that space, but the central defenders who are left to get good momentum running into the box haven't scored enough. This goal is a perfect example of that.

Ilkay Gundogan (71’) came on later in the second half, and this was well timed. The moment where Forest were starting to build some momentum with the two shots from Gibbs-White, and Gundogan helped to slow down the tempo. Helping the team keep the ball around the final third, but not forcing passes into the box.

Guardiola then got more subs correct with Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku (81’) coming on for the final ten minutes. Foden is being more cautious than Savinho with the ball. Jeremy Doku is giving the team a clear outlet to progress down the left side and win fouls.

This was one of the best performances I’ve seen from Mateo Kovacic in a Manchester City shirt. Culmination of many mistakes and mixed games throughout this season when playing in the six role. The setup helped focus all his efforts defensively in the middle. His carrying ability is best used in central spaces. Easy to see the value in keeping him for next season.

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Moving Forward

That win takes Manchester City into the FA Cup Final for the third successive year, an incredible achievement, and a trophy they’ll hope to win after failing last season. It’s the first of the three that isn’t a derby after Crystal Palace pulled off a brilliant performance to defeat Aston Villa. That match should be a sharp reminder of how these games can go. Not that Manchester City need reminding.

If you want to catch up on the last match against Crystal Palace, check out the article linked below. 👇

Rico Lewis showed in this match that he’s a midfielder and is more than capable. It’s great to have him as an emergency right-back in the squad, but next season he needs to be picking up most of his minutes in midfield. The right one to take over from one of the older players departing in a depth role.

It will be interesting to see how Erling Haaland fits into this setup. I don’t think he’s going to be rushed back, even though he’s training again. The initial projections had him out until the Wolves (H) match. We’re probably looking at the Southampton (A) game for some brief minutes instead.

Next up for Manchester City is Wolves (H) on Friday, the 2nd of May at 20:00 (UK). They have won six consecutive matches, so it won’t be an easy win by any stretch. It may work in City's favor that Wolves are comfortably safe from relegation now and not in any fight for Europe. Cunha is having an excellent season, but during the winning run, it’s Andre (CM) and Agbadou (CB) who have impressed me the most. A tough physical battle awaits.