Real Madrid vs Manchester City Agg:6-3 Review

Champions League Qualifying Round

Ahead of the match against Liverpool, I wanted to do something a little bit different when looking back across both legs against Real Madrid. Zoom out more and dive into the impact of this moving forward. Rather than going through each specific action in the match.

Manchester City got what they deserved, finishing so low in the table, that they drew Real Madrid in the qualifying round. Had it been Bayern Munich, in hindsight, maybe it would have been a different story for this round. But even then, the demand for games would have been tough on the squad.

We did see some bright sparks from the new signings and got further confirmation of which players are likely to leave or take a back seat role, and the same issues from this season appeared.

1st Leg Stats:

Manchester City 2-3 Real Madrid

• xG: 1.71 - 3.24

• xThreat: 1.53 - 1.08

• Possession: 53.9% - 46.1%

• Field Tilt: 46.7% - 53.3%

• Penalty Box Shots: 8 - 15

• Deep Entries: 9 - 12

• PPDA: 10.9 - 16.6

• High Turnovers: 2 - 7

As we’ll get into later, the starting setup from Guardiola for this match was spot on but perhaps needed one or two different personnel. Then as the second half came around, the injured players came off, and you saw a drop-off that Madrid capitalized on. Along with some fortune and poor individual errors.

2nd Leg Stats:

Real Madrid 3-1 Manchester City

• xG: 1.66 - 1.20

• xThreat: 1.52 - 0.82

• Possession: 48.3% - 51.7%

• Field Tilt: 35.1% - 64.9%

• Penalty Box Shots: 9 - 3

• Deep Entries: 14 - 10

• PPDA: 18.4 - 12.1

• High Turnovers: 3 - 3

The injury to Haaland before kick-off, the starting setup, poor mistakes for the goal, and the injury to Stones killed this tie within ten minutes of the match starting. There were bright moments from the new signings and an improved approach from Real Madrid on/off the ball. Although it was clear from the substitutions made in the second half Guardiola already accepted their fate.

xGA hovering around 1.50 per game is a positive relative to the period of games from October to November but it’s got to come down further as Manchester City heads into the final run of games. Without the tough fixtures from this month, there are plenty of opportunities to do that. Depending on what they have to play for in the final months. Crystal Palace (H), Everton (A), Wolves (H), Southampton (A), Fulham (A), Leicester City (H) could not have much to play for by the time they play Manchester City.

Last season Manchester City had five defenders play 3,000+ minutes (Gvardiol, Dias, Walker, Akanji, Ake). This season, including the injury to Akanji, only Josko Gvardiol has passed the 3,000 mark and no other defender is on pace to join him.

Savinho (2,121) has already surpassed the minutes total of Jack Grealish from last season (2,080) and is one match away from overtaking Jeremy Doku (2,172) total from 23/24 with at least 14 more matches to play.

Manchester City has only had one back-four combination start five or more matches this season (Gvardiol - Dias - Akanji - Lewis). The last start came against Southampton in October 2024. They also started against United (CS), Chelsea (A), Ipswich (H), West Ham (A), Inter (CL), and Fulham (H).

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

1st Leg: Manchester City 2-3 Real Madrid

Despite a couple of poor decisions on the ball, for the most part, Manchester City was set up well by Guardiola for the first half. Driven by the struggles of this season and need to manage the threat Real Madrid posed in transition. They’d shift into a 2-3 with John Stones as the single pivot, found quite easily despite the attempt of Madrid to press. The struggle then came to progress the ball into the box consistently.

Nico Gonzalez wasn’t fit to start. It was the first game back for Doku from injury so he wasn’t going to start. Jack Grealish was a surprise inclusion that although looked good for the small minutes he played, Foden came on to threaten more, eventually winning the penalty. When you work through the bench, in the context of this season, there are so few genuine options that could have started other than Marmoush.

De Bruyne looked to only have one half in him and even then you could see the decline physically catching up with him in a match like this. Which gives you an idea about his future. It wasn’t just him, as along with Bernardo Silva, you saw the team struggle to maintain a high press for ninety minutes. The subs by Guardiola (84’) for De Bruyne came far too late.

Akanji came off at half-time picking up an injury he’d later get surgery for. Otherwis,e I doubt Rico Lewis comes on. He did well up against Vinicius but it’s not about winning most of the battles, as only one is enough to undo you. Especially when Kovacic is providing the pass in behind for him. He wouldn’t have come on if it wasn’t for Ake being limited to 60 minutes, returning from injury, which pulled John Stones into the backline for the rest of the match. Removing the player City could consistently find in the buildup.

All of those changes fed into Real Madrid turning up the pressure in the final twenty minutes of the second half and pushing for the winner. Which was helped by some poor individual mistakes, normal for this season, but the injuries cleared the pathway for them to do it.

2nd Leg: Real Madrid 3-1 Manchester City

Real Madrid had a big boost with the return of Rudiger to their backline which then allowed them to play Ceballos and Tchouameni in a double pivot. Bellingham was more free in front, supporting the front line of Vinicius, Mbappe, and Rodrygo. Manchester City on the other hand had a late fitness issue with Haaland, and Akanji was out injured after picking it up in the first leg.

Madrid was well disciplined in their mid-block, Bellingham becoming the LM and Rodrygo the RM as they set up in a 4-4-2 out of possession. They’d pounce on mistakes, loose touches, and passes. But they weren’t looking to press high, but rather eliminate the gaps for City to progress.

Manchester City had Savinho/Marmoush playing as an inside forward, Foden came inside as well as Bernardo Silva which meant there was an overload in midfield but a lack of width. Madrid was set up to prevent progression, which they did well, but once City got through they had the physicality and athleticism to recover well.

The high press from City was undone by the switches of play by Madrid, Tchouameni in particular, who could find a pocket of space and then shift it out to the flank. Valverde was excellent at finding the French midfielder from his spot at RB. Then they would do the opposite to the narrow approach of City and attack out wide. Make the pitch big and stretch the older/tired legs of their opposition.

The opening goal comes from no pressure on the ball by the City players, leaving the Madrid defender to pick out the run of Mbappe in behind. The backline does not drop. Helped by Dias misjudging the ball, and Ederson caught in no man’s land, Madrid scored first and crushed the hope Manchester City had of trying to manage the first half.

Real Madrid continued to try to play forward quickly to catch out the high line of City. Using the buildup, switched out wide, and then fired balls in behind. Bellingham was excellent at this as well as he drifts to the wide areas, supports the buildup, and wriggles out of pressure to switch it wide.

Tactically Manchester City was well-beaten, unable to coordinate well enough to press as a team, shift across, and handle the switches of Madrid. Let alone manage when to drop as a back line. Within the performance you saw why Ruben Dias is important for the team, the impact Nico Gonzalez will have in his City career, and some bright sparks from Khusanov to handle such a tough start at the club. But the real change won’t happen until the summer and with a consistent structure being established. You won’t get that with the all injuries.

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Moving Forward

First of all, it’s time to give the January signings consistent starts in the team, and all have impressed relative to their minutes. Nico Gonzalez will start as many games as he’s fit for. Marmoush offers movement and intensity off the ball no other players can compete within the squad. Khusanov brings a recovery pace unmatched in defense. Reis I’d expect to get minutes in the FA Cup and he’ll then slowly begin to pick up some more minutes depending on the injuries.

It has to be said that going out of the CL will be a big benefit to the squad's fitness, which could have struggled tremendously if there were games every three days for much longer. Next season Manchester City needs to be ready for it, but right now, it’s too much to handle.

Champions League qualification and winning an FA Cup should be the target. Looking at the inconsistent competitors for the top four and remaining teams in the FA Cup, both are realistic targets. It’ll go a long way to helping bed in the new signings and building towards the next iteration of Manchester City under Guardiola.

Looking ahead to the summer, here is the squad stripped down to the players who'll be unmovable and/or key pieces moving forward into the rebuilt Manchester City. I don't think the plan was for Ederson to stay much longer after the proposed move to Saudi in the summer, and his performances throughout the season, along with his injuries, only make it more important that a new keeper is brought in. Difficult position to identify but Lucas Chevalier and Joan Garcia would be top of my list.

A new RB is essential this summer, a player that can handle 3,000+ minutes, offer a variety of solutions instead of being limited to one role/function, and come with an adequate amount of experience. That's why the links to Cambiaso make perfect sense. Khusanov has the potential to be a starter next season, Reis a rotation/depth option, and Dias you'd hope to see return to his usual level of minutes. That leaves you with some tough decisions to make on Akanji, Ake, and Stones. None are easy to move on, but will have to for another to arrive. I'm a fan of Ryan Flamingo and Nico Schlotterbeck. Stephen Mfuni (17) and Kaden Braithwaite (17) coming through the CFA. Juma Bah (18) is on loan at RC Lens this season and is likely to be needing another loan before integrating to the first team. You could keep Ake as your rotational LB provided he's not needed to play CB. You can move Callum Doyle into the first team, coming off loan at Norwich City. No matter how you do it, Gvardiol needs to have a rotation option next season that isn't injury-prone.

Nico Gonzalez is your rotation option for Rodri, as well as knowing that Rodri is back to play 3,000+ minutes is a huge boost. More midfielders are needed. De Bruyne's departing leaves space for another attacking midfielder. Echeverri has the quality to play for the team, but will he adapt physically? O'Reilly should be given the opportunity next season to get a good amount of minutes. Perrone is out on loan, good enough to come in as a depth option in midfield. You'll still need to buy more.

Depending on the role/position you see both Marmoush and Foden playing next season, there is the question of bringing in another forward/winger. By the time we reach the summer Rodri, Dias, and Foden will have two years left on their contract and will be negotiating their biggest City contracts. Part of that happening is clearing off the wage bill for any high earners that are underperforming.

James McAtee will have one year left in the summer, given the minutes and not signing an extension, it seems likely he'll move on. There are buyback options in the summer for James Trafford and Liam Delap. The last point to leave on is homegrown players. Currently, Manchester City have Ake, Carson, Foden, Grealish, Stones and McAtee. That'll factor into the players they recruit in the summer.

What Would You Do in the Summer?