With Arsenal beating Chelsea on Monday night and Liverpool heading over to Everton this evening, Manchester City could have all eyes on them and the pressure turned up to get a result against on Brighton Thursday night.

City played against Brighton last year winning 2-1 in a game that limited them to only 0.8xG. Only four other teams this season have City created that little against (Arsenal, Villa, Real Madrid, Copenhagen). By no means will the game be easy under the lights.

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Starting Point

Notable Injuries:

• For Manchester City, they are set to be with out Erling Haaland through injury. Phil Foden missed training due to illness and could be a doubt.

• For Brighton, they are without Solly March (knee), Mitoma (back) and Jack Hinshelwood (foot). James Milner (thigh), Adam Webster and Tariq Lamptey (muscle) are all due to return but the Thursday game could come too soon for them. Estupinan is a doubt after coming off during their draw with Burnley last week. Enciso, Ferguson and Gilmour are all doubts for the match.

Interesting Stats:

• Manchester City have won 12 of their last 14 matches against Brighton in all competitions. Also winning 12 of their last 15 matches in the Premier League against all opposition.

• Manchester City have scored at least 4 goals in their last 3 matches in the Premier League (Aston Villa 4-1, Crystal Palace 4-2, Luton Town 5-1).

• Brighton have not beaten a top six Premier League team in 2024.

• Only Liverpool (119), Arsenal (73) and Manchester City (92) have allowed fewer shots on target against them in the Premier League this season than Brighton (129).

• Only Manchester City have completed more passes than Brighton in the Premier League this season. Brighton (87.3%) are also second to Manchester City (88.3%) on average pass completion in the Premier League.

Brighton vs Manchester City Preview

Premier League

General Thoughts:

Here is an example of how City could lineup against Brighton, with John Stones training I’ve included him and rested Ruben Dias, who has not been rested since Liverpool (A). Akanji also not rested since United (H). Gvardiol to return for Ake at LB after his rest and Kyle Walker to start. Which will give us two players very capable in recovery. Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish playing on the wings, as mentioned later on, that is the space where City can get at Brighton since they’ll be without Erling Haaland to use.

Here is an idea of how Brighton will lineup against Manchester City and you’ll notice just how different the team looks from the home match, Mitoma and Solly March who caused issues for Kyle Walker. Despite injury set backs Brighton have pushed on this season to get out of their Europa League group and stay mid-table. Mac Allister and Caicedo leaving the summer two important players for them last season.

One player that will be key for Brighton this game is getting Pascal Gross on the ball, earning his spot in the German National Team this season and putting up incredible numbers in the Premier League. Second in the league for assists (10). Completes 47 short passes per 90, Rodri completes 50. Most key passes for Brighton (90) with the second place player being Estupinan (26). Most passes into the final third (207) and into the penalty area (65) for Brighton this season. He’s their key player in all phases of the game.

RDZ is excellent at making tweaks within the buildup structure to get around how teams are pressing Brighton, looking to progress the ball into midfield and get the likes of Mitoma, Pedro and Ferguson space in behind the opposition back line. The two points being that not only will the game shift as the two managers make adjustments quite quickly but also City being prepared to defend forwards running at their back line if their press fails.

Brighton have not quite solved their issue at RB due to injuries and it’s a spot teams can expose. Pushing both their full backs high and wide will give City opportunities like what Jeremy Doku got the last time they played. Cut backs then open up into the box and half space as their defense retreats back to goal.

Erling Haaland will be a miss for Manchester City given how vulnerable Brighton can be in transition and we’ve seen Ederson link up with him for a goal that way before. I’d expect that it’s through the wingers that City will have their joy against Brighton, either to enter the box through Grealish/Doku or open up passes to De Bruyne in the half space.

To stay up to date with outfield players minutes, check out our google sheet here.

Ones to Watch: 

• Manchester City: Jeremy Doku

• Brighton: Pascal Gross

Predicted Lineup: Ederson, Walker, Stones, Akanji, Gvardiol, Rodri, De Bruyne, Bernardo, Doku, Grealish, Alvarez

Predicted Score: Brighton 1 - 3 Manchester City

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