Key Topics:

1. Preview of the squad, where it is at and points to consider

2. Unexpected Changes to the team this season

3. Assess our current squad minutes

4. Identify our holes in the squad

5. Outline positions to buy

This is the first part of our Summer Road map series which will be concluded in the second part, transfer targets and sales.

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1. Preview

This is a two part series in which we work to identify the holes in the team, consider all the issues that have come up and select targets for the coming transfer window. First up is to analyze our squad and season so far.

Framework for Targets - There are a few ways that City have looked at their transfers, here is a framework for sorting the targets you look at. Ask yourself whether they fit into one of these groups.

• Targeted for specific role and position within the team. Fernandiniho was coming towards the end of his career, the club scouted and recruited Rodri. Grealish is another example, identified for a specific role within the team at LW.

• Superstar players that are undeniable. The generational talents you buy first and fit into your team later. Kevin De Bruyne. Haaland. Bellingham (painful).

• Great Deals that you cannot turn down, whether it is the price or availability of the talent, that fit a squad need. One side would be Akanji at a great price, position that we lacked depth in and age profile that was perfect for our squad. Another is Doku, available for a great price, incredible talent and fits the squad need of a winger.

• Long Term Punt that you take on promising talents, regardless of knowing their role in the team or if they get minutes right away. Alvarez is an example of this, exciting talent that remains on loan for another year. He arrived first team ready but initially you won’t know that, the deal though is clearly a great price so you take the risk with the talent.

• Squad Demand when sometimes you need to have another body in the door regardless of if they play as a first team player. Sergio Gomez is an example of this, having enough players in the squad to cover the full back positions.

Important Considerations

• This last summer has seen significant experience leave the team particularly in Gundogan and Mahrez that knew the system inside out. New players have to pick that up. The other side to that is players know exactly what both of those will do on and off the ball, Gvardiol doesn’t have that relationship yet with his team mates. Takes time to build that. Rodri knows exactly when and where KDB will want the ball.

• The Club World Cup takes place at the end of the 2024/25 season, huge tournament when players are at their lowest fitness wise. Unless the squad is able to rotate with depth and quality in the season, the damage will be done before they get there.

• Pep Guardiola prefers to have a small squad, that’s been 22 every year since 2018/19 so don’t expect much different heading into 24/25.

• Pep Guardiola last year on his contract, pending extension or announcement of leaving in summer 2025. We must make sure the squad age profile is in a good place for him or the new manager.

• It is well documented the mistakes made in the past City summer window, believing they were going to sign Jude Bellingham and missing out. Being then late to get a deal for Rice done, groundwork done by Arsenal, led them to Lucas Paqueta. A betting charge ruined that deals progress and left them to buy Nunes. Bernardo Silva and Mahrez had their future in the air for a long time. Gundogan much the same. It was chaotic and not very City like. Don’t expect the same in this summer.

2. Unexpected Season Changes

Important to take stock of changes throughout the season that would influence our transfer choices. We have Kevin De Bruyne making his return as we speak, the panic for more creativity has settle down a lot since the summer.

• Half Turn Phil Foden has flourished in the middle of the pitch with De Bruynes absence. Can expect that to push the club towards moving him there permanently.

• Kevin De Bruyne coming back from injury will relax the concern creatively we have, along with the teams performances without him. Creating chances has not been our main issue this season.

• Oscar Bobb has been getting minutes at important moments, the same minutes Palmer was not getting at the same age. He is trusted by Pep, he is a reality for us.

• Rico Lewis getting more minutes this season and not as a right back, as a midfielder. That is clearly where the club see him playing whilst having the benefit of covering fullback if needed.

• Claudio Echeverri is due to arrive in summer 2025, one of the most promising talents in Argentina and an attacking midfielder.

• Injuries had a big impact on the team this season, even if we have quality versatile players it doesn’t matter if too many of them get injured.

• FFP has to be a consideration competitively in the premier league, why buy from a premier league rival which helps them financially when you can buy from outside the Premier League.

• Form of certain players has to be considered heading into the window, Walker and Dias both struggled in the first half. How much is rotation, minutes played and us missing key players…

3. Assess Our Minutes

Here is a breakdown of all our players by minutes played in the 23/24 season so far, playing 32 games in all competitions, their share of the total.

Main Takeaways

• GK - Exactly where expected with Ederson playing the majority but Ortega still trusted as a back up and cup game option. Ortega will be one to watch in the summer.

• DEF - Stones injury has had a big impact on the set up at the back, he is nowhere near the minutes he had last season. Walker is coming close to his total minutes of all 22/23 already, big increase for him. Rest are largely inline with the previous season. Rico minutes coming mainly as a midfielder, walker playing most of those RB minutes all season.

• MID - Kalvin Phillips expected to leave in the summer so minutes not relevant, Kovacic picking up most of Gundogan minutes and De Bruynes shared around due to his injury. Both of which normally carry heavy minutes through the season. Foden taking a big chunk of those with a step up in minutes this season. Nunes struggled to get a lot of minutes in the team this half.

• WING - Big chunk of minutes free with Mahrez leaving, Doku taking a good portion along with Bobb contributing.

• ST - Alavrez role in midfield early on covered the remaining midfielder minutes left, pushing his total up close to his last seasons whole total. Haaland minutes dropped off slightly due to injury, still has covered most of his total same time last season.

• All of those above is 22 players, one of which in Phillips will leave in the summer and plenty more have question marks on their future, quality or chance to move up the pecking order for minutes.

• Injuries have played a huge part in distorted the minutes and thus the demands on the players. Gone under the radar but the loss of KDB, Gundo and Mahrez is more than just their output, the minutes are a big weight for one player alone as we are seeing several share them.

• DEF, MIF and WING all are lacking an individual. Alvarez back in as a striker with Haaland covers that section just fine. GK more than fine if Ortega stays and extends.

Here is a look at our squad mapped to position, including repeated players if they can perform an additional position.

This certainly gives the impression that we are more than covered, from top to bottom you can shift players around to cover a lot of gaps. However, as we have seen with injuries this season how close that is to falling apart. How quickly you can lose a bench for changing a game, something vital to maintain in a title race.

4. Identify Our Holes

Now let’s take another look at the squad by position, making some changes based on what we have seen this season.

• Ortega has been excellent as a back up keeper, if he moves on then that becomes an issue. Clearly talented enough to play first team elsewhere.

• Rico Lewis is clearly set to be a Midfielder in this team long term, RB is emergency cover rather than a role he does regularly.

• Stones is ideally playing center back for us and inverting depending on the game. DM is only emergency.

• Akanji has been doing an inverted role and not playing as a FB this season, mostly as Walker dominates those minutes at RB.

• LB and LCB is not a major issue with Gvardiol and Ake able to do both. Dias playing LCB is ideal alongside Stones or Akanji and RCB if partnered with Ake/Gvardiol.

• Kovacic has been best as a partner to Rodri in a double pivot, a sole six solution is one yet to be solved for us without Rodri in the team.

• In Nunes we have a player with a lot of talent but yet to be defined very well. Cannot be nailed on as reliable until we see more of him.

• Foden can be expected to operate in the middle moving forward.

• Doku has played predominately on the LW for us, Bobb getting minutes on both sides. Depending on Bernardo’s future, you can get light at RW very quickly.

• Apart from Foden and KDB in the middle, the only other reliable and consistent player at eight for us is Bernardo Silva. This is again very light for us long term.

Holes in the team to target

• Central Midfielder

• Right Winger

• Defender

• Fullback

Other positions to consider

• The long term impact of losing KDB as an attacking midfielder as he grows older, the talk of a Florian Wirtz or Musiala transfer to City seems more of a summer 2025 move. Both on the club situations these players have and having Foden move into a more central position.

• Bernardo Silva Future, with a release clause in place, the club will have to buy if he leaves. Very good chance he is staying but can’t be forgotten about.

• Ortega has done excellent as a back up, clearly able to be a first team player at a top club and will attract interest. Again, we must move for a quality option if that happens. Ideally a contract extension is agreed.

• Loan players this current season, are any of them able to push for squad places?

• Academy players, are any going to be pushing for squad spots in the summer?

5. Outline Target Positions

Here is our outline for the summer transfer window targets, what we will go after in the summer by position. All of which are key moves for the team rather than one being a do or die transfer.

• P1 CM - A player that will be able to cover Rodri to a very good level, not be a liability in that position nor completely expose us. As a rotation option there as well as doing the job long term in the event of an injury. Main role will then be to develop long term as an eight in the team, adding a more controlling element to the midfield tempo as well as being able to move box-to-box. Not established and a finished article as a player, elite in talent but with a big future.

• P2 RW - A right winger early in their career looking to progress. Quick, skillful and the ability to go each way. Show composure to their decision making, enough that can be built on. Must have very good crossing ability and variety to their game. Looking for a player that will earn the starting spot and compete with other internally for those minutes. Elite in talent but not a finished article. Willing to learn.

• P3 CB - With Stones injured the back line ball playing ability shifts a lot and I feel we also then get quite tight on rotation options. Persisting with the CB at FB set up means we need more depth. This is the window filled with elite talent at that position to get another player in. Able to play in the middle and learn from our other defenders. Bedding them in early. With Gvardiol at 22, lets add another of that age to the mix whilst giving the group more competition.

• P4 FB - With Kyle Walker struggling in performance and the volume of minutes at RB, we have to look at another option at the very least to take away minutes if not be in a place to take over. Looking for a player that matches up with a strong defensive profile and/or a significant attacking threat at RB. Must have physicality to keep up the pace for ninety minutes, handle the duels and wear of a league season.

These four players are what will be delved into during part two of our Summer Road Map series. Naming target options for the role, looking out our outgoings, the final shape of the team when the window closes and how all the loan players factor in. It will not be four £100mil players coming through the door either, must be realistic targets. All coming later this week…