STARTING POINT

Before getting into names for in-comings and outgoings I think it’s important to see the image above of the players lifting the Premier League trophy. Remind you that this team was in the FA Cup Final, lost to Real Madrid on penalties in the Champions League Quarter Final and picked up two other trophies in the CWC and Super Cup. That’s not bad.

My point being exactly how many points a team everyone was putting down picked up (91) this season, only nine other teams in the history of the Premier League had picked up more. That’s not bad either.

Erling Haaland had the second highest tally in his career for league goals (27). Phil Foden has ten more goal contributions this season (27) than he’s had in any other Premier League season before (22/23, 17). Julian Alvarez more than doubled his league goal contributions from last season (9) to this season (19). Bernardo Silva provided his most goal contributions for a single league season with Manchester City (15). Rodri had a career high for league goal contributions (17). Kevin De Bruyne missed half of the season and still finished 3rd in the Premier League for assists (10).

We’ve got a pretty good team that is progressing across the pitch, there problems from this season that will be solved internally and through tactical shifts. There are problems that will be solved through transfers. But all of those are small changes in direction not huge ones.

Manager Change?

One factor to consider heading into the window is the news everyone already knew was possible, Guardiola could leave in the summer of 2025. Quite clearly all reporting on this story do not have a clear indication of him leaving and its possible Guardiola decides to extend but it does muddy the water slightly for transfers.

Names mentioned include Xabi Alonso, Roberto De Zerbi, Julian Nagelsmann and Míchel which are all brilliant options tactically for Manchester City. You’d expect whoever arrives to have significant funds to build their team and make the big calls for aging senior players. One example of this is the goalkeeper, if Ederson leaves then would it not be best to stick with Ortega next season and then leave that long term decision to the new manager?

Our Problems?

I’ve included below a comparison of the 22/23 minutes across the the 23/24 season, showing you the departures and arrivals. You can see which players significantly increased their minutes and which players dropped off. It will also tell you that even with the best planning in the world you cannot predict the injuries (De Bruyne, Stones) and personal struggles (Grealish) players will have. You cannot predict which signings won’t be fully trusted by Guardiola (Nunes), which deals fall through (Paqueta) or expect a linear development of young players (Rico Lewis, Oscar Bobb).

At the end of this Ill go into the internal changes City can make, some of which I think will make significant differences to our performances. As for holes in the team and problems that we have I think a midfielder is quite obvious to everyone. High technical ability and creative from deep. Tenacious ball winner. Aggressive in second balls, bite in tackles and covers larges spaces well. Ideally cover the six position for Rodri rotation. Another winger to play on the right side, giving Foden the license to move centrally full time and must provide a goal threat. Finally a weapon to use either left or right back would be a bonus and very useful throughout the coming season. Providing City a different dynamic in the team and way to attack low locks. Beyond those three I think the rest of the transfers will be replacements only to players leaving and we will get into those situations.

Across the season I tracked the outfield player minutes, back four combinations and difference in minutes to 22/23 all in an open google sheet you can find here.

OUTGOINGS

Quick point to mention before going into the names is that I’m viewing this around the first team. Not to say the likes of James McAtee couldn’t be an excellent Premier League level player but making it into the Manchester City squad is a different level. Not only on quality, which McAtee absolutely has but also the space for your position and pathway to reach it.

On Loan

Taylor Harwood-Bellis is the first confirmed outgoing for 24/25 after Southampton were promoted to the Premier League (€23).

James McAtee has been linked to a Girona loan along with other Premier League clubs being interested in him. Either way I don’t see him being with the first team next season.

Callum Doyle seems likely to secure a permanent move to Leicester City now they’ve been promoted to the Premier League.

Maximo Perrone has had a very good loan spell at Las Palmas in La Liga and has been linked to another loan in Spain next season. I think he’s capable of a first team spot for the 25/26 season but another loan for now.

Joao Cancelo and Kalvin Phillips I’d expect to find a loan or sale option in the summer away from Manchester City. Either way they are both not joining the first team.

Claudio Echeverri is a tremendous talent and will likely be with the team for the 25/26 season. Finishing 2024 with River Plate and then going on loan for the final six months of the 24/25 season.

CFG

Issa Kabore has had a solid season individually with Luton Town in the Premier League and along with Yan Couto standing out at Girona, they are both likely to be sold in the summer.

First Team

Bernardo Silva has been linked every summer to a move away, or at least it feels like he has. A release clause in the contract, links to PSG and Barcelona and he’s coming towards the end of Pep’s time at City. Of all the older players in the squad Bernardo Silva seems the most likely to depart and would open up significant minutes for a midfielder and/or right winger.

Matheus Nunes has shown glimpses of his talent in the City team but has not convinced fans he’s got a pathway into the team. Along with the Saudi links and talk of a midfielder arriving in the summer. This sale seems increasingly possible.

Sergio Gomez has dropped from 962 minutes last season to 445 across all competitions this season. Looks set to leave City in the summer in search of more minutes and a chance to start regularly.

Replacements

These are players that I’d expect City to replace only if the player chooses to leave, they won’t be actively pushing them out the door and are less likely to happen than those mentioned above.

Ederson has been linked to a Saudi Pro League move recently whilst Stefan Ortega is weighing up a contract extension. The Brazilian will be the domino in this situation as Ortega will not jump too early when he could become the number one for City. Recently City have been linked to Michael Zetterer (28, Werder Bremen) who seems to be another Bundesliga gem like Ortega but this time with a release clause active to mid-June. Whoever stays will be the number one and Zetterer then arrives as the backup seems the most likely situation this summer. Álvaro Valles is another keeper they should consider looking at.

Kyle Walker was very close to a move last summer to Bayern Munich and for many reasons from personal ones to his minutes this season, I do not think that’s possible again in the summer. Heading towards a reduction in minutes next season and potentially leaving with Guardiola next summer.

Jack Grealish has had an inconsistent season that goes beyond injuries as covered in different articles, his disciplinary issues off the pitch. High wages, high profile as an England international and City would need at least a £50M fee for clearing their books. That makes the buyer list very small and the move unlikely but if a club came in then I think City are far more open to business than most think they are.

INCOMING

For this window I’ve picked out three players and included plenty of other options alongside each position. The thing to remember is these are my suggestions rather than definitive picks as it’s the profile of player that City NEED.

Central Midfielder - Bruno Guimarães

Bruno Guimaraes leads the Premier League for ground covered during the season, has drawn the most fouls in the league (108), third for successful take-ons and 5th for most progressive passes (283). He’ll bring the ‘bite’ City need in midfield, to coverage spaces next to Rodri and win duels.

Capable of covering as a six, Guimaraes will play as an eight or partner to Rodri in a double pivot. He can influence the game in all phases, from the buildup through to providing the final pass into Erling Haaland.

For more on Bruno Guimaraes check out a thread on him here.

Other options include Joao Neves at Benfica with a huge potential long term across all phases, brings the ground coverage we are looking for and is fantastic at winning duels. Wouldn’t be the six cover for Rodri but could work alongside a double pivot partner. Release clause over £100M. Alan Varela at Porto whose strengths lie in defensive contributions and passing from deep is also rumored to have a high release clause (£70M). Joshua Kimmich will also be on the radar for City should he look to leave Bayern Munich in the summer. Joao Gomes at Wolves has shown a lot of promise but it’s too early in his development for the move in my opinion. Adam Wharton is a fantastic talent at Crystal Palace and an English midfielder everyone will know about soon. Exequiel Palacios is an another excellent midfielder, playing for Bayer Leverkusen.

Right Winger - Sávio

It was confirmed by Fabrizo Romano that City will purchase Savio and bring him to the Etihad next season. Provding goals (9) and assists (10) in La Liga for Girona. Leads the league for successful take-ons (104), progressive carries (181) and progressive passes received (372). Capable of playing either wing but will be able to cut inside on the RW like what we saw from Riyad Mahrez.

Savio will bring City back to the Sane/Sterling days, provide Guardiola with a different way to press from the front and a dangerous threat from the RW that City have lacked this season since Bernardo Silva/Kyle Walker have been playing down that side.

For more on Savio check out a thread on him here.

Other options for a right winger include the likes of Michael Olise at Crystal Palace who wouldn’t be cheap. Pedro Neto at Wolves is very talented and provides a threat in behind with Haaland but his injury record is a big risk.

We cannot forget Oscar Bobb whose just broken into the first team squad, although he’s talented I think it’s foolish to expect many minutes than he got during this season. For the next one it’s different, he's clearly been trusted by Pep in big moments before and will have to fight for a spot. Bringing in Savio provides competition for the spot but a player that brings a different skill set to Bobb. Not blocking the pathway for him but keeping it competitive.

Full Back - Michael Kayode

The game against Spurs during the title run-in is just the most recent reminder that if City had a dangerous threat at RB then they could have exploited teams down that side this season. Michael Kayode is part of the new Italian stars emerging and at RB he is a physical monster. He’d bring the athletic ability City would lose without Kyle Walker in the side, winning duels and coverage the ground up the flank. His technical ability coming inside on the ball are in need of improvement and with Walker possibly leaving next summer this would be the right time to bring him in, learn the role and develop for more minutes the season after.

For more on Michael Kayode check out a thread on him here.

Other options that I’d consider on either side would be Miguel Gutierrez at Girona who inverts from LB. Milos Kerkez is a LB to watch next season, quite the talent who needs consistent minutes at Bournemouth. Jeremie Frimpong is another fantastic attacking threat from RB currently playing for Bayer Leverkusen and would be the kinda of RB to expose the spaces in behind Walker couldn’t this season. Rayan Ait-Nouri for Wolves at LB has impressed this season. Ian Maatsen another name to look at.

A different way of approaching the full back situation could be to promote Rico Lewis internally for more minutes although I see his best position and future in midfield. An internal solution to RB seems the most likely situation this summer. City could also go the route of moving Akanji over to RB like in the 22/23 season to make room for a new CB since you have talents emerging in Jarred Branthwaite, Leny Yoro and Scalvini to name a few.

Pre-Season

Final point to mention is the upcoming pre-season tour for Manchester City which in the United States will be after a long off-season for the players. Plenty will miss it and returning during parts due to international tournaments. With that brings opportunities for the likes of Haaland to get fully fit and sharp. Nunes, Rico Lewis and Oscar Bobb to work themselves into the lineup. Academy players like Jacob Wright and others could impress Guardiola. It’s a small detail but we’ve seen how big of a difference this made for Rico Lewis to quickly go from an unknown to a first team player.

Final Squad Makeup

Here is a look at the team when including those transfers and the first team out goings mentioned. This is NOT an indication of the system used, starting eleven and the pecking order. Just an overview of how the positions are covered.

Internal Changes?

There are a couple key areas for me next season that don’t require a transfer. Too many times we’ve been poorly organised as a back line dealing with balls in behind. One of the defenders, since they all have done it, is always out of position to play an off side trap and is in a poor position to recover. That must improve.

OOP in transition City have been caught out in the midfield by not having a compact shape and expecting Rodri to cover too much space. Kovacic helped to fix that along with Gvardiol during the title run-in.

Pull Kevin De Bruyne deeper is the last of three changes I want to see next season, not every game but some of them. The United game last weekend is just one example of wasting De Bruyne between the lines when his passing from deep could be much more effective.

That’s all for this newsletter giving you an updated look at the transfer window and my thoughts on how it plays out. I’m more conservative than most of the opinions seen online and expect that the focus is on a couple high quality additions rather than a big summer rebuild. If Guardiola leaves then that huge shake up will happen with the new manager.

Until then we will park that thought of Pep leaving and remember that we have an exceptional team capable of winning it all next season. We just need a couple tweaks internally and with transfers. Oh and luck to be in our favor as we found again this season, the margins to win are always fine.

If you are still in search of more Sky Blue Times content then you can check out the two threads I’ve linked below on Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez. How good has their season been compared to the criticism they’ve had and what do the stats say?

LAST WORD👋

How am I doing?

I’d love to hear more from readers and I’m always looking for feedback. How am I doing with Sky Blue Times? Is there anything you’d like to see more or less of? Which aspects of the newsletter and our content do you enjoy the most?

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Thank you,

Bailey