Wolves vs Manchester City Preview

Premier League GW8

The Premier League returns this weekend and already we’ve had some huge results as Bournemouth beat Arsenal, Leicester won a crucial game against Southampton, and Manchester United fell into a win. With a title rival dropping points and Liverpool to play Chelsea later today, Manchester City must win against Wolves (A). I’m sure that was an easy fixture last season.

There is no denying City should be winning the next two fixtures against Wolves (A) and Sparta Prague (H). I’d mentioned before that we are yet to see our top scorers emerge other than Haaland but now you are seeing some players start to stand out. Rico Lewis with four assists. Bernardo Silva with a goal and three assists. Expect De Bruyne to join them when he returns and Foden when back up to match fitness.

It’s too early to know where Chelsea will be competing in the league, a win against Liverpool will generate title talk but I’d expect them to be very competitive for the top four. Villa seems built for the long run and Spurs will eventually get the results their performances suggest. Brighton has an excellent chance to return to Europe in some form but at Newcastle, we could be watching the beginning of Eddie Howe losing his job. There is no injury to blame anymore.

Previous Results

• Manchester City won their last two matches before the international break against Slovan Bratislava (0-4) and Fulham (3-2).

• Wolves lost their last two matches before the International break against Liverpool (1-2) and Brentford (3-5).

Notable Injuries:

• Manchester City is without Rodri (knee) and Oscar Bobb (other). Kevin De Bruyne and Nathan Ake are both expected to return after the International break, but the extent of their involvement has yet to be confirmed.

• Wolves are expected to be without Yerson Mosquera (knee), Boubacar Traore (knee), Enso Medina (knee), and Sasa Kalajdzic (knee). Hee-Chan Hwang (ankle) and Bastien Menadjou are being assessed before kick-off.

Interesting Wolves Stats:

• Only Ipswich and Leicester have created less xG than Wolves (6.61) this season. They have conceded the most goals in the Premier League (21), most shots on target (47), and the most goals from set-pieces (6).

• Wolves have allowed the most headed goals in the league (6) and second most headed shots (22).

• Wolves have conceded the 2nd most shots from a fast break (9).

• Joao Gomes leads the team for progressive passes (27), passes into the final third (26), tackles won (15), and ball recoveries (36).

Minutes Tracker

You can find linked below the live minutes tracker for this season, which you can use to see how an individual’s minutes have evolved across a season. Whether they have had a rest recently as Ederson did against Bratislava (A), or if a player has not started for a while, like Kyle Walker not starting since Newcastle (A).

There is also a sheet on our back four combinations used by the game, last season there wasn’t a clear first choice for most of the season but this time around there is in Gvardiol, Akanji, Dias, and Lewis.

Wolves Setup

Looking back at the defeat from last season, Wolves’ setup was as good as the City's performance was poor. Using a three at the back to ensure Haaland was frequently covered by two of them. Having the support inside from Joao Gomes so that Semedo can deal with Jeremy Doku.

Gary O’Neil did break down their approach for Monday Night Football which you can find linked below. The extra man in Toti who can jump forward to chase Foden. Cunha making it very difficult for Kovacic on the ball to have time. Dawson sticking with Haaland in the box, not handing him off to another CB.

Important to note that Bernardo Silva was not in the squad for that match, Rodri was suspended, Grealish had just come back from an injury, Nunes had only started two matches prior and Doku had only completely 90 minutes once for the team. Still, the team gave away the ball in poor positions, struggled to win the ball high up the pitch, or slow down any transitions from Wolves.

This season Wolves have used a compact 4-4-2 to defend but it hasn’t been well organized. Struggling to defend transitions and have a midfielder capable of covering the central space. New signing Andre is an excellent prospect that Wolves will hope solves that problem in time but it can take a while to adapt coming from South America. In possession, they’ll shift to a 3-4-3 with the single pivot in front to help buildup but that unit is often found disconnected from the forward line.

Out wide they can be threatening, particularly when Rayan Aït-Nouri is given support. Joao Gomes is excellent at carrying the ball and can be that support when pulling out wide.

Wolves have the third-highest percentage of goalkeeper passes launched (49.1%) whereas their goal-kicks Wolves prefer to play it short, only launching them (29.4%) of the time. Ranking bottom for PSxG± (-4.7) Wolves have struggled to compete in matches with the volume of goals they are conceding. Even giving up two penalty kicks and four corner goals, they are coming in from everywhere. There is no one specific area they are vulnerable.

Opta Analyst did a deep dive into how Premier League teams attack corners this season which you can find here. Wolves’ main taker is Cunha, providing an inswinger on their left side and an outswinger on the right. They have yet to score a goal from a corner kick.

One point to bear in mind this early into the season is how much the fixture schedule can influence your perceptions of teams. There is no doubt they’ve had poor performances but the schedule difficulty cannot be ignored for Wolves.

This time around Wolves do not have Pedro Neto as the outlet on the right wing. No Max Kilman who joined West Ham in the summer, he was excellent against City last season to help deal with Haaland as well as use his long passing to get Wolves out down their right side. Hee-Chan is out injured. Besides those, the rest of the team will be well aware of the game plan to beat City.

This would be the setup I’d expect from Wolves, the only question is whether they play two strikers or one. Andre is a talented midfielder, the kind of six many top clubs will want should he settle in and perform. An awful lot of carrying threats out wide from Wolves but not the incisive passers in the middle.

Rodrigo Gomes is a replacement for Pedro Neto who hasn’t settled in yet, neither has Carlos Forbs, a former City academy player. Ones to watch off the bench should City struggle to kill off the match early on.

Manchester City Setup 

Two points to watch in the match is how Wolves intend to set up out of possession. Now I think that without Rodri playing as the six, you can have joy by pressing Kovacic. Fulham did just that, applying pressure at the right time. Cunha is quite adept at dropping in when need be so O’Neil could play him next to Larsen to ensure Kovacic never gets to settle on the ball and have two players ready to spring forward into a counterattack. Just like Inter Milan. Then Ait-Nouri and Gomes have the athleticism to support.

The issue is whether you trust your midfield three to deal with the remaining players finding space between the lines. Fulham played with a 5-4-1 with Jimenez dropping as he needed to, Iwobi at RWB to spring forward and Traore tucked inside. A good balance between counter-attacking options and a compact OOP shape.

As a result of this, I think that may force O’Neil to play with Cunha as the sole striker to track Kovacic and drop in when need be. Let the back three of Manchester City have possession and keep four midfielders to prevent passes between the lines. If that’s the case it’s important that the back line is capable of providing line-breaking passes and you’ve got someone on the wing that can find separation to create chances.

Final Predictions

Ones to Watch: 

Similar to Matheus Nunes when he was at Wolves, Joao Gomes is a player you’ll see the quality and value in but wonder if he’s developed enough to make the next step forward. Leads Wolves for progressive passes, 2nd in the team for progressive carries. It’s his relentless energy off the ball, proactive approach to winning the ball back, and capabilities box-to-box that are a real standout but he’s yet to put to all together.

For Manchester City there is a huge Rodri-shaped hole in the team that Mateo Kovacic is trying to cover for, whether you you like him playing in that role or not it seems he’s the preferred option for Guardiola. At least to January. The performances and results of the team will depend partially on how well Kovacic does. For the most part, I think he’s done as well as he can, bearing in mind his skillset, but the structure around him needs to be tweaked.

Predicted Lineup:

Predicted Score: Wolves 0 - 3 Manchester City

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